MEDIA DO Co. Ltd (MDDCF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of MEDIA DO Co. Ltd $18.73, price $37.04, upside -49.4%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch MEDIA DO Co. Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $35.84 – $40.15 · fair‑value band $13.11 – $24.34 · the $37.04 price screens above the $18.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Follow MEDIA DO Co. in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether MEDIA DO Co. is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
MEDIA DO Co., Ltd. engages in the eBook distribution business in Japan. The company operates through two segments: eBook Distribution and Strategic Investment.
Show more
MEDIA DO Co., Ltd. engages in the eBook distribution business in Japan. The company operates through two segments: eBook Distribution and Strategic Investment. It plans, edits, publishes, and sells of book and magazines; distributes books; conducts of publishing workflow management and bibliographic information management services; and provides e-commerce solutions. The company operates text summary site; outsourcer; eBook agency; anime/manga community site; basketball team; and the NetGalley website, as well as novel posting website, and other pulishing-related businesses through EVERYSTAR posting website. It also involved in the coloring, eComics, and software development, and print on demand publishing services. It sells its eBook content to eBook retailers. The company was formerly known as Media Do Holdings Co., Ltd. and changed its name to MEDIA DO Co., Ltd. MEDIA DO Co., Ltd. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
MEDIA DO Co. Ltd (MDDCF) currently trades at $37.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.73, implying the stock looks roughly 97.8% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $26.47 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $37.04 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.91, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $13.11 (bear) to $24.34 (bull), the price of $37.04 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
MEDIA DO Co. Ltd reported revenue of ¥109B in FY2026 versus ¥105B in FY2022, a compound +1.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥1.8B in FY2026, compounding +3.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $562M · P/E ratio 48.7 · P/S ratio 0.82 · EPS (TTM) $0.7600 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 1.7% · Return on equity 10.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at −49%, MDDCF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $13.11Fair Value $18.73Bull $24.34
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.65/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +25.5% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.7%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ −1.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4% vs 14%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2026 sits 52% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Publishing · 108 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside−49% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Publishing median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)48.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B4.67× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.82× · Pricier than median
P/FCF0.2× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA20.8× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 52
FUTURE (revenue growth)30· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)40· sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)97· sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)10· sector 63
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MEDIA DO Co. Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MDDCF
Frequently asked questions
Is MEDIA DO Co. Ltd (MDDCF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.73 versus a price of $37.04, about −49% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MDDCF?
Our model-based fair value for MEDIA DO Co. Ltd is $18.73 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $37.04.
What is the quality score of MDDCF?
MEDIA DO Co. Ltd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MEDIA DO Co. Ltd (MDDCF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.73 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.11, optimistic scenario $24.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MEDIA DO Co. Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.73, about −49% upside versus a price of $37.04 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.11, optimistic scenario $24.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MEDIA DO Co. Ltd (MDDCF)?
MEDIA DO Co. Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥109B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does MEDIA DO Co. Ltd pay a dividend?
MEDIA DO Co. Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.51% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into MEDIA DO Co. Ltd (MDDCF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MEDIA DO Co. Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +21.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MDDCF use?
Our models discount MEDIA DO Co. Ltd at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.85, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MEDIA DO Co. Ltd that is +21.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has MEDIA DO Co. Ltd (MDDCF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at MEDIA DO Co. Ltd grew +5.4 % a year. The price currently implies +21.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of MEDIA DO Co. Ltd (MDDCF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MEDIA DO Co. Ltd (+21.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of MEDIA DO Co. Ltd (MDDCF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.72 %: that much free cash flow MEDIA DO Co. Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of MEDIA DO Co. Ltd (MDDCF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MEDIA DO Co. Ltd it is $18.73 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $37.04. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MEDIA DO Co. Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MDDCF trades above its calculated fair value: price $37.04, fair value $18.73, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MDDCF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($37.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.73). For MEDIA DO Co. Ltd the two are $18.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MEDIA DO Co. Ltd worth?
The market values MEDIA DO Co. Ltd at about $562M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $37.04; our models calculate a fair value of $18.73 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MDDCF?
Our models span a range for MEDIA DO Co. Ltd: cautious scenario $13.11, base $18.73, optimistic $24.34 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $37.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MDDCF?
MEDIA DO Co. Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 48.7 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $18.73 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.7, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 20.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of MEDIA DO Co. Ltd (MDDCF)?
Balance-sheet figures for MEDIA DO Co. Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 10.0%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MDDCF from its 52-week high?
MEDIA DO Co. Ltd trades at $37.04, at its 52-week high of $37.04 and 1% above the low of $36.51 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.73 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MEDIA DO Co. Ltd?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value The New York Times Company, Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media Corporation, China Science Publishing & Media Ltd, People.cn CO., LTD, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MEDIA DO Co. Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $37.04, calculated fair value $18.73 (−49%), Quality Score 62/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MDDCF calculated?
We run MEDIA DO Co. Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $18.73, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. MEDIA DO Co. Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MEDIA DO Co. Ltd (MDDCF)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $37.04. Our model-based fair value is $18.73, about −49% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MEDIA DO Co. Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($24.34). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($13.11 to $24.34) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of MEDIA DO Co. Ltd (MDDCF) come from?
Earnings per share at MEDIA DO Co. Ltd grew +13.4 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +21.2 %, EBIT margin −7.0 %, tax rate +1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of MEDIA DO Co. Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of MEDIA DO Co. Ltd (MDDCF)?
The market capitalisation of MEDIA DO Co. Ltd is $562M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MEDIA DO Co. Ltd (MDDCF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MEDIA DO Co. Ltd is 0.82 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MEDIA DO Co. Ltd (MDDCF)?
Earnings per share at MEDIA DO Co. Ltd are $0.7600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 48.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of MEDIA DO Co. Ltd (MDDCF)?
The dividend yield of MEDIA DO Co. Ltd is 0.5% (payout 24.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of MEDIA DO Co. Ltd (MDDCF)?
The net margin of MEDIA DO Co. Ltd is 1.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MEDIA DO Co. Ltd (MDDCF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MEDIA DO Co. Ltd is 10.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MEDIA DO Co. Ltd (MDDCF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MEDIA DO Co. Ltd is 4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MEDIA DO Co. Ltd (MDDCF)?
The operating margin of MEDIA DO Co. Ltd is 2.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MEDIA DO Co. Ltd (MDDCF)?
Revenue at MEDIA DO Co. Ltd is growing +5.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MEDIA DO Co. Ltd (MDDCF)?
Earnings per share at MEDIA DO Co. Ltd are growing −58.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does MEDIA DO Co. Ltd (MDDCF) hold?
MEDIA DO Co. Ltd holds more cash than debt, ¥11.3B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch MEDIA DO Co. Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts MEDIA DO Co. Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Broad data
Sep 23, 2026