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Mandatum Oyj (MANDF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Mandatum Oyj $5.60, price $7.11, upside -21.2%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Oct 2, 2026
Broad data
Oct 2, 2026
Mandatum Oyj
MANDF · USOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value $5.60 · Overvalued (−21.2%)
!Quality 53/100
!Weak Growth (revenue YoY −30.8 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 22.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!12.0% dividend yield · Pays more than it earns
!Narrow moat 40/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
35‑month range $2.35 – $7.66 · fair‑value band $4.18 – $7.10 · the $7.11 price screens above the $5.60 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
Company profile
Mandatum Oyj provides various financial services in Finland. The company offers asset and wealth management, savings and investment, compensation, and rewards consultation, as well as pension plans and personal risk insurance solutions. It also operates online trading platform.
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Mandatum Oyj provides various financial services in Finland. The company offers asset and wealth management, savings and investment, compensation, and rewards consultation, as well as pension plans and personal risk insurance solutions. It also operates online trading platform. The company serves corporate, retail, institutional, and wealth management clients. Mandatum Oyj was founded in 1874 and is headquartered in Helsinki, Finland.
Stock analysis
Mandatum Oyj (MANDF) currently trades at $7.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.60, 21.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $6.14 per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the $7.11 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.14, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $4.18 (bear) to $7.10 (bull), the price of $7.11 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Mandatum Oyj reported revenue of €979M in FY2025 versus −€784M in FY2022. Reported net income was €156M in FY2025, compounding −34.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $3.6B · P/E ratio 32.3 · P/S ratio 5.15 · EPS (TTM) $0.2200 · Dividend yield 12.0% · Net margin 15.9% · Return on equity 6.1% · Return on assets 0.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 68% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −21%, MANDF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $4.18
Fair Value $5.60
Bull $7.10
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth DCF
$4.09
$5.16
$6.69
77
Owner Earnings
$4.73
$6.14
$8.23
74
Residual Income
$2.86
$3.19
$3.92
73
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
$4.73
$6.14
$8.23
74
5Y P/E Exit
$4.45
$6.27
$8.18
69
10Y P/E Exit
$4.24
$5.68
$7.22
62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$2.37
$4.65
$5.82
63
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$4.45
$5.93
$7.42
63
P/B Multiple
$4.45
$5.93
$7.42
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$1.60
$2.14
$3.20
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$4.09
$5.16
$6.69
77
Rev-Margin DCF
$3.39
$4.49
$5.72
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$2.86
$3.19
$3.92
73
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
53/100
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Profitability
35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
29
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
58
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
12
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
86
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
75
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−11.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−23.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)12.0%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.4% a year for the price.
MANDF screens overvalued: fair value 21% below the price. Compare with ORIX Corporation →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (6 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
- Mandatum PLC (MANDF) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record AUM and Strategic Expansion ...
- Mandatum PLC (MANDF) Full Year 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Asset Growth Amid ...
- Why Mandatum Oyj (HLSE:MANTA) Is Up 8.3% After Record Q3 Earnings and Luxembourg Expansion
- Mandatum Oyj (HLSE:MANTA): Assessing Valuation After Recent Share Price Gains
Compare Mandatum Oyj with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Financial Conglomerates · 52 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Financial Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Financial Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORIX Corporation IX | $39.19 | $66.33 | +69% |
| Yuanta Financial Holding 2885 | 69.20 TWD | 20.87 TWD | −70% |
| Bajaj Finserv Ltd BAJAJFINSV | ₹1,733 | ₹796.21 | −54% |
| China Galaxy Securities Co 601881 | ¥11.86 | ¥11.49 | −3% |
| Guosen Securities Co 002736 | ¥9.84 | ¥10.90 | +11% |
| CNPC Capital Company 000617 | ¥6.67 | ¥7.03 | +5% |
| Aditya Birla Capital Limited ABCAPITAL | ₹390.00 | ₹226.72 | −42% |
| Freedom Holding FRHC | $169.98 | $23.80 | −86% |
| Voya Financial, Inc VOYA | $97.27 | $46.47 | −52% |
| Guangzhou Yuexiu Capital Holdings 000987 | ¥7.26 | ¥5.63 | −22% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Mandatum Oyj (MANDF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.60 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $7.11, about −21% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MANDF?
