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MEDIFAST INC (MED) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of MEDIFAST INC $12.90, price $11.95, upside +8.0%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · US · ISIN US58470H1014

MI MEDIFAST INC logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

MEDIFAST INC

MED · US

NeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.

·Fair value $12.90 · Fairly valued (+8%)
!Quality 51/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −16.2 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -5.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (4/13)
!Narrow moat 8/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 3 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$256.70 $9.45 Fair Value $12.90 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $9.45 – $256.70 · fair‑value band $11.36 – $14.81 · the $11.95 price screens below the $12.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Medifast, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a health and wellness company that provides habit-based and coach-guided lifestyle solutions to address weight loss in the United States.

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Medifast, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a health and wellness company that provides habit-based and coach-guided lifestyle solutions to address weight loss in the United States. The company offers weight loss, weight management, and healthy living products comprising bars, cereals, snack straws, hot chocolate, hearty choices, oatmeal, pancakes, puddings, soft serves, shakes, smoothies, soft bakes, soups, essential amino acid blends, whey protein, hot beverages, brownies, and mini meals under the Essential Fuelings, OPTAVIA ASCEND, and OPTAVIA ACTIVE categories, as well as daily nutrient packs, including multivitamins, minerals, and omega-3 fatty acid supplements. It also provides lifestyle plans consisting of 5 & 1 Plan and 5 & 1 ACTIVE Plan, which provides a targeted reset of the body's metabolism by activating strong and targeted fat burn; Optimal Weight 4 & 2 & 1 Plan and Optimal Weight 4 & 2 ACTIVE Plan, which is designed for clients who want to continue eating all food groups or want a flexible meal plan to achieve a healthy weight; OPTAVIA Optimization Plan, a personalized approach to help clients' long-term weight management; and OPTAVIA GLP-1 Nutrition Support Plan, a nutritional companion to GLP-1 medication that allows clients to focus on weight loss without the stress of figuring out what to eat. In addition, the company offers metabolic synchronization, a science that reverses metabolic dysfunction through a targeted reset of the body's metabolism. It markets its products through point-of-sale transactions executed over an e-commerce platform. The company serves health and wellness consumers. The company was formerly known as Healthrite, Inc. and changed its name to Medifast, Inc. in May 2001. Medifast, Inc. was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland.

Stock analysis

MEDIFAST INC (MED) currently trades at $11.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.90, implying the stock looks roughly 7.4% fairly valued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $16.16 per share, and 5 of the 11 models we run sit above the $11.95 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $8.07, and 6 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $11.36 (bear) to $14.81 (bull), the price of $11.95 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

MEDIFAST INC reported revenue of $386M in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound −29.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$18.7M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $131M · P/S ratio 0.35 · EPS (TTM) $−1.82 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin −4.8% · Return on equity −9.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 29.8% · Operating margin −7.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 8%, MED screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $11.36 Fair Value $12.90 Bull $14.81
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $13.41 $15.57 $21.87 79
Growth DCF $13.07 $16.16 $21.00 78
5Y EBITDA Exit $9.96 $10.30 $10.94 74
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $13.41 $15.57 $21.87 79
5Y Revenue Exit $10.65 $11.70 $13.83 72
5Y EBITDA Exit $9.96 $10.30 $10.94 74
10Y Revenue Exit $11.63 $13.97 $14.89 66
10Y EBITDA Exit $11.24 $12.70 $14.51 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.1200 $0.2000 $0.2700 66
DDM Multi-Stage $0.1200 $0.1900 $0.2200 65
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $8.06 $8.07 $8.07 67
EV/Revenue $9.05 $9.49 $9.93 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $8.94 $11.99 $17.89 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $13.07 $16.16 $21.00 78

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48

Profitability 40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 12
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 12
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 86
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 55
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 51
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 35
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 85
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 10/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−36.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−37.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.5% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
14.4% (2020) → −3.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Personal Services · 41 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside +8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −34% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.2% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Personal Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.66× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.38× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 105.1× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.97× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)44 · sector 50
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 22
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 42
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)3 · sector 84

