Moonpig Group PLC (MOON) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Moonpig Group PLC £3.81, price £2.63, upside +45.0%, quality 83 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £1.01 – £4.16 · fair‑value band £2.37 – £4.80 · the £2.63 price screens below the £3.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Moonpig Group PLC, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a data and technology platform for online greeting cards and gifting in the Netherlands, Ireland, Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. The company operates through the Moonpig, Greetz, and Experiences segments.
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Moonpig Group PLC, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a data and technology platform for online greeting cards and gifting in the Netherlands, Ireland, Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. The company operates through the Moonpig, Greetz, and Experiences segments. It also engages in trading and holding activities, as well as provides management services. The company sells its products under the Moonpig, Buyagift, Red Letter Days, and Greetz brands through its website and app. Moonpig Group PLC was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Moonpig Group PLC (MOON) currently trades at £2.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £3.81, implying the stock looks roughly 31.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £4.25 per share, and 13 of the 21 models we run sit above the £2.63 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at £1.66, and 8 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: £2.37 (bear) to £4.80 (bull), the price of £2.63 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 83/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Moonpig Group PLC reported revenue of £373M in FY2026 versus £304M in FY2022, a compound +5.2%/yr. Reported net income was £51.7M in FY2026, compounding +13.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 869M GBX · P/E ratio 18.8 · P/S ratio 2.60 · EPS (TTM) £0.1400 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 13.9% · Return on equity 100% · Return on assets (EBIT) 25.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 45%, MOON screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £2.37Fair Value £3.81Bull £4.80
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 5 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.0491 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.8%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
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’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+20.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 21%
2026 sits 81% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.9% a year for the price and +3.1% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 226 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score83 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+45% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets27% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)23% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)18.8× · Pricier than median
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)3.09× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF14.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA13.8× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)93· sector 45
FUTURE (revenue growth)32· sector 25
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)29· sector 62
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Moonpig Group PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MOON
Frequently asked questions
Is Moonpig Group PLC (MOON) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £3.81 versus a price of £2.63, about +45% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MOON?
Our model-based fair value for Moonpig Group PLC is £3.81 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £2.63.
What is the quality score of MOON?
Moonpig Group PLC has a Quality Score of 83/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Moonpig Group PLC (MOON)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £3.81 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario £2.37, optimistic scenario £4.80. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Moonpig Group PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £3.81, about +45% upside versus a price of £2.63 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £2.37, optimistic scenario £4.80. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Moonpig Group PLC (MOON)?
Moonpig Group PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £361M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Moonpig Group PLC pay a dividend?
Moonpig Group PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.45% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Moonpig Group PLC (MOON)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Moonpig Group PLC would have to grow free cash flow by +5.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MOON use?
Our models discount Moonpig Group PLC at 11.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.97, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Moonpig Group PLC that is +5.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Moonpig Group PLC (MOON) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Moonpig Group PLC grew +0.3 % a year. The price currently implies +5.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Moonpig Group PLC (MOON) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Moonpig Group PLC (+5.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Moonpig Group PLC (MOON)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.91 %: that much free cash flow Moonpig Group PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Moonpig Group PLC (MOON)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Moonpig Group PLC it is £3.81 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of £2.63. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Moonpig Group PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MOON trades below its calculated fair value: price £2.63, fair value £3.81, a gap of about +45% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MOON?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£2.63); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£3.81). For Moonpig Group PLC the two are £1.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Moonpig Group PLC worth?
The market values Moonpig Group PLC at about 869M GBX (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is £2.63; our models calculate a fair value of £3.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MOON?
Our models span a range for Moonpig Group PLC: cautious scenario £2.37, base £3.81, optimistic £4.80 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price £2.63). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MOON?
Moonpig Group PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.8 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £3.81 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/S 3.1, EV/EBITDA 13.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Moonpig Group PLC (MOON)?
Balance-sheet figures for Moonpig Group PLC (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 83/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MOON from its 52-week high?
Moonpig Group PLC trades at £2.63, about 10% below its 52-week high of £2.93 and 34% above the low of £1.96 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £3.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Moonpig Group PLC?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Moonpig Group PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price £2.63, calculated fair value £3.81 (+45%), Quality Score 83/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MOON calculated?
We run Moonpig Group PLC through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £3.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Moonpig Group PLC currently trades 45 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Moonpig Group PLC (MOON)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was £2.63. Our model-based fair value is £3.81, about +45% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Moonpig Group PLC right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (83/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. A fairly wide model range (£2.37 to £4.80) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Moonpig Group PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Moonpig Group PLC (MOON)?
The market capitalisation of Moonpig Group PLC is 869M GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Moonpig Group PLC (MOON)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Moonpig Group PLC is 2.60 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Moonpig Group PLC (MOON)?
Earnings per share at Moonpig Group PLC are £0.1400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Moonpig Group PLC (MOON)?
The dividend yield of Moonpig Group PLC is 1.4% (payout 27.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Moonpig Group PLC (MOON)?
The net margin of Moonpig Group PLC is 13.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Moonpig Group PLC (MOON)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Moonpig Group PLC is 100% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Moonpig Group PLC (MOON)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Moonpig Group PLC is 25.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Moonpig Group PLC (MOON)?
The operating margin of Moonpig Group PLC is 19.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Moonpig Group PLC (MOON)?
Revenue at Moonpig Group PLC is growing +6.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Moonpig Group PLC (MOON)?
Earnings per share at Moonpig Group PLC are growing +31.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Moonpig Group PLC (MOON) carry?
The net debt of Moonpig Group PLC is 108M GBX (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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