McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $195B
McDonald's Corporation
MCD · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price −4.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 43% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($237.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($101.43 to $237.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $201.21 – $336.88 · fair‑value band $101.43 – $237.68 · the $268.34 price screens above the $152.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
McDonald's Corporation (MCD) currently trades at $268.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $152.18, implying the stock looks roughly 43.3% overvalued today. We read business quality at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, McDonald's Corporation generated revenue of $27.4B at a net margin of 31.6%. Revenue grew 9.4% year over year. Net debt stands at $54.0B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 22.5. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $101.43 (bear case) to $237.68 (bull case); at $268.34, the current price sits above that range. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -43%, MCD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($211.82) versus Growth DCF ($57.09). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally. It offers food and beverages, including hamburgers and cheeseburgers, various chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, frozen desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, cookies, pies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages; and full or limited breakfast, as well as sells various other products during limited-time promotions. The company owns and operates franchised restaurants under various structures, including conventional franchise, developmental license, or affiliate. McDonald's Corporation was founded in 1940 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
McDonald's Corporation reported revenue of $26.9B in FY2025 versus $23.2B in FY2021, a compound +3.7%/yr. Reported net income was $8.6B in FY2025, compounding +3.2%/yr from FY2021.
MCD screens 43% overvalued. Compare with Starbucks Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- McDonald's Corp (MCD) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating US Execution Challenges ...
- McDonald's Earnings Win Comes With Warning Sign
- Noteworthy Tuesday Option Activity: MCD, UNH, WMB
Peer Group
Restaurants · 231 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $105.49 | $35.83 | -66% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $34.63 | $18.43 | -47% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $163.54 | $59.66 | -64% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.19 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $195.74 | $173.68 | -11% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $43.90 | $55.10 | +26% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $197.03 | $104.89 | -47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $68.36 | $12.80 | -81% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $322.18 | $231.96 | -28% |
| CAVA Group CAVA | $68.85 | $10.69 | -84% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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