Medifast, Inc (MED) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $123M
Medifast, Inc
MED · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from $7.98 to $6.56 (−17.8%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +18.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 48% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- The models converge in a tight band ($6.55 to $6.56), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.45 – $294.26 · fair‑value band $6.55 – $6.56 · the $12.62 price screens above the $6.56 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Medifast, Inc (MED) currently trades at $12.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.56, implying the stock looks roughly 48.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Medifast, Inc generated revenue of $346M at a net margin of -5.8%. Revenue declined 34.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -9.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $72.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $6.55 (bear case) to $6.56 (bull case); at $12.62, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -16% fair-value upside, at -48%, MED screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($11.99) versus Dividend Discount ($0.1900). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Medifast, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a health and wellness company that provides habit-based and coach-guided lifestyle solutions to address weight loss in the United States.
Full company description
Medifast, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a health and wellness company that provides habit-based and coach-guided lifestyle solutions to address weight loss in the United States. The company offers weight loss, weight management, and healthy living products comprising bars, cereals, snack straws, hot chocolate, hearty choices, oatmeal, pancakes, puddings, soft serves, shakes, smoothies, soft bakes, soups, essential amino acid blends, whey protein, hot beverages, brownies, and mini meals under the Essential Fuelings, OPTAVIA ASCEND, and OPTAVIA ACTIVE categories, as well as daily nutrient packs, including multivitamins, minerals, and omega-3 fatty acid supplements. It also provides lifestyle plans consisting of 5 & 1 Plan and 5 & 1 ACTIVE Plan, which provides a targeted reset of the body's metabolism by activating strong and targeted fat burn; Optimal Weight 4 & 2 & 1 Plan and Optimal Weight 4 & 2 ACTIVE Plan, which is designed for clients who want to continue eating all food groups or want a flexible meal plan to achieve a healthy weight; OPTAVIA Optimization Plan, a personalized approach to help clients' long-term weight management; and OPTAVIA GLP-1 Nutrition Support Plan, a nutritional companion to GLP-1 medication that allows clients to focus on weight loss without the stress of figuring out what to eat. In addition, the company offers metabolic synchronization, a science that reverses metabolic dysfunction through a targeted reset of the body's metabolism. It markets its products through point-of-sale transactions executed over an e-commerce platform. The company serves health and wellness consumers. The company was formerly known as Healthrite, Inc. and changed its name to Medifast, Inc. in May 2001. Medifast, Inc. was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Medifast, Inc reported revenue of $386M in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound −29.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$18.7M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +13.9 pp · buybacks/dilution +1.5 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MED screens 48% overvalued. Compare with Rollins, Inc →
Peer Group
Personal Services · 42 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Personal Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Personal Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rollins, Inc ROL | $44.47 | $21.11 | -53% |
| Service Corporation SCI | $78.72 | $39.27 | -50% |
| Frontdoor, Inc FTDR | $75.69 | $75.55 | -0% |
| H&R Block, Inc HRB | $41.14 | $78.83 | +92% |
| Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc BFAM | $73.99 | $62.41 | -16% |
| Fu Shou Yuan International Group 1448 | HK$2.64 | HK$4.20 | +59% |
| Lungyen Life Service Corporation 5530 | 48.60 TWD | 31.33 TWD | -36% |
| Carriage Services, Inc CSV | $38.29 | $26.63 | -30% |
| Musti Group MUSTI | €14.35 | €14.08 | -2% |
| Uniao Pet Participacoes S.A AUAU3 | R$3.08 | R$1.37 | -56% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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