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Moonpig Group (MOON) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · GB · Market cap 800M GBX

MG Moonpig Group MOON · LSE
Price£2.70
Fair Value£3.81
Upside+41.2%
Quality83/100
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Weak Growth
Solidly profitable · 13.9% net margin
Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
1.41% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (9/13)
Wide moat 85/100
Evidence: High Range £2.33 – £4.80 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026

From 21 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from £0.4800 to £3.81 (+693.8%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price +11.5% over the past month.

A strong business, screening 41% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The rarer combination: high quality (83/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
  • A fairly wide model range (£2.33 to £4.80) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

£4.53 £0.9559 Fair Value £3.81 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £0.9559 – £4.53 · fair‑value band £2.33 – £4.80 · the £2.70 price screens below the £3.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

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Analysis

Moonpig Group (MOON) currently trades at £2.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £3.81, implying the stock looks roughly 41.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 83/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Moonpig Group generated revenue of £361M at a net margin of 13.1%. Revenue grew 6.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 100.4%. Net debt stands at £108M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from £2.33 (bear case) to £4.80 (bull case); at £2.70, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -24% fair-value upside, at 41%, MOON screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF £2.34 £3.84 £5.95 80
Rev-Margin DCF £1.33 £2.17 £3.25 74
ROIC Compounder £1.37 £1.66 £1.94 72
All 21 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF £2.37 £4.05 £6.56 38
Owner Earnings £2.21 £3.78 £6.14 31
5Y Revenue Exit £1.33 £2.15 £3.21 39
5Y EBITDA Exit £2.46 £4.44 £6.88 41
5Y P/E Exit £2.31 £4.15 £6.20 38
10Y Revenue Exit £1.68 £2.54 £3.74 36
10Y EBITDA Exit £2.39 £4.06 £6.50 37
10Y P/E Exit £2.30 £3.86 £5.99 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd £1.19 £5.16 £7.05 54
Lynch FV £1.33 £1.90 £2.46 50
PEG = 1.0 £1.33 £1.90 £2.46 46
EPV £1.32 £1.54 £1.73 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple £2.88 £3.84 £4.80 63
P/S Multiple £1.13 £1.51 £1.89 58
EV/EBIT £3.23 £4.42 £5.61 53
EV/EBITDA £2.80 £3.85 £4.89 54
EV/Revenue £0.7300 £1.18 £1.63 43
Growth DCF
Growth DCF £2.34 £3.84 £5.95 80
Rev-Margin DCF £1.33 £2.17 £3.25 74
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder £1.37 £1.66 £1.94 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E £2.26 £3.23 £4.20 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (£3.86) versus Economic Profit (£1.66). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 361M GBX
Revenue growth (YoY) +6.7%
Net margin 13.1%
Return on equity 100%
Free cash flow 77.5M GBX FY2026
P/E ratio 15.7
More key figures
Operating margin 19.2%
EPS (TTM) £0.1400
Dividend yield 1.5%
EPS growth (YoY) +31.6%
Net debt 108M GBX FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 83/100

Of which business quality 77 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79

Profitability 90
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 68
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 84
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 35
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 73
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 79
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 88
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Moonpig Group PLC, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a data and technology platform for online greeting cards and gifting in the Netherlands, Ireland, Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. The company operates through the Moonpig, Greetz, and Experiences segments.

Full company description

Moonpig Group PLC, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a data and technology platform for online greeting cards and gifting in the Netherlands, Ireland, Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. The company operates through the Moonpig, Greetz, and Experiences segments. It also engages in trading and holding activities, as well as provides management services. The company sells its products under the Moonpig, Buyagift, Red Letter Days, and Greetz brands through its website and app. Moonpig Group PLC was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Moonpig Group reported revenue of £373M in FY2026 versus £304M in FY2022, a compound +5.2%/yr. Reported net income was £51.7M in FY2026, compounding +13.3%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
£373M
Latest YoY
+6.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+5.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+0.3%
Avg. growth/yr (8Y)
+19.8%
Revenue +5.2%/yr
FY22 £304M
FY23 £320M
FY24 £341M
FY25 £350M
FY26 £373M
Net income +13.3%/yr
FY22 £31.4M
FY23 £26.6M
FY24 £34.2M
FY25 −£11.1M
FY26 £51.7M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Moonpig Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MOON

Peer Group

Specialty Retail · 221 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 83 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +41% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 100% · Top 25%
Return on assets 27% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 14% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 23% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.4% · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 16.9× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 2.89× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 13.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 13.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 88 · sector 31
FUTURE 32 · sector 23
PAST 100 · sector 27
HEALTH 100 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 28 · sector 51

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY $827.04 $405.44 -51%
Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM $222.84 $164.16 -26%
Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA $479.57 $488.39 +2%
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS $208.89 $181.10 -13%
Best Buy Co BBY $83.98 $109.12 +30%
China Tourism Group 601888 ¥52.90 ¥40.40 -24%
Tractor Supply Company TSCO $31.01 $35.52 +15%
Murphy USA Inc MUSA $618.57 $423.35 -32%
Five Below, Inc FIVE $197.71 $117.29 -41%
Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 110.50 TWD 80.98 TWD -27%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Moonpig Group (MOON) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £3.81 versus a price of £2.70, about +41% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MOON?
Our model-based fair value for Moonpig Group is £3.81 (as of Jul 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is £2.70.
What is the quality score of MOON?
Moonpig Group has a Quality Score of 83/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Moonpig Group (MOON)?
Moonpig Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £361M (latest available figure, as of Jul 19, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MOON?
The net profit margin of Moonpig Group is about 13.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 13.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Moonpig Group pay a dividend?
Moonpig Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.51% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 19, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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