Mitek Systems Inc (MITK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Mitek Systems Inc $10.90, price $17.69, upside -38.4%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.11 – $23.03 · fair‑value band $8.18 – $14.12 · the $17.69 price screens above the $10.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Mitek Systems, Inc. provides digital identity verification and fraud prevention solutions worldwide.
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Mitek Systems, Inc. provides digital identity verification and fraud prevention solutions worldwide. The company offers Mobile Deposit, a mobile remote deposit capture solution for retail financial institutions, brokerages, and prepaid card providers; Check Fraud Defender, a cloud-hosted fraud mitigation service; Mitek Verified Identity Platform, an end-to-end identity verification solution; Mobile Verify, an omnichannel identity document verification engine; MiSnap, a software development kit that replaces manual image capture with auto-capture; CheckReader, which enables financial institutions to automatically extract data from checks once they have been scanned or photographed by the application; and Check Intelligence, a check fraud solution. It also provides IDLive Face, a passive face liveness detection; IDLive Doc, a document liveness detection; and IDLive Voice, an anti-spoofing voice liveness. The company was incorporated in 1986 and is based in San Diego, California.
Stock analysis
Mitek Systems Inc (MITK) currently trades at $17.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.90, implying the stock looks roughly 62.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $16.02 per share, and 4 of the 24 models we run sit above the $17.69 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $3.05, and 20 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $8.18 (bear) to $14.12 (bull), the price of $17.69 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Mitek Systems Inc reported revenue of $180M in FY2025 versus $120M in FY2021, a compound +10.7%/yr. Reported net income was $8.8M in FY2025, compounding +2.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $830M · P/E ratio 52.0 · P/S ratio 2.55 · EPS (TTM) $0.3400 · Net margin 4.9% · Return on equity 7.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.0% · Operating margin 24.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 105% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at −38%, MITK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $8.18Fair Value $10.90Bull $14.12
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3344 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +21.6% a year
Revenue growth 37 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +7.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1% vs 11%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 127% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.9% a year for the price and +4.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 721 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−38% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)25% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.60× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)52.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.46× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)4.38× · Pricier than median
P/FCF15.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA19.5× · Pricier than median
PEG1.28× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)28· sector 38
PAST (return on equity)29· sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)70· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 30
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mitek Systems Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MITK
Frequently asked questions
Is Mitek Systems Inc (MITK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.90 versus a price of $17.69, about −38% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MITK?
Our model-based fair value for Mitek Systems Inc is $10.90 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $17.69.
What is the quality score of MITK?
Mitek Systems Inc has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mitek Systems Inc (MITK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.90 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.18, optimistic scenario $14.12. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mitek Systems Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.90, about −38% upside versus a price of $17.69 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.18, optimistic scenario $14.12. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mitek Systems Inc (MITK)?
Mitek Systems Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $190M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mitek Systems Inc (MITK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mitek Systems Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +10.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.1 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MITK use?
Our models discount Mitek Systems Inc at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.01, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mitek Systems Inc that is +10.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mitek Systems Inc (MITK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mitek Systems Inc grew +12.1 % a year. The price currently implies +10.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mitek Systems Inc (MITK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mitek Systems Inc (+10.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mitek Systems Inc (MITK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.53 %: that much free cash flow Mitek Systems Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mitek Systems Inc (MITK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mitek Systems Inc it is $10.90 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $17.69. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mitek Systems Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MITK trades above its calculated fair value: price $17.69, fair value $10.90, a gap of about −38% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MITK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($17.69); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.90). For Mitek Systems Inc the two are $6.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mitek Systems Inc worth?
The market values Mitek Systems Inc at about $830M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $17.69; our models calculate a fair value of $10.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MITK?
Our models span a range for Mitek Systems Inc: cautious scenario $8.18, base $10.90, optimistic $14.12 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $17.69). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MITK?
Mitek Systems Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 52.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.90 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 3.5, P/S 4.4, EV/EBITDA 19.5.
What is the PEG ratio of MITK?
The PEG ratio of Mitek Systems Inc is 1.28 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mitek Systems Inc (MITK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mitek Systems Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 7.2%, debt of 0.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MITK from its 52-week high?
Mitek Systems Inc trades at $17.69, about 12% below its 52-week high of $20.14 and 105% above the low of $8.65 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mitek Systems Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Uber Technologies, Inc, Salesforce, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mitek Systems Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $17.69, calculated fair value $10.90 (−38%), Quality Score 66/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MITK calculated?
We run Mitek Systems Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.90, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Mitek Systems Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mitek Systems Inc (MITK)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $17.69. Our model-based fair value is $10.90, about −38% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mitek Systems Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($14.12). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Mitek Systems Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Mitek Systems Inc (MITK)?
The market capitalisation of Mitek Systems Inc is $830M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mitek Systems Inc (MITK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mitek Systems Inc is 2.55 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mitek Systems Inc (MITK)?
Earnings per share at Mitek Systems Inc are $0.3400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 52.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Mitek Systems Inc (MITK)?
The net margin of Mitek Systems Inc is 4.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mitek Systems Inc (MITK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mitek Systems Inc is 7.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mitek Systems Inc (MITK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mitek Systems Inc is 3.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mitek Systems Inc (MITK)?
The operating margin of Mitek Systems Inc is 24.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mitek Systems Inc (MITK)?
Revenue at Mitek Systems Inc is growing +5.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Mitek Systems Inc (MITK) carry?
The net debt of Mitek Systems Inc is $1.0M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026