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Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Merchants Bancorp $45.43, price $52.23, upside -13.0%, quality 28 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · US · ISIN US58844R1086

MB Merchants Bancorp logo Broad data Sep 23, 2026

Merchants Bancorp

MBIN · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $45.43 · Overvalued (−13%)
!Quality 28/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +27.8 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 39.0% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
·0.78% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
!Moderate moat 64/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Weak on valuation: 16 out of 100
!Weak on balance sheet: 16 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 16 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$55.72 $20.89 Fair Value $45.43 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $20.89 – $55.72 · fair‑value band $41.70 – $59.13 · the $52.23 price screens above the $45.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Merchants Bancorp operates as the diversified bank holding company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Multi-family Mortgage Banking, Mortgage Warehousing, and Banking.

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Merchants Bancorp operates as the diversified bank holding company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Multi-family Mortgage Banking, Mortgage Warehousing, and Banking. The Multi-family Mortgage Banking segment engages in the mortgage banking, which originates, and services government sponsored mortgages, including bridge financing products to refinance, acquire, or reposition multi-family housing projects, and construction lending for housing development and healthcare facilities financing. This segment also offers customized loan products for need-based skilled nursing facilities, such as independent living, assisted living, and memory care; and tax credit equity syndicator service. The Mortgage Warehousing segment funds agency eligible residential loans, as well as commercial loans to non-depository financial institutions. The Banking segment offers a range of financial products and services to consumers and businesses, which includes retail banking, commercial lending, agricultural lending, retail and correspondent residential mortgage banking, and small business administration lending. Merchants Bancorp was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Carmel, Indiana.

Stock analysis

Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) currently trades at $52.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $45.43, implying the stock looks roughly 15.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $61.91 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the $52.23 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $19.56, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $41.70 (bear) to $59.13 (bull), the price of $52.23 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Merchants Bancorp reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $462M in FY2021, a compound +31.1%/yr. Reported net income was $219M in FY2025, compounding −0.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $2.4B · P/E ratio 12.7 · P/S ratio 2.04 · EPS (TTM) $4.10 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 16.0% · Return on equity 10.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 73% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −13%, MBIN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $41.70 Fair Value $45.43 Bull $59.13
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.71 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $42.48 $46.62 $66.81 76
Gordon GGM $11.36 $22.64 $34.28 67
DDM Multi-Stage $11.36 $19.56 $23.89 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $11.36 $22.64 $34.28 67
DDM Multi-Stage $11.36 $19.56 $23.89 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $46.43 $61.91 $77.39 63
P/B Multiple $52.13 $69.51 $86.89 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $24.83 $33.27 $49.65 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $42.48 $46.62 $66.81 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 28/100

Of which business quality 22 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73

Profitability 28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 22
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 0
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 47
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 55
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 74
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 93
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 61
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +32.7% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3% vs 17%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.61% → 19%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

MBIN screens 15% overvalued. Compare with DBS Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1076 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 27 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −13% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 39% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 58% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 16% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.69× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.7× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.05× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 4.10× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 23.3× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)16 · sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)79 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)41 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)16 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)16 · sector 53

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 77.48 SGD 40.39 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968 HK$51.20 HK$62.32 +22%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €82.18 €77.62 −6%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.72 €4.04 −40%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $10.56 $6.79 −36%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €98.43 €105.99 +8%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹728.90 ₹406.44 −44%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,340 ₹616.16 −54%
The PNC Financial Services Group PNC $224.03 $159.52 −29%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.14 SGD 19.80 SGD −38%

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$45.43 −15%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Merchants Bancorp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MBIN

Frequently asked questions

Is Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $45.43 versus a price of $52.23, about −13% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MBIN?
Our model-based fair value for Merchants Bancorp is $45.43 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $52.23.
What is the quality score of MBIN?
Merchants Bancorp has a Quality Score of 28/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $45.43 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $41.70, optimistic scenario $59.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Merchants Bancorp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $45.43, about −13% upside versus a price of $52.23 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $41.70, optimistic scenario $59.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)?
Merchants Bancorp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $585M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Merchants Bancorp pay a dividend?
Merchants Bancorp currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.78% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Merchants Bancorp it is $45.43 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $52.23. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Merchants Bancorp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MBIN trades above its calculated fair value: price $52.23, fair value $45.43, a gap of about −13% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MBIN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($52.23); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($45.43). For Merchants Bancorp the two are $6.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Merchants Bancorp worth?
The market values Merchants Bancorp at about $2.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $52.23; our models calculate a fair value of $45.43 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MBIN?
Our models span a range for Merchants Bancorp: cautious scenario $41.70, base $45.43, optimistic $59.13 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $52.23). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MBIN?
Merchants Bancorp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.7 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $45.43 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 4.1, EV/EBITDA 23.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Merchants Bancorp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 10.2%, debt of 1.69 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 28/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MBIN from its 52-week high?
Merchants Bancorp trades at $52.23, about 6% below its 52-week high of $55.72 and 73% above the low of $30.19 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $45.43 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Merchants Bancorp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Merchants Bancorp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $52.23, calculated fair value $45.43 (−13%), Quality Score 28/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MBIN calculated?
We run Merchants Bancorp through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $45.43, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Merchants Bancorp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $52.23. Our model-based fair value is $45.43, about −13% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Merchants Bancorp right now?
For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) come from?
Earnings per share at Merchants Bancorp grew +24.1 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +32.0 %, EBIT margin −8.9 %, tax rate +3.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Merchants Bancorp

How large is the market capitalisation of Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)?
The market capitalisation of Merchants Bancorp is $2.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Merchants Bancorp is 2.04 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)?
Earnings per share at Merchants Bancorp are $4.10 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)?
The dividend yield of Merchants Bancorp is 0.8% (payout 10.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)?
The net margin of Merchants Bancorp is 16.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Merchants Bancorp is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Merchants Bancorp is 2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)?
The operating margin of Merchants Bancorp is 58.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)?
Revenue at Merchants Bancorp is growing +15.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +31.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)?
Earnings per share at Merchants Bancorp are growing +34.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) generate?
The free cash flow of Merchants Bancorp is −$170M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) carry?
The net debt of Merchants Bancorp is $3.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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