Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · IN · Market cap ₹739B
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from ₹1,194 to ₹1,191 (−0.2%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price −4.4% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 55% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 80/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The model range is unusually wide (₹643.33 to ₹4,462). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹211.03 – ₹3,441 · fair‑value band ₹643.33 – ₹4,462 · the ₹2,638 price screens above the ₹1,191 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) currently trades at ₹2,638, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹1,191, implying the stock looks roughly 54.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited generated revenue of ₹24.3B at a net margin of 54.8%. Revenue grew 200.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 37.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of ₹25.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ₹643.33 (bear case) to ₹4,462 (bull case); at ₹2,638, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 81% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -53% fair-value upside, at -55%, MCX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (₹4,566) versus Asset-Based (₹74.97). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 80 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited, a commodity derivatives exchange, provides a platform to facilitate online trading of commodity derivatives in India. It offers iCOMDEX, a real-time commodity futures price indices; and trades in bullion, base metals, energy, and agricultural commodities.
Full company description
Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited, a commodity derivatives exchange, provides a platform to facilitate online trading of commodity derivatives in India. It offers iCOMDEX, a real-time commodity futures price indices; and trades in bullion, base metals, energy, and agricultural commodities. The company also provides clearing and settlement services; and data feed subscription and membership services. It has strategic alliances, consultancy, and collaboration agreements with various exchanges, such as CME Group, Dalian Commodity Exchange, London Metal Exchange, European Energy Exchange AG, Taiwan Futures Exchange, and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, Jakarta Futures Exchange, and Chittagong Stock Exchange Limited. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is based in Mumbai, India.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited reported revenue of ₹24.3B in FY2026 versus ₹3.3B in FY2022, a compound +64.8%/yr. Reported net income was ₹13.3B in FY2026, compounding +74.5%/yr from FY2022.
MCX screens 55% overvalued. Compare with S&P Global Inc →
Peer Group
Financial Data & Stock Exchanges · 54 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Financial Data & Stock Exchanges median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Financial Data & Stock Exchanges stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Inc SPGI | $450.84 | $196.36 | -56% |
| CME Group CME | $245.05 | $145.51 | -41% |
| Moody's Corporation MCO | $504.46 | $194.82 | -61% |
| Intercontinental Exchange, Inc ICE | $139.65 | $75.95 | -46% |
| Deutsche Börse AG DB1 | €260.90 | €142.42 | -45% |
| Nasdaq, Inc NDAQ | $88.08 | $41.12 | -53% |
| MSCI Inc MSCI | $604.71 | $214.91 | -64% |
| Coinbase Global, Inc COIN | $160.49 | $57.05 | -64% |
| Cboe Global Markets, Inc CBOE | $273.41 | $136.64 | -50% |
| Hithink RoyalFlush Information Network Co 300033 | ¥215.56 | ¥55.36 | -74% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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