Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $5.3B
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation
LPX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $26.39 to $26.41 (+0.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +8.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 66% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($37.97). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($19.81 to $37.97) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $45.96 – $117.87 · fair‑value band $19.81 – $37.97 · the $78.51 price screens above the $26.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) currently trades at $78.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.41, implying the stock looks roughly 66.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Louisiana-Pacific Corporation generated revenue of $2.6B at a net margin of 3.2%. Revenue declined 20.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.8%. Net debt stands at $109M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $19.81 (bear case) to $37.97 (bull case); at $78.51, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -33% fair-value upside, at -66%, LPX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($35.53) versus Dividend Discount ($11.18). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides building solutions for applications in new home construction, repair and remodeling, and outdoor structure markets in the United States, Canada, and South America. It operates through Siding and Oriented Strand Board (OSB) segments.
Full company description
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides building solutions for applications in new home construction, repair and remodeling, and outdoor structure markets in the United States, Canada, and South America. It operates through Siding and Oriented Strand Board (OSB) segments. The Siding segment consists of a portfolio of engineered wood siding, trim, soffit, and fascia products; and primed products, including LP SmartSide trim and siding, LP BuilderSeries Lap Siding, and LP Outdoor Building Solutions; and LP SmartSide ExpertFinish trim and siding pre-finished products. The OSB segment manufactures and distributes OSB structural panel products, including the value-added OSB product portfolio comprising LP Structural Solutions, which includes LP FlameBlock Fire-Rated Sheathing, LP WeatherLogic Air and Water Barrier, LP TechShield Radiant Barrier, LP Legacy Premium Sub-Flooring, and LP TopNotch 350 Durable Sub-Flooring. In addition, the company provides other operations, including timber and timberlands, as well as other minor products, services, and closed operations. The company sells its products primarily to retailers, wholesalers, home building, and industrial businesses in North America and South America. Louisiana-Pacific Corporation was incorporated in 1972 and is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation reported revenue of $2.7B in FY2025 versus $3.9B in FY2021, a compound −8.8%/yr. Reported net income was $146M in FY2025, compounding −42.9%/yr from FY2021.
LPX screens 66% overvalued. Compare with Trane Technologies plc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Louisiana-Pacific Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
- Louisiana-Pacific Corp (LPX) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Siding Strength Offsets OSB ...
- Louisiana-Pacific Corporation Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary
Peer Group
Building Products & Equipment · 247 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Building Products & Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trane Technologies plc TT | $469.98 | $212.34 | -55% |
| Johnson Controls International plc JCI | $142.81 | $45.65 | -68% |
| Carrier Global Corporation CARR | $68.61 | $17.35 | -75% |
| Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A SGO | €76.62 | €101.60 | +33% |
| Geberit AG GEBN | CHF 523.20 | CHF 307.66 | -41% |
| Lennox International Inc LII | $543.93 | $363.09 | -33% |
| Kingspan Group KRX | €87.30 | €70.76 | -19% |
| Masco Corporation MAS | $78.04 | $54.36 | -30% |
| PT Impack Pratama Industri Tbk, IMPC | 1,420 IDR | 179.76 IDR | -87% |
| NIBE Industrier AB NIBEB | kr 36.03 | kr 25.37 | -30% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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