Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A (MDNE3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A BRL 29.30, price BRL 24.95, upside +17.4%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$3.57 – R$34.28 · fair‑value band R$21.05 – R$86.15 · the R$24.95 price screens below the R$29.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A. provides real estate development services in Brazil. The company develops flats, hotels, resorts, and residential buildings, as well as offers technical construction administration, and technical advisory services to the condominiums.
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Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A. provides real estate development services in Brazil. The company develops flats, hotels, resorts, and residential buildings, as well as offers technical construction administration, and technical advisory services to the condominiums. It also engages in the purchase and sale of properties; real estate construction; management; administration; and engineering services, as well as real estate consulting services, including site purchase; product formatting; and project approval. The company was founded in 1983 and is based in Recife, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A (MDNE3) currently trades at R$24.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$29.30, implying the stock looks roughly 14.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R$68.92 per share, and 6 of the 9 models we run sit above the R$24.95 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$9.81, and 3 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$21.05 (bear) to R$86.15 (bull), the price of R$24.95 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A reported revenue of R$2.4B in FY2025 versus R$620M in FY2021, a compound +39.7%/yr. Reported net income was R$420M in FY2025, compounding +50.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$2.8B (≈ $537M) · P/E ratio 4.4 · P/S ratio 0.78 · EPS (TTM) R$5.67 · Net margin 17.8% · Return on equity 27.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4% · Operating margin 25.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at 17%, MDNE3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$21.05Fair Value R$29.30Bull R$86.15
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$0.6635 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+50.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+43.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.8% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+52.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+52.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.38% vs 9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−14% → 20%
2025 sits 169% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Compare Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 546 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside+31% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)27% · Top 25%
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)20% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)25% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth43% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)19.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.47× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
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Is Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A (MDNE3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$29.30 versus a price of R$24.95, about +17% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MDNE3?
Our model-based fair value for Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A is R$29.30 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$24.95.
What is the quality score of MDNE3?
Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A (MDNE3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$29.30 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$21.05, optimistic scenario R$86.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$29.30, about +17% upside versus a price of R$24.95 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$21.05, optimistic scenario R$86.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A (MDNE3)?
Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$2.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A (MDNE3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A it is R$29.30 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R$24.95. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MDNE3 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$24.95, fair value R$29.30, a gap of about +17% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MDNE3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$24.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$29.30). For Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A the two are R$4.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A worth?
The market values Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A at about R$2.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R$24.95; our models calculate a fair value of R$29.30 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MDNE3?
Our models span a range for Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A: cautious scenario R$21.05, base R$29.30, optimistic R$86.15 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R$24.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MDNE3?
Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$29.30 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 1.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A (MDNE3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 27.2%, debt of 0.47 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MDNE3 from its 52-week high?
Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A trades at R$24.95, about 27% below its 52-week high of R$34.28 and 16% above the low of R$21.44 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$29.30 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Vingroup Joint Stock Company, CBRE Group, Vonovia SE, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R$24.95, calculated fair value R$29.30 (+17%), Quality Score 54/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MDNE3 calculated?
We run Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$29.30, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A currently trades 17 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A (MDNE3)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was R$24.95. Our model-based fair value is R$29.30, about +17% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A right now?
The model range is unusually wide (R$21.05 to R$86.15). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A (MDNE3) come from?
Earnings per share at Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A grew +5.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −4.6 %, EBIT margin +1.9 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +6.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A (MDNE3)?
The market capitalisation of Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A is R$2.8B (≈ $537M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A (MDNE3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A is 0.78 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A (MDNE3)?
Earnings per share at Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A are R$5.67 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A (MDNE3)?
The net margin of Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A is 17.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A (MDNE3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A is 27.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A (MDNE3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A (MDNE3)?
The operating margin of Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A is 25.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A (MDNE3)?
Revenue at Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A is growing +43.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +43.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A (MDNE3)?
Earnings per share at Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A are growing +87.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A (MDNE3) generate?
The free cash flow of Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A is −R$142M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A (MDNE3) carry?
The net debt of Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A is R$567M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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