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Data-driven stock valuation

Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd (MSLOY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd stock $14.66, price $23.39, upside -37.3%, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · US · ADR · Home Japan

MO Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd logo Some data Oct 23, 2026

Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd

MSLOY · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

Our calculation puts a fair price 37% below what the stock costs today.

Solidly profitable · 10.4% net margin (TTM)
Quality 40/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +14.3 %/yr in JPY)
Moderate debt
2.7% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Some data
Fair value $14.66 · Strongly overvalued (−37.3%)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (4/13)
Narrow moat 36/100
⟳ Cyclical

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$24.07 $1.77 Fair Value $14.66 Sep 2020 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.77 – $24.07 · fair‑value band $9.93 – $18.88 · the $23.39 price screens above the $14.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides marine transportation and vessel chartering services in Japan, North America, Europe, Singapore, rest of Asia, and internationally.

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It operates through Dry Bulk Business; Energy Business; Container Ships; Car Carriers, Terminal and Logistics; Ferries and Coastal RoRo Ships, Cruise; Real Property; and Associated Businesses segments.

The company engages in the dry bulk shipping of raw materials, such as iron ore, coal, wood chips, and biomass fuels, as well as intermediate goods and finished products, including fertilizers, grain, cement, salt, and steel products; ocean freight transportation; owning and operation of a fleet of 10,000 ships; oil tanker, liquified gas and liquefied natural gas carriers, and offshore businesses; and operation of offshore wind power energy and marine projects.

It also provides product transport services, including container shipping through Ocean Network Express brand; car carrier services under the Auto Carrier Express brand; container terminal management; cargo handling; and logistics services comprising heavy cargo transportation, air and ocean freight forwarding, trucking, customs clearance, warehousing, and buyers' consolidation.

In addition, the company engages in the real estate, ferry and coastal RoRo vessel, and cruise businesses; associated businesses, such as tugboat operation, maritime and global HR consulting services, travel, finance, trading, insurance, ICT systems, accounting, and oil stockpiling projects; sale of nautical charts, fuel, marine materials, machinery, and other products; and corporate venture capital activities.

Further, it is involved in loading and unloading work; time chartering and leasing of vessels; maintenance and management of operational systems and system development; and shipping agent activities. Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. was founded in 1884 and is headquartered in Minato, Japan.

Stock analysis

Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd (MSLOY) currently trades at $23.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.66, 37.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $35.75 per share, and 6 of the 12 models we run sit above the $23.39 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $8.28, and 6 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $9.93 (bear) to $18.88 (bull), the price of $23.39 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥1.9T in FY2026 versus ¥1.3T in FY2022, a compound +11.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥226B in FY2026, compounding −24.8%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap $16.1B Large · P/E ratio 11.2 · P/S ratio 1.31 · EPS (TTM) $2.08 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 11.7% · Return on equity 7.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 56% fair-value upside, at −37%, MSLOY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $9.93 Fair Value $14.66 Bull $18.88
Price $23.39 · Upside -37.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.17 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $22.77 $24.45 $27.88 76
Growth-Adj P/E $25.02 $35.75 $46.47 67
Gordon GGM $8.79 $15.77 $25.10 66
All 12 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $14.26 $33.63 $43.30 65
PEG = 1.0 $5.80 $8.28 $10.77 57
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $8.79 $15.77 $25.10 66
DDM Multi-Stage $8.79 $13.32 $18.56 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $33.03 $44.04 $55.05 63
P/S Multiple $26.74 $35.65 $44.56 58
P/B Multiple $83.37 $111.17 $138.96 55
EV/EBIT n/a $0.0800 >$0.3200 61
EV/EBITDA $7.16 $16.60 $26.03 63
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $12.35 $16.55 $24.70 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $22.77 $24.45 $27.88 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $25.02 $35.75 $46.47 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 31
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 27
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 46
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 38
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 11
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 76
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 85
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 97
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 100
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.2% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+32.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+29.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21.3% vs 26.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 7%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)

MSLOY screens overvalued: fair value 37% below the price. Compare with Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (58 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Very negative
Recent news coverage is unusually downbeat.
Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: Limited moat in cyclical marine shipping is supported by firmer tanker and car carrier rates from route disruptions, yet constrained by negative free cash flow and heavy decarbonization outlays.
Main risk: Heavy spending on decarbonization projects such as hydrogen engines and CO2 carriers would hit cash flow and margins amid already negative free cash flow.
Mitsui O.S.K. Lines gains from firmer tanker and car carrier markets driven by route disruptions yet faces heavy spending on decarbonization projects such as hydrogen engines and CO2 carriers. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the temporary lift from geopolitics sustain earnings better than the capital needs of fleet renewal erode them?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Marine Shipping · 226 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −37.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 7.9% · Below median
Return on assets 3.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 10.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 5.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 68.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 2.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.68× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 11.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.87× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 1.19× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 14.1× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 42
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 60
PAST (return on equity)32 · sector 34
HEALTH (low debt)66 · sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)53 · sector 59

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MSLOY

Frequently asked questions

Is Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd (MSLOY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.66 versus a price of $23.39, about −37% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MSLOY?
Our model-based fair value for Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR is $14.66 (as of Oct 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $23.39.
What is the quality score of MSLOY?
Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd (MSLOY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.66 (as of Oct 23, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.93, optimistic scenario $18.88. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.66, about −37% upside versus a price of $23.39 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.93, optimistic scenario $18.88. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd (MSLOY)?
Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.1T (latest available figure, as of Oct 23, 2026).
Does Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 2.67% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd (MSLOY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR it is $14.66 per share (as of Oct 23, 2026), against a price of $23.39. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 23, 2026, MSLOY trades above its calculated fair value: price $23.39, fair value $14.66, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MSLOY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($23.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.66). For Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR the two are $8.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR at about $16.1B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 23, 2026). Per share that is $23.39; our models calculate a fair value of $14.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MSLOY?
Our models span a range for Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $9.93, base $14.66, optimistic $18.88 per share (as of Oct 23, 2026, price $23.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MSLOY?
Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.2 (as of Oct 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $14.66 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 14.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd (MSLOY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR (as of Oct 23, 2026): return on equity 7.9%, debt of 0.68 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MSLOY from its 52-week high?
Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR trades at $23.39, about 3% below its 52-week high of $24.07 and 76% above the low of $13.30 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft,, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 23, 2026: price $23.39, calculated fair value $14.66 (−37%), Quality Score 40/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MSLOY calculated?
We run Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $14.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd (MSLOY)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $23.39. Our model-based fair value is $14.66, about −37% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($18.88). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($9.93 to $18.88) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd (MSLOY) come from?
Earnings per share at Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR grew +34.0 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.7 %, EBIT margin +32.7 %, tax rate +3.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR

How large is the market capitalisation of Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd (MSLOY)?
The market capitalisation of Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR is $16.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd (MSLOY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR is 1.31 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd (MSLOY)?
Earnings per share at Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR are $2.08 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd (MSLOY)?
The dividend yield of Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR is 2.7% (payout 30.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd (MSLOY)?
The net margin of Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR is 11.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd (MSLOY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR is 7.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd (MSLOY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd (MSLOY)?
The operating margin of Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd (MSLOY)?
Revenue at Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR is growing +68.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd (MSLOY)?
Earnings per share at Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR are growing +16.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd (MSLOY) generate?
The free cash flow of Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR is −¥93.4B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd (MSLOY) carry?
The net debt of Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd ADR is ¥2.3T (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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