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Modernform Group (MODERN) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · TH · Market cap 1.4B THB

MG Modernform Group MODERN · BK
Price2.00 THB
Fair Value2.59 THB
Upside+29.5%
Quality64/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 3.6% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
7.35% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (9/14)
Narrow moat 30/100
Evidence: High Range 1.99 THB – 3.24 THB Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 30 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from 3.10 THB to 2.59 THB (−16.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −1.0% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 30% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • Our model range runs from 1.99 THB (bear) to 3.24 THB (bull), base 2.59 THB. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 64/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

3.29 THB 1.59 THB Fair Value 2.59 THB Jan 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 1.59 THB – 3.29 THB · fair‑value band 1.99 THB – 3.24 THB · the 2.00 THB price screens below the 2.59 THB fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

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Analysis

Modernform Group (MODERN) currently trades at 2.00 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2.59 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 29.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Modernform Group generated revenue of 2.2B THB at a net margin of 3.6%. Revenue declined 2.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 447M THB. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 1.99 THB (bear case) to 3.24 THB (bull case); at 2.00 THB, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at 30%, MODERN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 4.59 THB 5.58 THB 7.11 THB 80
Residual Income 2.29 THB 2.30 THB 2.07 THB 76
Rev-Margin DCF 3.00 THB 3.53 THB 4.23 THB 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 4.48 THB 5.52 THB 7.27 THB 38
Owner Earnings 2.80 THB 3.34 THB 4.24 THB 31
5Y Revenue Exit 3.00 THB 3.44 THB 4.07 THB 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 3.42 THB 4.17 THB 5.15 THB 41
5Y P/E Exit 3.75 THB 4.74 THB 5.92 THB 38
10Y Revenue Exit 3.62 THB 3.98 THB 4.33 THB 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 3.87 THB 4.39 THB 4.91 THB 37
10Y P/E Exit 4.05 THB 4.71 THB 5.32 THB 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 1.04 THB 1.27 THB 1.43 THB 54
EPV 1.52 THB 1.58 THB 1.64 THB 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 1.40 THB 1.51 THB 1.67 THB 70
DDM Multi-Stage 1.40 THB 1.66 THB 2.01 THB 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 2.52 THB 3.35 THB 4.19 THB 63
P/S Multiple 1.94 THB 2.59 THB 3.24 THB 58
P/B Multiple 1.94 THB 2.59 THB 3.24 THB 55
EV/EBIT 2.36 THB 2.80 THB 3.24 THB 53
EV/EBITDA 2.86 THB 3.47 THB 4.08 THB 54
EV/Revenue 1.93 THB 2.31 THB 2.69 THB 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 1.57 THB 2.11 THB 3.15 THB 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 4.59 THB 5.58 THB 7.11 THB 80
Rev-Margin DCF 3.00 THB 3.53 THB 4.23 THB 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 2.29 THB 2.30 THB 2.07 THB 76
ROIC Compounder 1.52 THB 1.58 THB 1.64 THB 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 1.77 THB 2.53 THB 3.29 THB 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (4.17 THB) versus Earnings-Based (1.27 THB). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 2.2B THB
Revenue growth (YoY) -2.0%
Net margin 3.6%
Return on equity 3.7%
Free cash flow 286M THB FY2025
P/E ratio 18.4
More key figures
Operating margin -1.2%
EPS (TTM) 0.1100 THB
Dividend yield 7.4%
EPS growth (YoY) +6.0%
Net cash 447M THB FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55

Profitability 36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 20
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 78
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 75
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 88
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 44
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 37
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 87
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Modernform Group Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes residential and office furniture in Thailand. It operates through four segments: Furniture Business, Furniture Fitting and Other Materials Business, Rental and Service Business, and Architectural Design and Construction Business.

Full company description

Modernform Group Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes residential and office furniture in Thailand. It operates through four segments: Furniture Business, Furniture Fitting and Other Materials Business, Rental and Service Business, and Architectural Design and Construction Business. The company offers office, home, kitchen, and steel case furniture and accessories, as well as walk-in closet and storage sets. It also provides architectural design and construction services, and office rental services. In addition, the company distributes health care products, including equipment and health-related tools for hospitals, rehabilitation facilities, and residences. Modernform Group Public Company Limited was founded in 1930 and is based in Bangkok, Thailand.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Modernform Group reported revenue of 2.2B THB in FY2025 versus 2.4B THB in FY2021, a compound −2.3%/yr. Reported net income was 103M THB in FY2025, compounding +4.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
2.2B THB
Latest YoY
−12.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−5.8%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.9%
Revenue −2.3%/yr
FY21 2.4B THB
FY22 2.4B THB
FY23 2.5B THB
FY24 2.5B THB
FY25 2.2B THB
Net income +4.0%/yr
FY21 88.1M THB
FY22 39.0M THB
FY23 60.0M THB
FY24 135M THB
FY25 103M THB
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −17.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share −4.2 pp

of which total revenue −4.4 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.2 pp

EBIT margin −16.0 pp
Tax rate +0.5 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +2.8 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Modernform Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MODERN

Peer Group

Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 311 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +30% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) -1% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -2% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 7.4% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.00× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 18.4× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.64× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.62× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 5.8× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 73 · sector 22
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 15 · sector 19
HEALTH 100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 52

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Midea Group 000333 ¥82.71 ¥107.22 +30%
Gree Electric Appliances, Inc 000651 ¥38.25 ¥88.02 +130%
Haier Smart Home Co 600690 ¥21.46 ¥36.04 +68%
King Slide Works Co 2059 8,655 TWD 1,917 TWD -78%
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co 603268 ¥155.59 ¥38.95 -75%
SharkNinja, Inc SN $154.53 $89.07 -42%
Hisense Home Appliances Group 000921 ¥26.33 ¥48.03 +82%
Zhejiang Supor Co 002032 ¥43.85 ¥44.84 +2%
Ecovacs Robotics Co 603486 ¥58.97 ¥54.14 -8%
COWAY Co 021240 96,700 KRW 112,530 KRW +16%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Modernform Group (MODERN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2.59 THB versus a price of 2.00 THB, about +30% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MODERN?
Our model-based fair value for Modernform Group is 2.59 THB (as of Jul 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 2.00 THB.
What is the quality score of MODERN?
Modernform Group has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Modernform Group (MODERN)?
Modernform Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.2B THB (latest available figure, as of Jul 11, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MODERN?
The net profit margin of Modernform Group is about 3.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Modernform Group pay a dividend?
Modernform Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.43% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 11, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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