Lycopodium Limited (LYL) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · AU · Market cap A$732M
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from A$20.46 to A$20.53 (+0.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +1.2% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range (A$13.21 to A$26.13) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$3.21 – A$19.28 · fair‑value band A$13.21 – A$26.13 · the A$19.11 price screens below the A$20.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Lycopodium Limited (LYL) currently trades at A$19.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$20.53, implying the stock looks roughly 7.4% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Lycopodium Limited generated revenue of A$342M at a net margin of 10.3%. Revenue grew 4.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 24.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$62.6M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$13.21 (bear case) to A$26.13 (bull case); at A$19.11, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 98% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at 7%, LYL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (A$18.75) versus Asset-Based (A$2.56). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 88
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Lycopodium Limited provides engineering and project delivery services in the resources, rail infrastructure, and industrial processes sectors in Australia. It operates through four segments: Resources, Industrial Process, Rail Infrastructure, and Others.
Full company description
Lycopodium Limited provides engineering and project delivery services in the resources, rail infrastructure, and industrial processes sectors in Australia. It operates through four segments: Resources, Industrial Process, Rail Infrastructure, and Others. The company offers engineering and related services, including process plant and equipment, civil building works, control systems, services, and infrastructure to the mining industry; and engineering and related services to manufacturing and renewable energy facilities. It also provides asset management, engineering, architectural and project delivery services to private and public clients; and metallurgical consulting services to mineral processing community in the field of comminution, hydrometallurgy, and mineral processing design. In addition, the company offers feasibility studies and advisory; process development and optimization; process control and optimization; project management and control; construction management; commissioning and operation support; and performance assessment and improvement. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in East Perth, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Lycopodium Limited reported revenue of A$334M in FY2025 versus A$158M in FY2021, a compound +20.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$42.2M in FY2025, compounding +31.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +10.2 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.1 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Engineering & Construction · 839 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹3,815 | ₹1,994 | -48% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 346,000 KRW | 268,779 KRW | -22% |
| Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co 000720 | 99,000 KRW | 63,993 KRW | -35% |
| United Integrated Services Co 2404 | 1,250 TWD | 925.62 TWD | -26% |
| Samsung E&A Co 028050 | 42,550 KRW | 44,840 KRW | +5% |
| Rail Vikas Nigam Limited RVNL | ₹232.67 | ₹61.46 | -74% |
| Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co 047040 | 16,240 KRW | 6,507 KRW | -60% |
| NBCC (India) Limited NBCC | ₹96.32 | ₹48.22 | -50% |
| Cemindia Projects Limited CEMPRO | ₹1,330 | ₹730.69 | -45% |
| KEPCO Engineering & Construction Company 052690 | 92,700 KRW | 20,172 KRW | -78% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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