Lovisa Holdings (LOV) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · AU · Market cap A$2.6B
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +19.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 37% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (A$12.78 to A$29.49) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$11.08 – A$41.82 · fair‑value band A$12.78 – A$29.49 · the A$27.10 price screens above the A$17.15 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Lovisa Holdings (LOV) currently trades at A$27.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$17.15, implying the stock looks roughly 36.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Lovisa Holdings generated revenue of A$893M at a net margin of 9.8%. Revenue grew 23.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 82.6%. Net debt stands at A$457M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$12.78 (bear case) to A$29.49 (bull case); at A$27.10, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -24% fair-value upside, at -37%, LOV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (A$31.13) versus Asset-Based (A$0.4800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Lovisa Holdings Limited engages in the retail sale of fashion jewelry and accessories. The company designs, develops, sources, and merchandises fashion jewelry, body and piercings, accessories, and gifts products under the Lovisa brand name. It also retails its products online.
Full company description
Lovisa Holdings Limited engages in the retail sale of fashion jewelry and accessories. The company designs, develops, sources, and merchandises fashion jewelry, body and piercings, accessories, and gifts products under the Lovisa brand name. It also retails its products online. It operated its retail and franchise stores in Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Vietnam, China, South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, the United Arab Emirates, the United States, Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, Spain, France, Luxembourg, Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, Switzerland, Poland, Italy, Hungary, Romania, Ireland, Zambia, South America, and the Middle East. Lovisa Holdings Limited was founded in 2010 and is based in Hawthorn, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Lovisa Holdings reported revenue of A$798M in FY2025 versus A$288M in FY2021, a compound +29.0%/yr. Reported net income was A$86.3M in FY2025, compounding +36.6%/yr from FY2021.
LOV screens 37% overvalued. Compare with Casey's General Stores, Inc →
Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 221 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $827.04 | $405.44 | -51% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $222.84 | $164.16 | -26% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $479.57 | $488.39 | +2% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $208.89 | $181.10 | -13% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $83.98 | $109.12 | +30% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥52.90 | ¥40.40 | -24% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $31.01 | $35.52 | +15% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $618.57 | $423.35 | -32% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $197.71 | $117.29 | -41% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 110.50 TWD | 80.98 TWD | -27% |
Compare Lovisa Holdings with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Cyclical stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Lovisa Holdings (LOV) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of LOV?
What is the quality score of LOV?
What is the revenue of Lovisa Holdings (LOV)?
What is the net profit margin of LOV?
Does Lovisa Holdings pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Lovisa Holdings and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.