H&K AG (MLHK) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · FR · Market cap €1.2B
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +18.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 67% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€27.60). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (€7.57 to €27.60). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €24.95 – €197.36 · fair‑value band €7.57 – €27.60 · the €34.10 price screens above the €11.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
H&K AG (MLHK) currently trades at €34.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €11.30, implying the stock looks roughly 66.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, H&K AG generated revenue of €439M at a net margin of 11.9%. Revenue grew 57.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 32.8%. Net debt stands at €85.3M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €7.57 (bear case) to €27.60 (bull case); at €34.10, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 74% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -67%, MLHK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€21.56) versus Dividend Discount (€0.7400). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
H&K AG, together with its subsidiary, develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes infantry and small arms for military and governmental authority personnel in Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and internationally.
Full company description
H&K AG, together with its subsidiary, develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes infantry and small arms for military and governmental authority personnel in Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and internationally. It provides pistols, machine pistols, assault rifles, marksman rifles, submachine guns, 40 mm systems, and machine guns for military and law enforcement. The company also offers hunting and sports related pistols and semi-automatic rifles; grenade launchers and specialist equipment; and various training systems, as well as special interest publications and dealer locator services. In addition, it operates metal-finishing plant. The company was founded in 1949 and is based in Oberndorf am Neckar, Germany. H&K AG is a subsidiary of Compagnie de Développement de l'Eau S.A.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
H&K AG reported revenue of €393M in FY2025 versus €290M in FY2021, a compound +7.9%/yr. Reported net income was €39.5M in FY2025, compounding +16.0%/yr from FY2021.
MLHK screens 67% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 226 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $381.22 | $116.71 | -69% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $195.93 | $88.37 | -55% |
| Airbus SE 1AIR | €213.25 | €86.20 | -60% |
| The Boeing Company BA | $217.11 | $48.20 | -78% |
| China CSSC Holdings 600150 | ¥34.31 | ¥21.90 | -36% |
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 | 466,000 KRW | 272,966 KRW | -41% |
| Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 | 967,000 KRW | 573,468 KRW | -41% |
| ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS | 337.50 TRY | 130.70 TRY | -61% |
| Saab AB SAABB | kr 520.40 | kr 212.84 | -59% |
| Kongsberg Gruppen ASA KOG | kr 277.50 | kr 106.93 | -61% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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