MilDef Group (MILDEF) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · SE · Market cap 8.9B SEK
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +22.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 78% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 66.78). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (kr 34.25 to kr 66.78) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 34.00 – kr 284.25 · fair‑value band kr 34.25 – kr 66.78 · the kr 226.80 price screens above the kr 50.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
MilDef Group (MILDEF) currently trades at kr 226.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 50.52, implying the stock looks roughly 77.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, MilDef Group generated revenue of 2.4B SEK at a net margin of 9.1%. Revenue grew 108.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.5%. Net debt stands at 807M SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 34.25 (bear case) to kr 66.78 (bull case); at kr 226.80, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 107% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -78%, MILDEF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (kr 153.85) versus Asset-Based (kr 21.61). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
MilDef Group AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells rugged IT solutions in Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark, the United Kingdom, Germany, Switzerland, the United States, Australia, and internationally.
Full company description
MilDef Group AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells rugged IT solutions in Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark, the United Kingdom, Germany, Switzerland, the United States, Australia, and internationally. The company offers IT equipment, rugged computers, KVM, switches, routers, power distribution, customer projects, and accessories; laptops, tablets, and handhelds; intelligent displays; special electronics; concept products; and fiber optic and keyboards. It also provides OneCIS, a tactical C2IS platform; development services; and consulting services, such as project management and facilitating, change management and benefit realization, service design and architecture, and IT advisory and security. In addition, the company offers integration services, including systems engineering and design; ILS-management and technical support; system safety; technical documentation; project, program, and portfolio management; integration, installation, and maintenance; helpdesk, and service desk services. It sells its products to national and critical infrastructure sectors. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Helsingborg, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MilDef Group reported revenue of kr 2.0B in FY2025 versus kr 470M in FY2021, a compound +44.5%/yr. Reported net income was kr 148M in FY2025.
MILDEF screens 78% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 226 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $381.22 | $116.71 | -69% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $195.93 | $88.37 | -55% |
| Airbus SE 1AIR | €213.25 | €86.20 | -60% |
| The Boeing Company BA | $217.11 | $48.20 | -78% |
| China CSSC Holdings 600150 | ¥34.31 | ¥21.90 | -36% |
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 | 466,000 KRW | 272,966 KRW | -41% |
| Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 | 967,000 KRW | 573,468 KRW | -41% |
| ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS | 337.50 TRY | 130.70 TRY | -61% |
| Saab AB SAABB | kr 520.40 | kr 212.84 | -59% |
| Kongsberg Gruppen ASA KOG | kr 277.50 | kr 106.93 | -61% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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