Mecanica Sa Ce (MECF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Mecanica Sa Ce RON 0.08, price RON 0.11, upside -25.9%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.0770 RON – 0.1430 RON · fair‑value band 0.0700 RON – 0.1100 RON · the 0.1080 RON price screens above the 0.0800 RON fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Mecanica Ceahlau S.A. produces and sells agricultural and forestry machinery in Romania and internationally.
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Mecanica Ceahlau S.A. produces and sells agricultural and forestry machinery in Romania and internationally. The company offers soil processing equipment, including ploughs, subsoilers, field cultivators, disc harrows, and seedbed cultivators; seeding and planting machines, such as seed drills and planters; and crop maintenance equipment comprising row crop cultivators and fertilizer spreaders. It also provides mowers, rakes, trailers, tractors, front loaders, and spare parts; and scarifiers, combinators, sowers for straw with skid or double disc coulters slingers, towed and borne sprayer equipment, atomizers, and balers. Mecanica Ceahlau S.A. was founded in 1921 and is headquartered in Piatra Neamt, Romania.
Stock analysis
Mecanica Sa Ce (MECF) currently trades at 0.1080 RON, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.0800 RON, implying the stock looks roughly 35.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 0.1300 RON per share, and 1 of the 7 models we run sit above the 0.1080 RON price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 0.0800 RON, and 6 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 0.0700 RON (bear) to 0.1100 RON (bull), the price of 0.1080 RON sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Mecanica Sa Ce reported revenue of 19.5M RON in FY2025 versus 36.2M RON in FY2021, a compound −14.4%/yr. Reported net income was −2.9M RON in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 25.9M RON (≈ $5.6M) · P/S ratio 1.57 · EPS (TTM) −0.0200 RON · Net margin −15.1% · Return on equity −8.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.1% · Operating margin −67.5% · Revenue (TTM) 15.0M RON.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at −26%, MECF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 0.0700 RONFair Value 0.0800 RONBull 0.1100 RON
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.12/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−13.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−25.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−15.3% (2020) → −33.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Romania: IMF forecast 4.3% a year to 2030, 5.2% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 154 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside−26% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−27% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−68% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−62% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.12× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.37× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF4.7× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 40
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 30
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 34
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 42
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mecanica Sa Ce Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MECF
Frequently asked questions
Is Mecanica Sa Ce (MECF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.0800 RON versus a price of 0.1080 RON, about −26% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MECF?
Our model-based fair value for Mecanica Sa Ce is 0.0800 RON (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 0.1080 RON.
What is the quality score of MECF?
Mecanica Sa Ce has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mecanica Sa Ce (MECF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 0.0800 RON (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario 0.0700 RON, optimistic scenario 0.1100 RON. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mecanica Sa Ce stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 0.0800 RON, about −26% upside versus a price of 0.1080 RON (overvalued). Cautious scenario 0.0700 RON, optimistic scenario 0.1100 RON. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mecanica Sa Ce (MECF)?
Mecanica Sa Ce reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 15.0M RON (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mecanica Sa Ce (MECF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mecanica Sa Ce would have to grow free cash flow by +10.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.7 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MECF use?
Our models discount Mecanica Sa Ce at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.01, country premium for Romania. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mecanica Sa Ce that is +10.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mecanica Sa Ce (MECF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mecanica Sa Ce grew +0.7 % a year. The price currently implies +10.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mecanica Sa Ce (MECF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mecanica Sa Ce (+10.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mecanica Sa Ce (MECF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.62 %: that much free cash flow Mecanica Sa Ce produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mecanica Sa Ce (MECF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mecanica Sa Ce it is 0.0800 RON per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 0.1080 RON. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mecanica Sa Ce stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MECF trades above its calculated fair value: price 0.1080 RON, fair value 0.0800 RON, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MECF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (0.1080 RON); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (0.0800 RON). For Mecanica Sa Ce the two are 0.0280 RON per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mecanica Sa Ce worth?
The market values Mecanica Sa Ce at about 25.9M RON (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 0.1080 RON; our models calculate a fair value of 0.0800 RON per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MECF?
Our models span a range for Mecanica Sa Ce: cautious scenario 0.0700 RON, base 0.0800 RON, optimistic 0.1100 RON per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 0.1080 RON). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mecanica Sa Ce (MECF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mecanica Sa Ce (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −8.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MECF from its 52-week high?
Mecanica Sa Ce trades at 0.1080 RON, about 18% below its 52-week high of 0.1310 RON and 40% above the low of 0.0770 RON (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 0.0800 RON is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mecanica Sa Ce?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mecanica Sa Ce stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 0.1080 RON, calculated fair value 0.0800 RON (−26%), Quality Score 53/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MECF calculated?
We run Mecanica Sa Ce through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 0.0800 RON, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Mecanica Sa Ce itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mecanica Sa Ce (MECF)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 0.1080 RON. Our model-based fair value is 0.0800 RON, about −26% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mecanica Sa Ce right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Mecanica Sa Ce
How large is the market capitalisation of Mecanica Sa Ce (MECF)?
The market capitalisation of Mecanica Sa Ce is 25.9M RON (≈ $5.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mecanica Sa Ce (MECF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mecanica Sa Ce is 1.57 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mecanica Sa Ce (MECF)?
Earnings per share at Mecanica Sa Ce are −0.0200 RON. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Mecanica Sa Ce (MECF)?
The net margin of Mecanica Sa Ce is −15.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mecanica Sa Ce (MECF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mecanica Sa Ce is −8.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mecanica Sa Ce (MECF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mecanica Sa Ce is −5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mecanica Sa Ce (MECF)?
The operating margin of Mecanica Sa Ce is −67.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mecanica Sa Ce (MECF)?
Revenue at Mecanica Sa Ce is growing −61.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −25.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
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