Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A (PSG) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · ES · Market cap €1.5B

A solid business, screening 59% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price is below even our cautious bear case (€3.53). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €1.18 – €3.30 · fair‑value band €3.53 – €5.88 · the €2.96 price screens below the €4.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

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Analysis

Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A (PSG) currently trades at €2.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €4.70, implying the stock looks roughly 58.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A generated revenue of €4.9B at a net margin of 2.5%. Revenue grew 1.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.5%. Net debt stands at €1.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €3.53 (bear case) to €5.88 (bull case); at €2.96, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 59%, PSG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€10.25) versus Asset-Based (€0.9100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A. operates in the private security sector. It operates through Security, Cash, Alarms, Cybersecurity, and AVOS (added-value outsourcing services) segments. The Security segment engages in guarding and protection of premises, goods and individuals, and activities related to technological security solutions.

Full company description

Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A. operates in the private security sector. It operates through Security, Cash, Alarms, Cybersecurity, and AVOS (added-value outsourcing services) segments. The Security segment engages in guarding and protection of premises, goods and individuals, and activities related to technological security solutions. The Cash segment is involved in the transportation, storage, safekeeping, counting, and classification of coins and bank notes, deeds, securities, and other items that require special protection due to their economic value or risk; international payment services, online foreign currency, travel money home delivery, and local cash services; and correspondent banking and auxiliary payment services, inter alia, receipt and payment management, and bill payment services. The Alarms segment engages in the installation and maintenance of home alarm systems, as well as the provision of alarm monitoring services. The Cybersecurity segment provides managed detection and response, managed security, cyber intelligence, readteam, management, and risk and compliance services; integration of cybersecurity technology; and automation of processes for early detection of cyber-attacks on enterprises. The AVOS segment offers business process outsourcing services to enhance operational management through redesign, automation, and digital transformation in financial and insurance companies. The company operates in Austria, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cyprus, Denmark, Ecuador, El Salvador, Germany, Finland, France, Guatemala, Honduras, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Italy, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Peru, the Philippines, Portugal, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Uruguay. The company was incorporated in 1976 and is based in Madrid, Spain. Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A. is a subsidiary of Gubel, S.L.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A reported revenue of €4.9B in FY2025 versus €3.5B in FY2021, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was €119M in FY2025, compounding +30.6%/yr from FY2021.

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Peer Group

Security & Protection Services · 113 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.