McDonald's Holdings (MDNDF) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $6.8B
McDonald's Holdings
MDNDF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price −6.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 47% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($35.27). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($16.59 to $35.27) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.79 – $51.00 · fair‑value band $16.59 – $35.27 · the $47.86 price screens above the $25.30 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
McDonald's Holdings (MDNDF) currently trades at $47.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $25.30, implying the stock looks roughly 47.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, McDonald's Holdings generated revenue of $419B at a net margin of 8.9%. Revenue grew 2.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $71.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $16.59 (bear case) to $35.27 (bull case); at $47.86, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -47%, MDNDF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($28.34) versus Asset-Based ($8.77). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan), Ltd. owns and operates hamburger restaurant chain under the McDonald's brand in Japan. The company was formerly known as Japan McDonald's K.K. and changed its name to McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan), Ltd. in July 2002. McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan), Ltd. was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
McDonald's Holdings reported revenue of $417B in FY2025 versus $318B in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was $33.9B in FY2025, compounding +9.1%/yr from FY2021.
MDNDF screens 47% overvalued. Compare with Starbucks Corporation →
Peer Group
Restaurants · 226 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $105.49 | $35.83 | -66% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $34.63 | $18.43 | -47% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $163.54 | $59.66 | -64% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.19 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $195.74 | $173.68 | -11% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $43.90 | $55.10 | +26% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $197.03 | $104.89 | -47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $68.36 | $12.80 | -81% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $322.18 | $231.96 | -28% |
Compare McDonald's Holdings with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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