Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mahanagar Gas Limited stock ₹1,020, price ₹1,130, that is 9.7% below the price, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹614.60 – ₹1,902 · fair‑value band ₹552.72 – ₹1,810 · the ₹1,130 price screens above the ₹1,020 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Mahanagar Gas Limited operates as a natural gas distribution company in India.
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The company supplies piped natural gas (PNG) to domestic households for cooking and water heating, as well as for nursing homes, flight kitchens, and places of worship; commercial establishments, including hospitals, hotels, restaurants, and charitable trusts; and industries, such as metals, pharmaceuticals, printing and dyeing, food and beverages, oil mills, FMCG product manufacturers, power generation, and air-conditioning.
It also provides compressed natural gas to transport sector. In addition, it engages in sale of pipes and fittings required for construction of pipeline infrastructure. Further, the company supplies liquefied natural gas to heavy motor vehicles.
The company operates 385 CNG filling stations with 2,399 dispensing points; 652 kilometers of steel pipeline; and 6887 kilometers of poly-ethylene pipeline. Mahanagar Gas Limited was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Mumbai, India.
Stock analysis
Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) currently trades at ₹1,130, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹1,020, 10% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹1,895 per share, and 11 of the 26 models we run sit above the ₹1,130 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ₹331.42, and 15 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹552.72 (bear) to ₹1,810 (bull), the price of ₹1,130 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Mahanagar Gas Limited reported revenue of ₹82.5B in FY2026 versus ₹35.4B in FY2022, a compound +23.6%/yr. Reported net income was ₹8.4B in FY2026, compounding +9.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹112B (≈ $1.2B) Small · P/E ratio 16.9 · P/S ratio 1.31 · EPS (TTM) ₹66.78 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 8.4% · Return on equity 13.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −10%, MGL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear₹552.72Fair Value ₹1,020Bull₹1,810
Price ₹1,130 · Downside -9.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹22.47 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.8% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+9.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.3% vs 10.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.36% → 13%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+50.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +44.6% a year for the price and +6.1% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 107 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Above median
Fair Value upside−9.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)13.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)8.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)9.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)13.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mahanagar Gas Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MGL
Frequently asked questions
Is Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹1,020 versus a price of ₹1,130, about 10% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MGL?
Our model-based fair value for Mahanagar Gas Limited is ₹1,020 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹1,130.
What is the quality score of MGL?
Mahanagar Gas Limited has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹1,020 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹552.72, optimistic scenario ₹1,810. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mahanagar Gas Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹1,020, about 10% lower versus a price of ₹1,130 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹552.72, optimistic scenario ₹1,810. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL)?
Mahanagar Gas Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹85.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Mahanagar Gas Limited pay a dividend?
Mahanagar Gas Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 2.66% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Mahanagar Gas Limited pays a dividend of ₹30.00 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 18, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2016. The payout ratio is 44.9% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.35 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mahanagar Gas Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +50.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +31.0 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MGL use?
Our models discount Mahanagar Gas Limited at 12.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.69, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mahanagar Gas Limited that is +50.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mahanagar Gas Limited grew +31.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +50.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mahanagar Gas Limited (+50.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.92 %: that much free cash flow Mahanagar Gas Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mahanagar Gas Limited it is ₹1,020 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of ₹1,130. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Mahanagar Gas Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, MGL trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹1,130, fair value ₹1,020, a gap of about −10% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MGL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹1,130); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹1,020). For Mahanagar Gas Limited the two are ₹109.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mahanagar Gas Limited worth?
The market values Mahanagar Gas Limited at about ₹112B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is ₹1,130; our models calculate a fair value of ₹1,020 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MGL?
Our models span a range for Mahanagar Gas Limited: cautious scenario ₹552.72, base ₹1,020, optimistic ₹1,810 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price ₹1,130). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MGL?
Mahanagar Gas Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.9 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹1,020 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2026 ex one-offs: 13.0. Other multiples: P/B 1.7, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 8.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mahanagar Gas Limited (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 13.6%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MGL from its 52-week high?
Mahanagar Gas Limited trades at ₹1,130, about 9% below its 52-week high of ₹1,246 and 24% above the low of ₹908.40 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹1,020 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mahanagar Gas Limited?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, Snam S.p.A, NiSource Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mahanagar Gas Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price ₹1,130, calculated fair value ₹1,020 (−10%), Quality Score 52/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MGL calculated?
We run Mahanagar Gas Limited through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ₹1,020 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Mahanagar Gas Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ₹1,130. Our model-based fair value is ₹1,020, about 10% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mahanagar Gas Limited right now?
The model range is unusually wide (₹552.72 to ₹1,810). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) come from?
Earnings per share at Mahanagar Gas Limited grew +13.6 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +15.0 %, EBIT margin −2.7 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mahanagar Gas Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL)?
The market capitalisation of Mahanagar Gas Limited is ₹112B (≈ $1.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mahanagar Gas Limited is 1.31 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL)?
Earnings per share at Mahanagar Gas Limited are ₹66.78 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL)?
The dividend yield of Mahanagar Gas Limited is 2.7% (payout 44.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL)?
The net margin of Mahanagar Gas Limited is 8.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mahanagar Gas Limited is 13.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mahanagar Gas Limited is 15.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL)?
The operating margin of Mahanagar Gas Limited is 9.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL)?
Revenue at Mahanagar Gas Limited is growing +13.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL)?
Earnings per share at Mahanagar Gas Limited are growing −39.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) carry?
The net debt of Mahanagar Gas Limited is ₹1.1B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026