Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited ₹102, price ₹165, upside -37.9%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹36.01 – ₹277.42 · fair‑value band ₹74.14 – ₹175.56 · the ₹164.76 price screens above the ₹102.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
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Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited engages in the manufacture and sale of refined petroleum products in India. The company produces and sells bitumen, Xylol, high speed diesel, xylol, pet coke, sulphur, and motor gasoline, as well as polypropylene and other products.
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Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited engages in the manufacture and sale of refined petroleum products in India. The company produces and sells bitumen, Xylol, high speed diesel, xylol, pet coke, sulphur, and motor gasoline, as well as polypropylene and other products. It also sells petrochemical products, such as aromatic products comprising paraxylene, benzene, heavy aromatics, paraffinic raffinate, reformate, and toluene. In addition, the company operates retail outlets. It also exports its products. Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited was incorporated in 1988 and is based in Mangalore, India. Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited is a subsidiary of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited.
Stock analysis
Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL) currently trades at ₹164.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹102.33, 37.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ₹168.43 per share, and 8 of the 25 models we run sit above the ₹164.76 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at ₹49.10, and 17 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹74.14 (bear) to ₹175.56 (bull), the price of ₹164.76 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited reported revenue of ₹887B in FY2026 versus ₹698B in FY2022, a compound +6.2%/yr. Reported net income was ₹19.2B in FY2026, compounding −10.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹289B (≈ $3.0B) · P/E ratio 8.9 · P/S ratio 0.19 · EPS (TTM) ₹18.49 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 2.2% · Return on equity 14.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −66% fair-value upside, at −38%, MRPL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹74.14Fair Value ₹102.33Bull ₹175.56
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹7.34 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.4% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−5.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−8.2% vs −0.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2% → 5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+44.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +38.8% a year for the price.
Compare Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 104 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside−37.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14.2% · Above median
Return on assets9.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)2.9% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)2.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth120.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.60× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)8.9× · Cheapest 25%
P/B2.03× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.26× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF67.1× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA4.4× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 99
PAST (return on equity)57· sector 48
HEALTH (low debt)70· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)49· sector 65
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MRPL
Frequently asked questions
Is Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹102.33 versus a price of ₹164.76, about −38% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MRPL?
Our model-based fair value for Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited is ₹102.33 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹164.76.
What is the quality score of MRPL?
Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹102.33 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹74.14, optimistic scenario ₹175.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹102.33, about −38% upside versus a price of ₹164.76 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹74.14, optimistic scenario ₹175.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL)?
Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹1.1T (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited pay a dividend?
Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.43% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +44.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.0 % per year. As of Sep 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MRPL use?
Our models discount Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.09, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited that is +44.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited grew +23.0 % a year. The price currently implies +44.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (+44.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.49 %: that much free cash flow Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited it is ₹102.33 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of ₹164.76. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, MRPL trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹164.76, fair value ₹102.33, a gap of about −38% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MRPL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹164.76); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹102.33). For Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited the two are ₹62.43 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited worth?
The market values Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited at about ₹289B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is ₹164.76; our models calculate a fair value of ₹102.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MRPL?
Our models span a range for Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited: cautious scenario ₹74.14, base ₹102.33, optimistic ₹175.56 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price ₹164.76). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MRPL?
Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.9 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹102.33 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 4.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 14.2%, debt of 0.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MRPL from its 52-week high?
Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited trades at ₹164.76, about 20% below its 52-week high of ₹206.77 and 26% above the low of ₹130.56 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹102.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price ₹164.76, calculated fair value ₹102.33 (−38%), Quality Score 51/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MRPL calculated?
We run Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹102.33, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹164.76. Our model-based fair value is ₹102.33, about −38% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (₹74.14 to ₹175.56) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL) come from?
Earnings per share at Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited grew −0.8 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.1 %, EBIT margin −7.2 %, tax rate −2.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL)?
The market capitalisation of Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited is ₹289B (≈ $3.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited is 0.19 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL)?
Earnings per share at Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited are ₹18.49 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL)?
The dividend yield of Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited is 2.4% (payout 21.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL)?
The net margin of Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited is 2.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited is 14.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited is 12.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL)?
The operating margin of Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited is 2.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL)?
Revenue at Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited is growing +120% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL)?
Earnings per share at Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited are growing −68.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL) carry?
The net debt of Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited is ₹147B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 34.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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