MEDIFAST INC (MED) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of MEDIFAST INC stock $11.35, price $13.37, that is 15.1% below the price, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 9 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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MEDIFAST INC
MED · USOur calculation puts a fair price 15% below what the stock costs today.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.45 – $218.01 · fair‑value band $10.75 – $12.26 · the $13.37 price screens above the $11.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Company profile
Medifast, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a health and wellness company that provides habit-based and coach-guided lifestyle solutions to address weight loss in the United States.
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The company offers weight loss, weight management, and healthy living products comprising bars, cereals, snack straws, hot chocolate, hearty choices, oatmeal, pancakes, puddings, soft serves, shakes, smoothies, soft bakes, soups, essential amino acid blends, whey protein, hot beverages, brownies, and mini meals under the Essential Fuelings, OPTAVIA ASCEND, and OPTAVIA ACTIVE categories, as well as daily nutrient packs, including multivitamins, minerals, and omega-3 fatty acid supplements.
It also provides lifestyle plans consisting of 5 & 1 Plan and 5 & 1 ACTIVE Plan, which provides a targeted reset of the body's metabolism by activating strong and targeted fat burn; Optimal Weight 4 & 2 & 1 Plan and Optimal Weight 4 & 2 ACTIVE Plan, which is designed for clients who want to continue eating all food groups or want a flexible meal plan to achieve a healthy weight; OPTAVIA Optimization Plan, a personalized approach to help clients' long-term weight management; and OPTAVIA GLP-1 Nutrition Support Plan, a nutritional companion to GLP-1 medication that allows clients to focus on weight loss without the stress of figuring out what to eat.
In addition, the company offers metabolic synchronization, a science that reverses metabolic dysfunction through a targeted reset of the body's metabolism. It markets its products through point-of-sale transactions executed over an e-commerce platform.
The company serves health and wellness consumers. The company was formerly known as Healthrite, Inc. and changed its name to Medifast, Inc. in May 2001. Medifast, Inc. was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland.
Stock analysis
MEDIFAST INC (MED) currently trades at $13.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.35, 15% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $14.48 per share, and 2 of the 9 models we run sit above the $13.37 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $7.23, and 7 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $10.75 (bear) to $12.26 (bull), the price of $13.37 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
MEDIFAST INC reported revenue of $386M in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound −29.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$18.7M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $149M Micro · P/S ratio 0.47 · EPS (TTM) $−2.33 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin −4.8% · Return on equity −20.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 29.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin −26.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 8 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at −15%, MED screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
All 9 models by family
Quality Score breakdown
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Insider trades
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors bought shares worth $1.5M, most recently on Nov 4, 2026. Over the same period, one person sold shares worth $226,300. Buying cluster
- BuyParsa KiaiDirector5× since Aug 19, 2026: 126,184 shares, avg. $11.89$1.5MNov 4, 2026
- SaleDaniel R ChardDirector19,089 shares at $11.86$226,300Sep 29, 202610b5-1 plan
- BuyScott SchlackmanDirector5,000 shares at $12.59$62,950May 11, 2026
- BuyDaniel R ChardChairman & CEO, Director17,678 shares at $10.11$178,725Mar 20, 2026
Plus 5 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 9, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
MED screens overvalued: fair value 15% below the price. Compare with Rollins, Inc →
Compare MEDIFAST INC with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Personal Services · 40 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Personal Services median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Return on equity by industry
- Quality Score by industry
- Piotroski F-Score screener with fair value
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Personal Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H&R Block, Inc HRB | $50.98 | $92.29 | +81% | vs MED |
| Musti Group MUSTI | €14.65 | €24.86 | +70% | vs MED |
| CEWE Stiftung & Co CWC | €115.80 | €156.87 | +35% | vs MED |
| Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc BFAM | $51.97 | $69.81 | +34% | vs MED |
| Propel Funeral Partners Limited PFP | A$2.72 | A$2.88 | +6% | vs MED |
| Carriage Services, Inc CSV | $28.63 | $26.74 | −7% | vs MED |
| Frontdoor, Inc FTDR | $100.73 | $78.50 | −22% | vs MED |
| Service Corporation SCI | $73.17 | $53.61 | −27% | vs MED |
| Rollins, Inc ROL | $38.74 | $21.13 | −45% | vs MED |
| Lungyen Life Service Corporation 5530 | 44.95 TWD | 15.88 TWD | −65% | vs MED |
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