Our model-based fair value for Mandatum Oyj is $5.60 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $7.11.
What is the quality score of MANDF?
Mandatum Oyj has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mandatum Oyj (MANDF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.60 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.18, optimistic scenario $7.10. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mandatum Oyj stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.60, about −21% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $7.11 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.18, optimistic scenario $7.10. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mandatum Oyj (MANDF)?
Mandatum Oyj reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €418M (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Mandatum Oyj pay a dividend?
Mandatum Oyj currently shows a dividend yield of about 11.95% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mandatum Oyj (MANDF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mandatum Oyj would have to grow free cash flow by +11.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 2 years revenue grew -12.8 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MANDF use?
Our models discount Mandatum Oyj at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mandatum Oyj that is +11.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mandatum Oyj (MANDF) delivered so far?
Over the past 2 years revenue at Mandatum Oyj grew -12.8 % a year. The price currently implies +11.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mandatum Oyj (MANDF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mandatum Oyj (+11.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mandatum Oyj (MANDF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.90 %: that much free cash flow Mandatum Oyj produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mandatum Oyj (MANDF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mandatum Oyj it is $5.60 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $7.11. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mandatum Oyj stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, MANDF trades above its calculated fair value: price $7.11, fair value $5.60, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MANDF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.11); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.60). For Mandatum Oyj the two are $1.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mandatum Oyj worth?
The market values Mandatum Oyj at about $3.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $7.11; our models calculate a fair value of $5.60 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MANDF?
Our models span a range for Mandatum Oyj: cautious scenario $4.18, base $5.60, optimistic $7.10 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $7.11). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MANDF?
Mandatum Oyj trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.3 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $5.60 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.7, P/S 9.2, EV/EBITDA 20.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mandatum Oyj (MANDF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mandatum Oyj (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 6.1%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MANDF from its 52-week high?
Mandatum Oyj trades at $7.11, about 7% below its 52-week high of $7.66 and 68% above the low of $4.23 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.60 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mandatum Oyj?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value ORIX Corporation, Yuanta Financial Holding, Bajaj Finserv Ltd, China Galaxy Securities Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mandatum Oyj stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $7.11, calculated fair value $5.60 (−21%), Quality Score 53/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MANDF calculated?
We run Mandatum Oyj through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.60, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Mandatum Oyj itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mandatum Oyj (MANDF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $7.11. Our model-based fair value is $5.60, about −21% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mandatum Oyj right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Mandatum Oyj
How large is the market capitalisation of Mandatum Oyj (MANDF)?
The market capitalisation of Mandatum Oyj is $3.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mandatum Oyj (MANDF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mandatum Oyj is 5.15 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mandatum Oyj (MANDF)?
Earnings per share at Mandatum Oyj are $0.2200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 32.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mandatum Oyj (MANDF)?
The dividend yield of Mandatum Oyj is 12.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mandatum Oyj (MANDF)?
The net margin of Mandatum Oyj is 15.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mandatum Oyj (MANDF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mandatum Oyj is 6.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the return on assets of Mandatum Oyj (MANDF)?
The return on assets (ROA) of Mandatum Oyj is 0.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to everything the company owns. Harder to inflate than return on equity because debt does not boost it.
What is the operating margin of Mandatum Oyj (MANDF)?
The operating margin of Mandatum Oyj is −31.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mandatum Oyj (MANDF)?
Revenue at Mandatum Oyj is growing −71.4% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mandatum Oyj (MANDF)?
Earnings per share at Mandatum Oyj are growing −14.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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