Lycopodium Ltd (LYL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Lycopodium Ltd A$25.25, price A$23.33, upside +8.2%, quality 71 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$3.21 – A$23.33 · fair‑value band A$16.94 – A$37.75 · the A$23.33 price screens below the A$25.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Lycopodium Limited provides engineering and project delivery services in the resources, rail infrastructure, and industrial processes sectors in Australia. It operates through four segments: Resources, Industrial Process, Rail Infrastructure, and Others.
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Lycopodium Limited provides engineering and project delivery services in the resources, rail infrastructure, and industrial processes sectors in Australia. It operates through four segments: Resources, Industrial Process, Rail Infrastructure, and Others. The company offers engineering and related services, including process plant and equipment, civil building works, control systems, services, and infrastructure to the mining industry; and engineering and related services to manufacturing and renewable energy facilities. It also provides asset management, engineering, architectural and project delivery services to private and public clients; and metallurgical consulting services to mineral processing community in the field of comminution, hydrometallurgy, and mineral processing design. In addition, the company offers feasibility studies and advisory; process development and optimization; process control and optimization; project management and control; construction management; commissioning and operation support; and performance assessment and improvement. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in East Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Lycopodium Ltd (LYL) currently trades at A$23.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$25.25, implying the stock looks roughly 7.6% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$18.90 per share, and 3 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$23.33 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$2.56, and 21 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$16.94 (bear) to A$37.75 (bull), the price of A$23.33 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Lycopodium Ltd reported revenue of A$334M in FY2025 versus A$158M in FY2021, a compound +20.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$42.2M in FY2025, compounding +31.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$927M (≈ $650M) · P/E ratio 26.2 · P/S ratio 3.31 · EPS (TTM) A$0.8900 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 12.6% · Return on equity 24.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 20.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 101% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at 8%, LYL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$16.94Fair Value A$25.25Bull A$37.75
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.4200 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.5% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+26.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+24.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.25% vs 28%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 16%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 839 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)24% · Top 25%
Return on assets11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)10% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.0% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lycopodium Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LYL
Frequently asked questions
Is Lycopodium Ltd (LYL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$25.25 versus a price of A$23.33, about +8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of LYL?
Our model-based fair value for Lycopodium Ltd is A$25.25 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$23.33.
What is the quality score of LYL?
Lycopodium Ltd has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lycopodium Ltd (LYL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$25.25 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$16.94, optimistic scenario A$37.75. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lycopodium Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$25.25, about +8% upside versus a price of A$23.33 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario A$16.94, optimistic scenario A$37.75. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lycopodium Ltd (LYL)?
Lycopodium Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$342M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Lycopodium Ltd pay a dividend?
Lycopodium Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.01% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Lycopodium Ltd (LYL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lycopodium Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +12.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.1 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LYL use?
Our models discount Lycopodium Ltd at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.16, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lycopodium Ltd that is +12.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lycopodium Ltd (LYL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lycopodium Ltd grew +10.1 % a year. The price currently implies +12.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lycopodium Ltd (LYL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lycopodium Ltd (+12.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lycopodium Ltd (LYL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.80 %: that much free cash flow Lycopodium Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lycopodium Ltd (LYL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lycopodium Ltd it is A$25.25 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$23.33. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lycopodium Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, LYL trades below its calculated fair value: price A$23.33, fair value A$25.25, a gap of about +8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LYL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$23.33); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$25.25). For Lycopodium Ltd the two are A$1.92 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lycopodium Ltd worth?
The market values Lycopodium Ltd at about A$927M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$23.33; our models calculate a fair value of A$25.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LYL?
Our models span a range for Lycopodium Ltd: cautious scenario A$16.94, base A$25.25, optimistic A$37.75 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$23.33). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LYL?
Lycopodium Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$25.25 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.4, P/B 4.3, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 12.1.
What is the PEG ratio of LYL?
The PEG ratio of Lycopodium Ltd is 2.44 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lycopodium Ltd (LYL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lycopodium Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 24.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LYL from its 52-week high?
Lycopodium Ltd trades at A$23.33, at its 52-week high of A$23.33 and 101% above the low of A$11.58 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$25.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lycopodium Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lycopodium Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$23.33, calculated fair value A$25.25 (+8%), Quality Score 71/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LYL calculated?
We run Lycopodium Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$25.25, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Lycopodium Ltd currently trades 8 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lycopodium Ltd (LYL)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$23.33. Our model-based fair value is A$25.25, about +8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lycopodium Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (A$16.94 to A$37.75) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Lycopodium Ltd (LYL) come from?
Earnings per share at Lycopodium Ltd grew +33.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.1 %, EBIT margin +20.1 %, tax rate +3.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Lycopodium Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Lycopodium Ltd (LYL)?
The market capitalisation of Lycopodium Ltd is A$927M (≈ $650M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lycopodium Ltd (LYL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lycopodium Ltd is 3.31 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lycopodium Ltd (LYL)?
Earnings per share at Lycopodium Ltd are A$0.8900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lycopodium Ltd (LYL)?
The dividend yield of Lycopodium Ltd is 2.0% (payout 52.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lycopodium Ltd (LYL)?
The net margin of Lycopodium Ltd is 12.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lycopodium Ltd (LYL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lycopodium Ltd is 24.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lycopodium Ltd (LYL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lycopodium Ltd is 20.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lycopodium Ltd (LYL)?
The operating margin of Lycopodium Ltd is 13.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lycopodium Ltd (LYL)?
Revenue at Lycopodium Ltd is growing +4.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lycopodium Ltd (LYL)?
Earnings per share at Lycopodium Ltd are growing −27.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Lycopodium Ltd (LYL) hold?
Lycopodium Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$62.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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