Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp (MTLHY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp $52.50, price $37.05, upside +41.7%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $19.33 – $40.18 · fair‑value band $45.08 – $52.50 · the $37.05 price screens below the $52.50 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Mitsubishi Chemical Group Corporation engages in the manufacture and sale of performance products, industrial materials, and other products. It operates through four segments: Specialty Materials, MMA & Derivatives, Basic Materials & Polymers, and Industrial Gases.
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Mitsubishi Chemical Group Corporation engages in the manufacture and sale of performance products, industrial materials, and other products. It operates through four segments: Specialty Materials, MMA & Derivatives, Basic Materials & Polymers, and Industrial Gases. The company offers chemical products, such as industrial chemicals, basic petrochemicals, solvents, MMA monomer and derivatives, and acrylonitrile and related products; film and sheet/molding/composite products, including supplemental materials and adhesives, composite materials, synthetic paper, and materials used in production; and battery materials, recording materials and recording media, display materials, imaging materials, lighting materials, information materials, semiconductor materials, and insulating materials. It also provides environment and living solution comprising water treatment, water purifier, separation materials/synthetic adsorbents, civil engineering materials, building materials, equipment and machinery, logistics materials, and HPLC column; commodity polymers and raw materials, engineering plastics, elastomers, PMMA, carbon fiber reinforced plastic, high performance polymers and raw materials, curable materials, catalyst for chemical reaction, additives and modifiers, and coating materials; carbon materials, and carbon fiber and composite materials; zeolite; industrial gases; and plant growing system, food ingredients, and health care products. In addition, the company offers technology license, engineering, machining/contract services, information system, analysis and inspection, survey and consulting, and logistics services. Mitsubishi Chemical Group Corporation was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Chiyoda, Japan.
Stock analysis
Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR (MTLHY) currently trades at $37.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $52.50, implying the stock looks roughly 29.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $31.61 per share, and 7 of the 20 models we run sit above the $37.05 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $18.87, and 13 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $45.08 (bear) to $52.50 (bull), the price of $37.05 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR reported revenue of ¥3.9T in FY2026 versus ¥4.0T in FY2022, a compound −0.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥12.5B in FY2026, compounding −48.4%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $10.2B · EPS (TTM) $−1.88 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 0.3% · Return on equity −0.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3% · Operating margin −8.4% · Revenue (TTM) ¥3.7T.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at 42%, MTLHY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $45.08Fair Value $52.50Bull $52.50
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.9% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−39.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−42.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−43% vs −22%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 12.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.7% a year for the price and −1.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (24 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 714 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside+42% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−10% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.91× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MTLHY
Frequently asked questions
Is Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp (MTLHY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $52.50 versus a price of $37.05, about +42% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MTLHY?
Our model-based fair value for Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR is $52.50 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $37.05.
What is the quality score of MTLHY?
Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp (MTLHY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $52.50 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario $45.08, optimistic scenario $52.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $52.50, about +42% upside versus a price of $37.05 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $45.08, optimistic scenario $52.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp (MTLHY)?
Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥3.7T (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR pay a dividend?
Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.92% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp (MTLHY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +6.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.8 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MTLHY use?
Our models discount Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.67, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR that is +6.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp (MTLHY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR grew +3.8 % a year. The price currently implies +6.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp (MTLHY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR (+6.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp (MTLHY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.03 %: that much free cash flow Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp (MTLHY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR it is $52.50 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $37.05. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MTLHY trades below its calculated fair value: price $37.05, fair value $52.50, a gap of about +42% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MTLHY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($37.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($52.50). For Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR the two are $15.45 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR worth?
The market values Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR at about $10.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $37.05; our models calculate a fair value of $52.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MTLHY?
Our models span a range for Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR: cautious scenario $45.08, base $52.50, optimistic $52.50 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $37.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp (MTLHY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −0.7%, debt of 0.91 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MTLHY from its 52-week high?
Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR trades at $37.05, about 4% below its 52-week high of $38.60 and 41% above the low of $26.23 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $52.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $37.05, calculated fair value $52.50 (+42%), Quality Score 50/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MTLHY calculated?
We run Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $52.50, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR currently trades 42 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp (MTLHY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $37.05. Our model-based fair value is $52.50, about +42% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($45.08). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp (MTLHY) come from?
Earnings per share at Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR grew −7.4 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.0 %, EBIT margin −3.0 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp (MTLHY)?
The market capitalisation of Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR is $10.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp (MTLHY)?
Earnings per share at Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR are $−1.88. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp (MTLHY)?
The dividend yield of Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR is 2.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp (MTLHY)?
The net margin of Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR is 0.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp (MTLHY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR is −0.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp (MTLHY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp (MTLHY)?
The operating margin of Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR is −8.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp (MTLHY)?
Revenue at Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR is growing −10.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp (MTLHY)?
Earnings per share at Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR are growing +74.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp (MTLHY) carry?
The net debt of Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp ADR is ¥1.4T (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 8.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026