MOGU Inc (MOGU) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $17.2M · ISIN US6080123085

Below-average quality, trading 36% below our fair value.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

• The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
• The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.93). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
• A fairly wide model range ($1.93 to $3.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.44 – $21.24 · fair‑value band $1.93 – $3.66 · the $1.88 price screens below the $2.93 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.

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Analysis

MOGU Inc (MOGU) currently trades at $1.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.93, implying the stock looks roughly 55.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, MOGU Inc generated revenue of $148M at a net margin of 8.1%. Revenue grew 11.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $81.0M. Fundamentals as of Aug 28, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $1.93 (bear case) to $3.66 (bull case); at $1.88, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 66% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at 56%, MOGU screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 0.44 USD per share, which is 15.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

MOGU Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates an online fashion and lifestyle platform in the People's Republic of China.

Full company description

MOGU Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates an online fashion and lifestyle platform in the People's Republic of China. The company offers fashion apparel and other lifestyle products, including beauty products and accessories provided by third party merchants, as well as personal care, beauty makeup, food, medical beauty, healthcare, and grocery products; and household supplies. It also provides online marketing, commission, financing, technology, and other services to merchants and users; and technology services to brand owners. The company offers its products through mobile applications, including flagship Mogujie app and mini programs on Weixin; and websites comprising Mogu.com, Mogujie.com, and Meilishuo.com. The company was formerly known as Meili Inc. and changed its name to MOGU Inc. in November 2018. MOGU Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

MOGU Inc reported revenue of ¥141M in FY2025 versus ¥482M in FY2021, a compound −26.4%/yr. Reported net income was −¥62.6M in FY2025.

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Peer Group

Internet Retail · 107 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.