Lovisa Holdings Ltd (LOV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Lovisa Holdings Ltd stock A$31.31, price A$28.46, upside +10.0%, quality 74 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$11.23 – A$41.21 · fair‑value band A$21.37 – A$40.70 · the A$28.46 price screens below the A$31.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
Follow Lovisa Holdings in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Lovisa Holdings is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Lovisa Holdings Limited engages in the retail sale of fashion jewelry and accessories. The company designs, develops, sources, and merchandises fashion jewelry, body and piercings, accessories, and gifts products under the Lovisa brand name. It also retails its products online.
Show moreShow less
It operated its retail and franchise stores in Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Vietnam, China, South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, the United Arab Emirates, the United States, Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, Spain, France, Luxembourg, Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, Switzerland, Poland, Italy, Hungary, Romania, Ireland, Zambia, South America, and the Middle East.
Lovisa Holdings Limited was founded in 2010 and is based in Hawthorn, Australia.
Stock analysis
Lovisa Holdings Ltd (LOV) currently trades at A$28.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$31.31, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.1%).
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$31.14 per share, and 9 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$28.46 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at A$8.11, and 17 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$21.37 (bear) to A$40.70 (bull), the price of A$28.46 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Lovisa Holdings Ltd reported revenue of A$939M in FY2026 versus A$459M in FY2022, a compound +19.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$95.6M in FY2026, compounding +13.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$3.2B (≈ $2.2B) Mid · P/E ratio 33.0 · P/S ratio 3.36 · EPS (TTM) A$0.8629 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 10.2% · Return on equity 122% · Return on assets (EBIT) 22.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 71 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at 10%, LOV screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$21.37Fair Value A$31.31BullA$40.70
Price A$28.46 · Upside +10.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +19.9% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.2%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+33.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+30.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.30.3% vs 12.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 21%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.0% a year for the price and +7.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 203 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)122.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets13.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)10.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)15.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.12× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)33.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B40.44× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.36× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)19.2× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Lovisa Holdings Ltd (LOV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$31.31 versus a price of A$28.46, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of LOV?
Our model-based fair value for Lovisa Holdings Ltd is A$31.31 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$28.46.
What is the quality score of LOV?
Lovisa Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lovisa Holdings Ltd (LOV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$31.31 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$21.37, optimistic scenario A$40.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lovisa Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$31.31, about +10% upside versus a price of A$28.46 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario A$21.37, optimistic scenario A$40.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lovisa Holdings Ltd (LOV)?
Lovisa Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$939M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Lovisa Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Lovisa Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 3.02% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Lovisa Holdings Ltd (LOV) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Lovisa Holdings Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.86 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 15, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2015. The payout ratio is 94.9% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 101%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.72 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Lovisa Holdings Ltd (LOV)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lovisa Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +13.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +26.7 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LOV use?
Our models discount Lovisa Holdings Ltd at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.15, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lovisa Holdings Ltd that is +13.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lovisa Holdings Ltd (LOV) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lovisa Holdings Ltd grew +26.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +13.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lovisa Holdings Ltd (LOV) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lovisa Holdings Ltd (+13.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lovisa Holdings Ltd (LOV)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.20 %: that much free cash flow Lovisa Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lovisa Holdings Ltd (LOV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lovisa Holdings Ltd it is A$31.31 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of A$28.46. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Lovisa Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, LOV trades below its calculated fair value: price A$28.46, fair value A$31.31, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LOV?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$28.46); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$31.31). For Lovisa Holdings Ltd the two are A$2.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lovisa Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Lovisa Holdings Ltd at about A$3.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is A$28.46; our models calculate a fair value of A$31.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LOV?
Our models span a range for Lovisa Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario A$21.37, base A$31.31, optimistic A$40.70 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price A$28.46). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LOV?
Lovisa Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.0 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$31.31 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 30.9 (reported 33.0). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2026 ex one-offs: 34.2. Other multiples: P/B 40.4, P/S 3.4, EV/EBITDA 14.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lovisa Holdings Ltd (LOV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lovisa Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 122.2%, debt of 1.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LOV from its 52-week high?
Lovisa Holdings Ltd trades at A$28.46, about 19% below its 52-week high of A$35.22 and 42% above the low of A$19.98 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$31.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lovisa Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lovisa Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price A$28.46, calculated fair value A$31.31 (+10%), Quality Score 74/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LOV calculated?
We run Lovisa Holdings Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$31.31 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Lovisa Holdings Ltd currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lovisa Holdings Ltd (LOV)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was A$28.46. Our model-based fair value is A$31.31, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lovisa Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (A$21.37 to A$40.70) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Lovisa Holdings Ltd (LOV) come from?
Earnings per share at Lovisa Holdings Ltd grew +14.2 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +19.5 %, EBIT margin −2.0 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Lovisa Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Lovisa Holdings Ltd (LOV)?
The market capitalisation of Lovisa Holdings Ltd is A$3.2B (≈ $2.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lovisa Holdings Ltd (LOV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lovisa Holdings Ltd is 3.36 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lovisa Holdings Ltd (LOV)?
Earnings per share at Lovisa Holdings Ltd are A$0.8629 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lovisa Holdings Ltd (LOV)?
The dividend yield of Lovisa Holdings Ltd is 3.0% (payout 94.9%, on adjusted earnings, reported 101%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lovisa Holdings Ltd (LOV)?
The net margin of Lovisa Holdings Ltd is 10.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lovisa Holdings Ltd (LOV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lovisa Holdings Ltd is 122% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lovisa Holdings Ltd (LOV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lovisa Holdings Ltd is 22.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lovisa Holdings Ltd (LOV)?
The operating margin of Lovisa Holdings Ltd is 15.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lovisa Holdings Ltd (LOV)?
Revenue at Lovisa Holdings Ltd is growing +11.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lovisa Holdings Ltd (LOV)?
Earnings per share at Lovisa Holdings Ltd are growing +26.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Lovisa Holdings Ltd (LOV) carry?
The net debt of Lovisa Holdings Ltd is A$472M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Lovisa Holdings Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Lovisa Holdings Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 8, 2026