Mecanica Ceahlau S.A (MECF) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · RO · Market cap 23.6M RON
Fair value as of: Jul 31, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 10 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 31, 2026, revised from 0.0803 RON to 0.0212 RON (−73.6%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +27.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 78% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.0212 RON). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (0.0113 RON to 0.0212 RON) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.0770 RON – 0.1430 RON · fair‑value band 0.0113 RON – 0.0212 RON · the 0.0985 RON price screens above the 0.0212 RON fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 31, 2026.
Analysis
Mecanica Ceahlau S.A (MECF) currently trades at 0.0985 RON, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.0212 RON, implying the stock looks roughly 78.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Mecanica Ceahlau S.A generated revenue of 15.0M RON at a net margin of -26.5%. Revenue declined 61.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -8.6%. Fundamentals as of Jul 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 0.0113 RON (bear case) to 0.0212 RON (bull case); at 0.0985 RON, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at -78%, MECF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (0.1300 RON) versus DCF Models (0.0700 RON). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Mecanica Ceahlau S.A. produces and sells agricultural and forestry machinery in Romania and internationally. The company offers soil processing equipment, including ploughs, subsoilers, field cultivators, disc harrows, and seedbed cultivators; seeding and planting machines, such as seed drills and planters; and crop maintenance equipment comprising row crop …
Full company description
Mecanica Ceahlau S.A. produces and sells agricultural and forestry machinery in Romania and internationally. The company offers soil processing equipment, including ploughs, subsoilers, field cultivators, disc harrows, and seedbed cultivators; seeding and planting machines, such as seed drills and planters; and crop maintenance equipment comprising row crop cultivators and fertilizer spreaders. It also provides mowers, rakes, trailers, tractors, front loaders, and spare parts; and scarifiers, combinators, sowers for straw with skid or double disc coulters slingers, towed and borne sprayer equipment, atomizers, and balers. Mecanica Ceahlau S.A. was founded in 1921 and is headquartered in Piatra Neamt, Romania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Mecanica Ceahlau S.A reported revenue of 19.5M RON in FY2025 versus 36.2M RON in FY2021, a compound −14.4%/yr. Reported net income was −2.9M RON in FY2025.
MECF screens 78% overvalued. Compare with Caterpillar Inc →
Peer Group
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 148 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar Inc CAT | $952.41 | $307.83 | -68% |
| Deere & Company DE | $597.24 | $187.86 | -69% |
| AB Volvo (publ), VOLVA | kr 336.60 | kr 288.08 | -14% |
| PACCAR Inc PCAR | $126.20 | $94.80 | -25% |
| Epiroc AB EPIA | kr 251.90 | kr 144.14 | -43% |
| Exor N.V EXO | €69.40 | €219.41 | +216% |
| Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 | ¥18.65 | ¥20.84 | +12% |
| XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 | ¥8.39 | ¥11.79 | +41% |
| Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 | HK$41.00 | HK$53.51 | +31% |
| Yutong Bus Co 600066 | ¥32.29 | ¥42.00 | +30% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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