Moonpig Group (MOON) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · GB · Market cap 800M GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 21 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from £0.4800 to £3.81 (+693.8%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price +11.5% over the past month.
A strong business, screening 41% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (83/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- A fairly wide model range (£2.33 to £4.80) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.9559 – £4.53 · fair‑value band £2.33 – £4.80 · the £2.70 price screens below the £3.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Moonpig Group (MOON) currently trades at £2.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £3.81, implying the stock looks roughly 41.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 83/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Moonpig Group generated revenue of £361M at a net margin of 13.1%. Revenue grew 6.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 100.4%. Net debt stands at £108M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £2.33 (bear case) to £4.80 (bull case); at £2.70, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -24% fair-value upside, at 41%, MOON screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 21 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (£3.86) versus Economic Profit (£1.66). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 77 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Moonpig Group PLC, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a data and technology platform for online greeting cards and gifting in the Netherlands, Ireland, Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. The company operates through the Moonpig, Greetz, and Experiences segments.
Full company description
Moonpig Group PLC, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a data and technology platform for online greeting cards and gifting in the Netherlands, Ireland, Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. The company operates through the Moonpig, Greetz, and Experiences segments. It also engages in trading and holding activities, as well as provides management services. The company sells its products under the Moonpig, Buyagift, Red Letter Days, and Greetz brands through its website and app. Moonpig Group PLC was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Moonpig Group reported revenue of £373M in FY2026 versus £304M in FY2022, a compound +5.2%/yr. Reported net income was £51.7M in FY2026, compounding +13.3%/yr from FY2022.
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Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 221 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $827.04 | $405.44 | -51% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $222.84 | $164.16 | -26% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $479.57 | $488.39 | +2% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $208.89 | $181.10 | -13% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $83.98 | $109.12 | +30% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥52.90 | ¥40.40 | -24% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $31.01 | $35.52 | +15% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $618.57 | $423.35 | -32% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $197.71 | $117.29 | -41% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 110.50 TWD | 80.98 TWD | -27% |
Compare Moonpig Group with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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