Verve Group (M8G) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · SE · Market cap 2.8B SEK
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from kr 2.69 to kr 2.29 (−14.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −10.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 84% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 3.21). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (kr 1.52 to kr 3.21) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 9.35 – kr 66.35 · fair‑value band kr 1.52 – kr 3.21 · the kr 14.69 price screens above the kr 2.29 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Verve Group (M8G) currently trades at kr 14.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 2.29, implying the stock looks roughly 84.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Verve Group generated revenue of 361M SEK at a net margin of 12.9%. Revenue grew 17.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.6%. Net debt stands at 438M SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 1.52 (bear case) to kr 3.21 (bull case); at kr 14.69, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -84%, M8G screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (kr 55.68) versus Multiples (kr 1.00). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Verve Group SE operates a software platform for the automated buying and selling of digital advertising space in North America and Europe. It operates in two segments, Demand Side Platforms (DSP) and Supply Side Platforms (SSP).
Full company description
Verve Group SE operates a software platform for the automated buying and selling of digital advertising space in North America and Europe. It operates in two segments, Demand Side Platforms (DSP) and Supply Side Platforms (SSP). The DSP segment enables advertisers to create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital advertising campaigns across various relevant ad formats and channels, and devices. The SSP segment helps third party publishers and its own games studios to monetize their ad inventory/ad spaces while keeping full control over it. It also owns and operates a portfolio of games; and offers a suite of AI-driven products, including ATOM, Moments.AI, and ML-Driven Optimization for SKAN to advertisers and publishers. The company was formerly known as MGI - Media and Games Invest SE and changed its name to Verve Group SE in June 2024. Verve Group SE was founded in 2000 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Verve Group reported revenue of kr 551M in FY2025 versus kr 252M in FY2021, a compound +21.6%/yr. Reported net income was kr 695K in FY2025, compounding −54.4%/yr from FY2021.
M8G screens 84% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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