Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd (MTSFY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd stock $22.68, price $30.34, upside -25.2%, quality 47 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $15.18 – $41.60 · fair‑value band $20.62 – $28.35 · the $30.34 price screens above the $22.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Mitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd. operates as a real estate company in Japan. It operates through five segments: Leasing, Property Sales, Management, Facility Operations, and Other. The Leasing segment leases office buildings and retail facilities, and other properties.
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The Property Sales segment is involved in the sale of condominiums and detached housing to individuals; and rental housing and office buildings and other to investors. The Management segment engages in the property management and brokerage and asset management businesses.
The Facility Operations segment is involved in the hotels and resorts, and sports and entertainment businesses. The Other segment engages in the new construction under consignment. The company was founded in 1941 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd (MTSFY) currently trades at $30.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.68, 25.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $35.70 per share, and 4 of the 9 models we run sit above the $30.34 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $10.88, and 5 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $20.62 (bear) to $28.35 (bull), the price of $30.34 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥2.9T in FY2026 versus ¥2.1T in FY2022, a compound +8.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥295B in FY2026, compounding +13.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $27.4B Large · P/E ratio 18.5 · P/S ratio 1.90 · EPS (TTM) $1.64 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 10.3% · Return on equity 6.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at −25%, MTSFY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$20.62Fair Value $22.68Bull$28.35
Price $30.34 · Upside -25.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.9301 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.43/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.2% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+14.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11.9% vs 10.2%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 15%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (15 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Diversified real estate operations deliver modest recurring returns as the main strength, yet high leverage paired with negative free cash flow remains the central weakness.
Main risk: Swings in condominium sales timing from the long-cycle urban redevelopment pipeline would hit revenue recognition and operating cash flows.
Mitsui Fudosan is repurposing an unused tunnel in Kobe into Japan's first underground data center, with operations slated for late 2027. This move taps into demand for digital infrastructure while the firm manages a pipeline of long-cycle urban redevelopments and faces swings in condominium sales timing. Our models see it as overvalued. Will this infrastructure innovation expand the business into higher-growth areas or remain a niche sideline to traditional property cycles?
Compare Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 130 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−25.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.7% · Above median
Return on assets2.9% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)9.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)16.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−23.1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.12× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)18.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.30× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.70× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA15.9× · Pricier than median
PEG2.60× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 36
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 3
PAST (return on equity)27· sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)44· sector 75
DIVIDEND (yield)46· sector 71
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MTSFY
Frequently asked questions
Is Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd (MTSFY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $22.68 versus a price of $30.34, about −25% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MTSFY?
Our model-based fair value for Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR is $22.68 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $30.34.
What is the quality score of MTSFY?
Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd (MTSFY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $22.68 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $20.62, optimistic scenario $28.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $22.68, about −25% upside versus a price of $30.34 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $20.62, optimistic scenario $28.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd (MTSFY)?
Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.5T (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 2.30% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd (MTSFY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR it is $22.68 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $30.34. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, MTSFY trades above its calculated fair value: price $30.34, fair value $22.68, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MTSFY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($30.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($22.68). For Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR the two are $7.66 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR at about $27.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $30.34; our models calculate a fair value of $22.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MTSFY?
Our models span a range for Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $20.62, base $22.68, optimistic $28.35 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $30.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MTSFY?
Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $22.68 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.6, P/B 1.3, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 15.9.
What is the PEG ratio of MTSFY?
The PEG ratio of Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR is 2.60 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd (MTSFY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 6.7%, debt of 1.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MTSFY from its 52-week high?
Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR trades at $30.34, about 27% below its 52-week high of $41.60 and 14% above the low of $26.65 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $22.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Henderson Land Development Company, Swiss Prime Site AG, The Phoenix Mills Limited, Prestige Estates Projects Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $30.34, calculated fair value $22.68 (−25%), Quality Score 47/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MTSFY calculated?
We run Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $22.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.3 % above its aggregate fair value. Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd (MTSFY)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was $30.34. Our model-based fair value is $22.68, about −25% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($28.35). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd (MTSFY) come from?
Earnings per share at Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR grew +9.4 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.9 %, EBIT margin +1.2 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd (MTSFY)?
The market capitalisation of Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR is $27.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd (MTSFY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR is 1.90 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd (MTSFY)?
Earnings per share at Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR are $1.64 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd (MTSFY)?
The dividend yield of Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR is 2.3% (payout 42.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd (MTSFY)?
The net margin of Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR is 10.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd (MTSFY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd (MTSFY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR is 3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd (MTSFY)?
The operating margin of Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR is 16.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd (MTSFY)?
Revenue at Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR is growing −23.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd (MTSFY)?
Earnings per share at Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR are growing −37.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd (MTSFY) generate?
The free cash flow of Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR is −¥96.6B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd (MTSFY) carry?
The net debt of Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd ADR is ¥4.6T (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026