Myer Holdings (MYR) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · AU · Market cap A$459M
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 10 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price −27.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 80% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.1700). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (A$0.0425 to A$0.1700). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.2100 – A$1.16 · fair‑value band A$0.0425 – A$0.1700 · the A$0.2150 price screens above the A$0.0425 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Myer Holdings (MYR) currently trades at A$0.2150, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0425, implying the stock looks roughly 80.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Myer Holdings generated revenue of A$3.4B at a net margin of -5.9%. Revenue grew 28.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -36.9%. Net debt stands at A$1.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0425 (bear case) to A$0.1700 (bull case); at A$0.2150, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 68% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 50% fair-value upside, at -80%, MYR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 10 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (A$1.40) versus Asset-Based (A$0.3400). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 5
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Myer Holdings Limited operates department stores in Australia and New Zealand. The company offers dresses, tops, pants, skirts, swimwear, jackets and coats, jeans and denim products, shorts, knitwear and sweaters, loungewear, t-shirts, shirts, polos, shorts, chinos, singlets and tanks, coveralls and bodysuits, sets, bottoms, lingerie and sleepwear, …
Full company description
Myer Holdings Limited operates department stores in Australia and New Zealand. The company offers dresses, tops, pants, skirts, swimwear, jackets and coats, jeans and denim products, shorts, knitwear and sweaters, loungewear, t-shirts, shirts, polos, shorts, chinos, singlets and tanks, coveralls and bodysuits, sets, bottoms, lingerie and sleepwear, underwear, socks and tights, jumpsuits, activewear, shoes, suiting and occasionwear, bags and wallets, hats, bags, fascinators and hair accessories, lunchboxes and drink bottles, jewellery and watches, sunglasses, belts and ties, stationery and skin products, bath and body products, beanies, pocket squares and handkerchiefs, gift packs, reading glasses, wraps, umbrellas, and scarves and gloves for women, men, and kids. It also provides perfumes, skincare and makeup products, and gift sets; dinnerware, serveware, glassware, barware, cookware, lunch and drink, tea and coffee making, baking and kitchen linen, and cutlery products; and coffee machines, toasters, kettles, blenders and juicers, mixers and food processors, slow and multi cookers, grills and sandwich makers, fryers, microwaves, snacks and drink makers, vacuum cleaners, irons and garment care products, heating and cooling products, air purifiers and dehumidifiers, whitegoods, ovens, stoves and cooktops, quilt covers, sheets and pillowcases, quilts and pillows, bed covers and coverlets, blankets and electric blankets, cushions and throws, mattress protectors and toppers, kids bedroom products, beds and mattresses, knives and chopping boards, utensils and gadgets, cups and mugs, and table linen products and accessories. In addition, the company offers gift cards; suitcases, bags and travel accessories, audio products, and health and fitness products; gifts; toys; and beauty services. It also sells its products through online. The company was founded in 1900 and is based in Docklands, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Myer Holdings reported revenue of A$3.0B in FY2025 versus A$2.3B in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was −A$211M in FY2025.
of which total revenue −0.3 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.9 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MYR screens 80% overvalued. Compare with Falabella S.A →
Peer Group
Department Stores · 127 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Department Stores median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Department Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falabella S.A FALABELLA | 5,875 CLP | 8,880 CLP | +51% |
| El Puerto de Liverpool, S.A. LIVEPOLC1 | 99.62 MXN | 263.70 MXN | +165% |
| 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings 5326 | 3.70 MYR | 1.45 MYR | -61% |
| Cencosud S.A CENCOSUD | 2,040 CLP | 2,516 CLP | +23% |
| Vishal Mega Mart Limited VMM | ₹113.94 | ₹37.39 | -67% |
| SHINSEGAE Inc 004170 | 610,000 KRW | 200,259 KRW | -67% |
| Organización Soriana, S. A. B. de C. V., SORIANAB | 30.04 MXN | 59.59 MXN | +98% |
| Lotte Shopping Co 023530 | 155,300 KRW | 81,725 KRW | -47% |
| Lojas Renner S.A LREN3 | R$14.10 | R$33.36 | +137% |
| La Comer, S.A. LACOMERUBC | 34.37 MXN | 51.49 MXN | +50% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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