Naked Wines plc (MJWNY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 21, 2026: fair value of Naked Wines plc $11.34, price $3.78, upside +200.0%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range $1.45 – $41.67 · fair‑value band $8.87 – $14.46 · the $3.78 price screens below the $11.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Naked Wines plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the direct-to-consumer retailing of wines in Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. It also operates as an online wine retailer. The company was formerly known as Majestic Wine plc and changed its name to Naked Wines plc in August 2019.
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Naked Wines plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the direct-to-consumer retailing of wines in Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. It also operates as an online wine retailer. The company was formerly known as Majestic Wine plc and changed its name to Naked Wines plc in August 2019. Naked Wines plc was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Norwich, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Naked Wines plc (MJWNY) currently trades at $3.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.34, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $14.42 per share, and 6 of the 7 models we run sit above the $3.78 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.90, and 1 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $8.87 (bear) to $14.46 (bull), the price of $3.78 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Naked Wines plc reported revenue of £250M in FY2025 versus £340M in FY2021, a compound −7.4%/yr. Reported net income was −£4.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $69.8M · P/S ratio 0.28 · EPS (TTM) $−0.1100 · Net margin −2.0% · Return on equity −2.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.6% · Operating margin −2.7% · Revenue (TTM) £227M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at 200%, MJWNY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $8.87Fair Value $11.34Bull $14.46
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.33/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−13.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.3% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−2.4% (2020) → −1.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−36.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in GBP, UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −38.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 98 stocks
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Is Naked Wines plc (MJWNY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.34 versus a price of $3.78, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MJWNY?
Our model-based fair value for Naked Wines plc is $11.34 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.78.
What is the quality score of MJWNY?
Naked Wines plc has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Naked Wines plc (MJWNY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.34 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.87, optimistic scenario $14.46. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Naked Wines plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.34, about +200% upside versus a price of $3.78 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $8.87, optimistic scenario $14.46. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Naked Wines plc (MJWNY)?
Naked Wines plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £227M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Naked Wines plc (MJWNY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Naked Wines plc would have to grow free cash flow by -36.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MJWNY use?
Our models discount Naked Wines plc at 13.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.27, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Naked Wines plc that is -36.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Naked Wines plc (MJWNY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Naked Wines plc grew +4.3 % a year. The price currently implies -36.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Naked Wines plc (MJWNY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Naked Wines plc (-36.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Naked Wines plc (MJWNY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 30.43 %: that much free cash flow Naked Wines plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Naked Wines plc (MJWNY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Naked Wines plc it is $11.34 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $3.78. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Naked Wines plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MJWNY trades below its calculated fair value: price $3.78, fair value $11.34, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MJWNY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.78); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.34). For Naked Wines plc the two are $7.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Naked Wines plc worth?
The market values Naked Wines plc at about $69.8M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $3.78; our models calculate a fair value of $11.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MJWNY?
Our models span a range for Naked Wines plc: cautious scenario $8.87, base $11.34, optimistic $14.46 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $3.78). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Naked Wines plc (MJWNY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Naked Wines plc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −2.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MJWNY from its 52-week high?
Naked Wines plc trades at $3.78, about 9% below its 52-week high of $4.15 and 11% above the low of $3.40 (as of Sep 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Naked Wines plc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Naked Wines plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $3.78, calculated fair value $11.34 (+200%), Quality Score 63/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MJWNY calculated?
We run Naked Wines plc through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Naked Wines plc currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Naked Wines plc (MJWNY)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $3.78. Our model-based fair value is $11.34, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Naked Wines plc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($8.87). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Naked Wines plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Naked Wines plc (MJWNY)?
The market capitalisation of Naked Wines plc is $69.8M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Naked Wines plc (MJWNY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Naked Wines plc is 0.28 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Naked Wines plc (MJWNY)?
Earnings per share at Naked Wines plc are $−0.1100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Naked Wines plc (MJWNY)?
The net margin of Naked Wines plc is −2.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Naked Wines plc (MJWNY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Naked Wines plc is −2.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Naked Wines plc (MJWNY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Naked Wines plc is −3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Naked Wines plc (MJWNY)?
The operating margin of Naked Wines plc is −2.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Naked Wines plc (MJWNY)?
Revenue at Naked Wines plc is growing −20.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Naked Wines plc (MJWNY) hold?
Naked Wines plc holds more cash than debt, £23.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026