Mitsubishi Chemical Group (MTLHY) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · US · Market cap $9.4B

A solid business, but screening 26% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($34.52). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $19.33 – $40.18 · fair‑value band $20.28 – $34.52 · the $37.00 price screens above the $27.28 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

Mitsubishi Chemical Group (MTLHY) currently trades at $37.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $27.28, implying the stock looks roughly 26.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Mitsubishi Chemical Group generated revenue of $3.7T at a net margin of 0.3%. Revenue declined 10.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -0.7%. Net debt stands at $1.4T. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $20.28 (bear case) to $34.52 (bull case); at $37.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at -26%, MTLHY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($17.98) versus Earnings-Based ($1.81). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Mitsubishi Chemical Group Corporation engages in the manufacture and sale of performance products, industrial materials, and other products. It operates through four segments: Specialty Materials, MMA & Derivatives, Basic Materials & Polymers, and Industrial Gases.

Full company description

Mitsubishi Chemical Group Corporation engages in the manufacture and sale of performance products, industrial materials, and other products. It operates through four segments: Specialty Materials, MMA & Derivatives, Basic Materials & Polymers, and Industrial Gases. The company offers chemical products, such as industrial chemicals, basic petrochemicals, solvents, MMA monomer and derivatives, and acrylonitrile and related products; film and sheet/molding/composite products, including supplemental materials and adhesives, composite materials, synthetic paper, and materials used in production; and battery materials, recording materials and recording media, display materials, imaging materials, lighting materials, information materials, semiconductor materials, and insulating materials. It also provides environment and living solution comprising water treatment, water purifier, separation materials/synthetic adsorbents, civil engineering materials, building materials, equipment and machinery, logistics materials, and HPLC column; commodity polymers and raw materials, engineering plastics, elastomers, PMMA, carbon fiber reinforced plastic, high performance polymers and raw materials, curable materials, catalyst for chemical reaction, additives and modifiers, and coating materials; carbon materials, and carbon fiber and composite materials; zeolite; industrial gases; and plant growing system, food ingredients, and health care products. In addition, the company offers technology license, engineering, machining/contract services, information system, analysis and inspection, survey and consulting, and logistics services. Mitsubishi Chemical Group Corporation was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Chiyoda, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Mitsubishi Chemical Group reported revenue of $3.9T in FY2026 versus $4.0T in FY2022, a compound −0.3%/yr. Reported net income was $12.5B in FY2026, compounding −48.4%/yr from FY2022.

MTLHY screens 26% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →

Peer Group

Specialty Chemicals · 676 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.