Light & Wonder Inc (LNW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Jun 8, 2026: fair value of Light & Wonder Inc $106, price $86.22, upside +23.1%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $37.49 – $121.81 · fair‑value band $54.41 – $153.15 · the $86.22 price screens below the $106.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Light & Wonder, Inc. operates as a cross-platform games company in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Gaming, SciPlay, and iGaming segments.
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Light & Wonder, Inc. operates as a cross-platform games company in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Gaming, SciPlay, and iGaming segments. The Gaming segment sells game content and gaming machine; video gaming terminals; video lottery terminals, including conversion kits and spare parts; and table game products, including automatic card shufflers, deck checkers, table roulette chip sorters and other land-based table gaming equipment. It also leases or provides gaming content, gaming machines, and server-based system; sells and supports casino-management system based software and hardware; and licenses proprietary table games content to commercial, tribal, and governmental gaming operators. The SciPlay segment develops, markets, and operates social games on various online platforms. It sells virtual coins, chips, or bingo cards, which players can use to play slot games, table games, and bingo games. The iGaming segment provides a suite of digital gaming content, distribution platforms, player account management systems, and other iGaming content and services. This segment also offers the Open Platform System, which offers a range of reporting and administrative functions and tools providing operators control over various areas of digital gaming operations. Light & Wonder, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Stock analysis
Light & Wonder Inc (LNW) currently trades at $86.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $106.14, implying the stock looks roughly 18.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $114.52 per share, and 12 of the 24 models we run sit above the $86.22 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $13.89, and 12 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $54.41 (bear) to $153.15 (bull), the price of $86.22 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Light & Wonder Inc reported revenue of $3.3B in FY2025 versus $2.2B in FY2021, a compound +11.4%/yr. Reported net income was $454M in FY2025, compounding +5.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $7.3B · P/S ratio 2.18 · EPS (TTM) $4.58 · Net margin 13.7% · Return on equity 50.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6% · Operating margin 27.9% · Revenue (TTM) $3.2B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 23%, LNW screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $54.41Fair Value $106.14Bull $153.15
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.46 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.9% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−14% → 21%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.9% a year for the price and +5.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gambling · 47 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside+37.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)50.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)12.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)27.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity15.70× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Gambling median · lower = cheaper
P/B29.91× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Light & Wonder Inc (LNW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $106.14 versus the last price from Jun 8, 2026 of $86.22, about +23% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of LNW?
Our model-based fair value for Light & Wonder Inc is $106.14 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jun 8, 2026): $86.22.
What is the quality score of LNW?
Light & Wonder Inc has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Light & Wonder Inc (LNW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $106.14 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $54.41, optimistic scenario $153.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Light & Wonder Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $106.14, about +23% upside versus the last price from Jun 8, 2026 of $86.22 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $54.41, optimistic scenario $153.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Light & Wonder Inc (LNW)?
Light & Wonder Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Light & Wonder Inc (LNW)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Light & Wonder Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +14.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LNW use?
Our models discount Light & Wonder Inc at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.41, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Light & Wonder Inc that is +14.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Light & Wonder Inc (LNW) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Light & Wonder Inc grew +14.3 % a year. The price currently implies +14.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Light & Wonder Inc (LNW) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Light & Wonder Inc (+14.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Light & Wonder Inc (LNW)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.60 %: that much free cash flow Light & Wonder Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Light & Wonder Inc (LNW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Light & Wonder Inc it is $106.14 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $86.22. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Light & Wonder Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, LNW trades below its calculated fair value: price $86.22, fair value $106.14, a gap of about +23% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LNW?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($86.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($106.14). For Light & Wonder Inc the two are $19.92 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Light & Wonder Inc worth?
The market values Light & Wonder Inc at about $7.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $86.22; our models calculate a fair value of $106.14 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LNW?
Our models span a range for Light & Wonder Inc: cautious scenario $54.41, base $106.14, optimistic $153.15 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $86.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of LNW?
The PEG ratio of Light & Wonder Inc is 0.53 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Light & Wonder Inc (LNW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Light & Wonder Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 50.5%, debt of 15.70 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LNW from its 52-week high?
Light & Wonder Inc trades at $86.22, about 29% below its 52-week high of $121.81 and 21% above the low of $71.41 (as of Jun 8, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $106.14 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Light & Wonder Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Evolution AB, Flutter Entertainment plc, The Lottery Corporation, Lottomatica Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Light & Wonder Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $86.22, calculated fair value $106.14 (+23%), Quality Score 63/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LNW calculated?
We run Light & Wonder Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $106.14, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Light & Wonder Inc currently trades 19 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Light & Wonder Inc (LNW)?
The latest price we hold is from Jun 8, 2026 and stands at $86.22. Our model-based fair value is $106.14, about +23% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Light & Wonder Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($54.41 to $153.15). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Light & Wonder Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Light & Wonder Inc (LNW)?
The market capitalisation of Light & Wonder Inc is $7.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Light & Wonder Inc (LNW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Light & Wonder Inc is 2.18 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Light & Wonder Inc (LNW)?
Earnings per share at Light & Wonder Inc are $4.58. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Light & Wonder Inc (LNW)?
The net margin of Light & Wonder Inc is 13.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Light & Wonder Inc (LNW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Light & Wonder Inc is 50.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Light & Wonder Inc (LNW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Light & Wonder Inc is 7.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Light & Wonder Inc (LNW)?
The operating margin of Light & Wonder Inc is 27.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Light & Wonder Inc (LNW)?
Revenue at Light & Wonder Inc is growing +2.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Light & Wonder Inc (LNW)?
Earnings per share at Light & Wonder Inc are growing +88.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Light & Wonder Inc (LNW) hold?
Light & Wonder Inc holds more cash than debt, $85.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Sep 24, 2026