McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd (MDNDF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd $25.30, price $47.86, upside -47.1%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.79 – $51.00 · fair‑value band $16.64 – $35.22 · the $47.86 price screens above the $25.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan), Ltd. owns and operates hamburger restaurant chain under the McDonald's brand in Japan. The company was formerly known as Japan McDonald's K.K. and changed its name to McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan), Ltd. in July 2002. McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan), Ltd. was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd (MDNDF) currently trades at $47.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $25.30, implying the stock looks roughly 89.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $28.34 per share, and 1 of the 23 models we run sit above the $47.86 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.77, and 22 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $16.64 (bear) to $35.22 (bull), the price of $47.86 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd reported revenue of ¥417B in FY2025 versus ¥318B in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥33.9B in FY2025, compounding +9.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.4B · P/E ratio 29.2 · P/S ratio 2.38 · EPS (TTM) $1.64 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 8.1% · Return on equity 13.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −47%, MDNDF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $16.64Fair Value $25.30Bull $35.22
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.66/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.2% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+11.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11% vs 20%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 13%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+30.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +28.0% a year for the price and −0.7% for the forecasts.
Compare McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 224 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−47% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14% · Above median
Return on assets11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)29.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.60× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.41× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF0.4× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA12.3× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 40
FUTURE (revenue growth)14· sector 18
PAST (return on equity)55· sector 21
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)16· sector 70
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MDNDF
Frequently asked questions
Is McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd (MDNDF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $25.30 versus a price of $47.86, about −47% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MDNDF?
Our model-based fair value for McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd is $25.30 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $47.86.
What is the quality score of MDNDF?
McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd (MDNDF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $25.30 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $16.64, optimistic scenario $35.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $25.30, about −47% upside versus a price of $47.86 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $16.64, optimistic scenario $35.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd (MDNDF)?
McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥419B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd pay a dividend?
McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.82% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd (MDNDF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +30.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MDNDF use?
Our models discount McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd that is +30.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd (MDNDF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd grew +7.7 % a year. The price currently implies +30.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd (MDNDF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd (+30.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd (MDNDF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.56 %: that much free cash flow McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd (MDNDF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd it is $25.30 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $47.86. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MDNDF trades above its calculated fair value: price $47.86, fair value $25.30, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MDNDF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($47.86); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($25.30). For McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd the two are $22.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd worth?
The market values McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd at about $6.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $47.86; our models calculate a fair value of $25.30 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MDNDF?
Our models span a range for McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd: cautious scenario $16.64, base $25.30, optimistic $35.22 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $47.86). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MDNDF?
McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $25.30 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.6, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 12.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd (MDNDF)?
Balance-sheet figures for McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 13.9%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MDNDF from its 52-week high?
McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd trades at $47.86, about 6% below its 52-week high of $51.00 and 14% above the low of $42.00 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $25.30 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $47.86, calculated fair value $25.30 (−47%), Quality Score 61/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MDNDF calculated?
We run McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $25.30, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd (MDNDF)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $47.86. Our model-based fair value is $25.30, about −47% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($35.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($16.64 to $35.22) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd (MDNDF)?
The market capitalisation of McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd is $6.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd (MDNDF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd is 2.38 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd (MDNDF)?
Earnings per share at McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd are $1.64 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd (MDNDF)?
The dividend yield of McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd is 0.8% (payout 23.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd (MDNDF)?
The net margin of McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd is 8.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd (MDNDF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd is 13.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd (MDNDF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd is 13.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd (MDNDF)?
The operating margin of McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd is 16.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd (MDNDF)?
Revenue at McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd is growing +2.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd (MDNDF)?
Earnings per share at McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd are growing +44.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd (MDNDF) hold?
McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) Ltd holds more cash than debt, ¥71.3B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026