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Personal Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Rollins, Inc ROL $32.49 $21.11 −35%
Service Corporation SCI $77.85 $52.18 −33%
Frontdoor, Inc FTDR $77.19 $75.55 −2%
H&R Block, Inc HRB $42.86 $78.83 +84%
Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc BFAM $64.96 $64.54 −1%
CEWE Stiftung & Co CWC €106.60 €155.49 +46%
Lungyen Life Service Corporation 5530 49.00 TWD 15.88 TWD −68%
Carriage Services, Inc CSV $31.86 $25.43 −20%
Musti Group MUSTI €14.60 €22.60 +55%
Propel Funeral Partners Limited PFP A$2.98 A$3.65 +22%

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MEDIFAST INC · Fair Value
$12.90 +7%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MEDIFAST INC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MED

Frequently asked questions

Is MEDIFAST INC (MED) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.90 versus a price of $11.95, about +8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of MED?
Our model-based fair value for MEDIFAST INC is $12.90 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.95.
What is the quality score of MED?
MEDIFAST INC has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MEDIFAST INC (MED)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.90 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.36, optimistic scenario $14.81. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MEDIFAST INC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.90, about +8% upside versus a price of $11.95 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $11.36, optimistic scenario $14.81. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MEDIFAST INC (MED)?
MEDIFAST INC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $346M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does MEDIFAST INC pay a dividend?
MEDIFAST INC currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.16% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into MEDIFAST INC (MED)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MEDIFAST INC would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -16.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MED use?
Our models discount MEDIFAST INC at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.66, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MEDIFAST INC that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has MEDIFAST INC (MED) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at MEDIFAST INC grew -16.2 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of MEDIFAST INC (MED) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MEDIFAST INC (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of MEDIFAST INC (MED)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.95 %: that much free cash flow MEDIFAST INC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of MEDIFAST INC (MED)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MEDIFAST INC it is $12.90 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $11.95. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MEDIFAST INC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MED trades below its calculated fair value: price $11.95, fair value $12.90, a gap of about +8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MED?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.90). For MEDIFAST INC the two are $0.9500 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MEDIFAST INC worth?
The market values MEDIFAST INC at about $131M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $11.95; our models calculate a fair value of $12.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MED?
Our models span a range for MEDIFAST INC: cautious scenario $11.36, base $12.90, optimistic $14.81 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $11.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of MED?
The PEG ratio of MEDIFAST INC is 0.97 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of MEDIFAST INC (MED)?
Balance-sheet figures for MEDIFAST INC (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −9.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MED from its 52-week high?
MEDIFAST INC trades at $11.95, about 15% below its 52-week high of $14.06 and 26% above the low of $9.45 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MEDIFAST INC?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Rollins, Inc, Service Corporation, Frontdoor, Inc, H&R Block, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MEDIFAST INC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $11.95, calculated fair value $12.90 (+8%), Quality Score 51/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MED calculated?
We run MEDIFAST INC through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $12.90, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. MEDIFAST INC currently trades 8 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MEDIFAST INC (MED)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $11.95. Our model-based fair value is $12.90, about +8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MEDIFAST INC right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of MEDIFAST INC (MED) come from?
Earnings per share at MEDIFAST INC grew +15.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +15.4 %, EBIT margin −3.3 %, tax rate +2.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of MEDIFAST INC

How large is the market capitalisation of MEDIFAST INC (MED)?
The market capitalisation of MEDIFAST INC is $131M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MEDIFAST INC (MED)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MEDIFAST INC is 0.35 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MEDIFAST INC (MED)?
Earnings per share at MEDIFAST INC are $−1.82. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of MEDIFAST INC (MED)?
The dividend yield of MEDIFAST INC is 0.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of MEDIFAST INC (MED)?
The net margin of MEDIFAST INC is −4.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MEDIFAST INC (MED)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MEDIFAST INC is −9.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MEDIFAST INC (MED)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MEDIFAST INC is 29.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MEDIFAST INC (MED)?
The operating margin of MEDIFAST INC is −7.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MEDIFAST INC (MED)?
Revenue at MEDIFAST INC is growing −34.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −37.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MEDIFAST INC (MED)?
Earnings per share at MEDIFAST INC are growing −87.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does MEDIFAST INC (MED) hold?
MEDIFAST INC holds more cash than debt, $72.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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