MilDef Group AB (MILDEF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of MilDef Group AB SEK 50.52, price SEK 246, upside -79.4%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 35.27 – kr 284.25 · fair‑value band kr 25.55 – kr 66.79 · the kr 245.50 price screens above the kr 50.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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MilDef Group AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells rugged IT solutions in Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark, the United Kingdom, Germany, Switzerland, the United States, Australia, and internationally.
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MilDef Group AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells rugged IT solutions in Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark, the United Kingdom, Germany, Switzerland, the United States, Australia, and internationally. The company offers IT equipment, rugged computers, KVM, switches, routers, power distribution, customer projects, and accessories; laptops, tablets, and handhelds; intelligent displays; special electronics; concept products; and fiber optic and keyboards. It also provides OneCIS, a tactical C2IS platform; development services; and consulting services, such as project management and facilitating, change management and benefit realization, service design and architecture, and IT advisory and security. In addition, the company offers integration services, including systems engineering and design; ILS-management and technical support; system safety; technical documentation; project, program, and portfolio management; integration, installation, and maintenance; helpdesk, and service desk services. It sells its products to national and critical infrastructure sectors. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Helsingborg, Sweden.
Stock analysis
MilDef Group AB (MILDEF) currently trades at kr 245.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 50.52, implying the stock looks roughly 385.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of kr 143.58 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the kr 245.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 21.61, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: kr 25.55 (bear) to kr 66.79 (bull), the price of kr 245.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
MilDef Group AB reported revenue of 2.0B SEK in FY2025 versus 470M SEK in FY2021, a compound +44.5%/yr. Reported net income was 148M SEK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 11.5B SEK (≈ $1.2B) · P/E ratio 42.9 · P/S ratio 3.10 · EPS (TTM) kr 5.72 · Net margin 7.2% · Return on equity 17.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8% · Operating margin 12.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 124% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −79%, MILDEF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 25.55Fair Value kr 50.52Bull kr 66.79
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 4.18 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+70.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+23.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 10%
2025 sits 202% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 228 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−79% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)13% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth65% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.30× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)42.9× · Pricier than median
P/B7.57× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)4.33× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA25.2× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 47
PAST (return on equity)71· sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)85· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 17
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MilDef Group AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MILDEF
Frequently asked questions
Is MilDef Group AB (MILDEF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 50.52 versus a price of kr 245.50, about −79% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MILDEF?
Our model-based fair value for MilDef Group AB is kr 50.52 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 245.50.
What is the quality score of MILDEF?
MilDef Group AB has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MilDef Group AB (MILDEF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 50.52 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 25.55, optimistic scenario kr 66.79. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MilDef Group AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 50.52, about −79% upside versus a price of kr 245.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 25.55, optimistic scenario kr 66.79. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MilDef Group AB (MILDEF)?
MilDef Group AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.7B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of MilDef Group AB (MILDEF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MilDef Group AB it is kr 50.52 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 245.50. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MilDef Group AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MILDEF trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 245.50, fair value kr 50.52, a gap of about −79% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MILDEF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 245.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 50.52). For MilDef Group AB the two are kr 194.98 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MilDef Group AB worth?
The market values MilDef Group AB at about 11.5B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 245.50; our models calculate a fair value of kr 50.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MILDEF?
Our models span a range for MilDef Group AB: cautious scenario kr 25.55, base kr 50.52, optimistic kr 66.79 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 245.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MILDEF?
MilDef Group AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 42.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 50.52 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 7.6, P/S 4.3, EV/EBITDA 25.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of MilDef Group AB (MILDEF)?
Balance-sheet figures for MilDef Group AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 17.6%, debt of 0.30 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MILDEF from its 52-week high?
MilDef Group AB trades at kr 245.50, about 1% below its 52-week high of kr 247.90 and 124% above the low of kr 109.76 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 50.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MilDef Group AB?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Safran SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MilDef Group AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 245.50, calculated fair value kr 50.52 (−79%), Quality Score 39/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MILDEF calculated?
We run MilDef Group AB through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 50.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. MilDef Group AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MilDef Group AB (MILDEF)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was kr 245.50. Our model-based fair value is kr 50.52, about −79% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MilDef Group AB right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 66.79). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (kr 25.55 to kr 66.79). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of MilDef Group AB
How large is the market capitalisation of MilDef Group AB (MILDEF)?
The market capitalisation of MilDef Group AB is 11.5B SEK (≈ $1.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MilDef Group AB (MILDEF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MilDef Group AB is 3.10 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MilDef Group AB (MILDEF)?
Earnings per share at MilDef Group AB are kr 5.72 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 42.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of MilDef Group AB (MILDEF)?
The net margin of MilDef Group AB is 7.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MilDef Group AB (MILDEF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MilDef Group AB is 17.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MilDef Group AB (MILDEF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MilDef Group AB is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MilDef Group AB (MILDEF)?
The operating margin of MilDef Group AB is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MilDef Group AB (MILDEF)?
Revenue at MilDef Group AB is growing +64.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +40.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MilDef Group AB (MILDEF)?
Earnings per share at MilDef Group AB are growing +515% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does MilDef Group AB (MILDEF) generate?
The free cash flow of MilDef Group AB is −31.6M SEK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does MilDef Group AB (MILDEF) carry?
The net debt of MilDef Group AB is 807M SEK (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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