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Mystate Ltd (MYS) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mystate Ltd stock A$3.18, price A$4.99, that is 36.3% below the price, quality 30 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services AU · ISIN AU000000MYS0

ML Mystate Ltd logo Broad data Nov 6, 2026

Mystate Ltd

MYS · AU
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 36% below what the stock costs today.

Highly profitable · 22.3% net margin (TTM)
4.9% dividend yield · Sustainable
Broad data
Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +18%, profit +40%.
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +33.1 %/yr in AUD)
Moderate moat 62/100 · thin data
Fair value A$3.18 · Strongly overvalued (−36.3%)
Quality 30/100
Trails peers (3/14)
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$5.09 A$2.53 Fair Value A$3.18 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$2.53 – A$5.09 · fair‑value band A$2.92 – A$3.98 · the A$4.99 price screens above the A$3.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

MyState Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides banking, trustee, equipment finance, and managed fund products and services in Australia. It operates in three segments: MyState Bank, Auswide Bank, and Wealth Management Division.

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The company offers savings accounts and fixed term deposits; home loans, personal, overdraft, line of credit, and commercial products; and insurance products.

It also provides easing and commercial hire purchase; and wealth management services comprising managed fund investments, and portfolio administration and advisory services.

In addition, the company offers banking services, including transactional and internet banking, insurance and other alliances, investments, personal and business lending, and business banking and agribusiness; and trustee services, such as estate planning, estate and trust administration, power of attorney, corporate and custodial trustee.

The company was incorporated in 2008 and is based in Hobart, Australia.

Stock analysis

Mystate Ltd (MYS) currently trades at A$4.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.18, 36% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$4.57 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the A$4.99 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$2.51, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: A$2.92 (bear) to A$3.98 (bull), the price of A$4.99 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Mystate Ltd reported revenue of A$797M in FY2026 versus A$190M in FY2022, a compound +43.2%/yr. Reported net income was A$56.2M in FY2026, compounding +15.1%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap A$1.0B (≈ $687M) Small · P/E ratio 17.2 · P/S ratio 3.97 · EPS (TTM) A$0.2900 · Dividend yield 4.9% · Net margin 22.3% · Return on equity 7.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −36%, MYS screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$2.92 Fair Value A$3.18 Bull A$3.98
Price A$4.99 · Downside -36.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0162 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income A$3.55 A$3.74 A$4.10 76
Gordon GGM A$1.65 A$3.19 A$4.68 67
DDM Multi-Stage A$1.65 A$2.81 A$3.38 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM A$1.65 A$3.19 A$4.68 67
DDM Multi-Stage A$1.65 A$2.81 A$3.38 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple A$3.20 A$4.27 A$5.34 63
P/B Multiple A$3.65 A$4.87 A$6.09 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$1.87 A$2.51 A$3.74 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income A$3.55 A$3.74 A$4.10 76

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 30/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 20
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 44
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 66
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 5
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 36
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 85
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 49
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 70
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +20.6% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+2.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2.8% vs −1.9%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.29% → 10%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)

MYS screens overvalued: fair value 36% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 998 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −36.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 7.5% · Below median
Return on assets 0.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 22.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 34.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 17.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 4.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.19× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 17.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.32× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 3.97× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 12.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 10.5× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)89 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)30 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)98 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs MYS
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs MYS
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs MYS
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs MYS
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,019 ₹736.65 −28% vs MYS
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs MYS
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.40 $5.90 −37% vs MYS
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs MYS
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs MYS
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs MYS

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mystate Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MYS

Frequently asked questions

Is Mystate Ltd (MYS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$3.18 versus a price of A$4.99, about 36% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MYS?
Our model-based fair value for Mystate Ltd is A$3.18 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$4.99.
What is the quality score of MYS?
Mystate Ltd has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mystate Ltd (MYS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$3.18 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$2.92, optimistic scenario A$3.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mystate Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$3.18, about 36% lower versus a price of A$4.99 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$2.92, optimistic scenario A$3.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Mystate Ltd pay a dividend?
Mystate Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 4.91% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Mystate Ltd (MYS) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Mystate Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.245 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 28, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2009. The payout ratio is 84.5% of earnings. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What is the intrinsic value of Mystate Ltd (MYS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mystate Ltd it is A$3.18 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of A$4.99. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Mystate Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, MYS trades above its calculated fair value: price A$4.99, fair value A$3.18, a gap of about −36% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MYS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$4.99); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$3.18). For Mystate Ltd the two are A$1.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mystate Ltd worth?
The market values Mystate Ltd at about A$1.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is A$4.99; our models calculate a fair value of A$3.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MYS?
Our models span a range for Mystate Ltd: cautious scenario A$2.92, base A$3.18, optimistic A$3.98 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price A$4.99). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MYS?
Mystate Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.2 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$3.18 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 13.7. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 4.0, EV/EBITDA 10.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mystate Ltd (MYS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mystate Ltd (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 7.5%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MYS from its 52-week high?
Mystate Ltd trades at A$4.99, about 2% below its 52-week high of A$5.09 and 19% above the low of A$4.18 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$3.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mystate Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mystate Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price A$4.99, calculated fair value A$3.18 (−36%), Quality Score 30/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MYS calculated?
We run Mystate Ltd through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$3.18 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Mystate Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mystate Ltd (MYS)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was A$4.99. Our model-based fair value is A$3.18, about 36% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mystate Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$3.98). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Mystate Ltd (MYS) come from?
Earnings per share at Mystate Ltd grew −3.4 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.6 %, EBIT margin −10.4 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Mystate Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Mystate Ltd (MYS)?
The market capitalisation of Mystate Ltd is A$1.0B (≈ $687M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mystate Ltd (MYS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mystate Ltd is 3.97 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mystate Ltd (MYS)?
Earnings per share at Mystate Ltd are A$0.2900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mystate Ltd (MYS)?
The dividend yield of Mystate Ltd is 4.9% (payout 84.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mystate Ltd (MYS)?
The net margin of Mystate Ltd is 22.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mystate Ltd (MYS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mystate Ltd is 7.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mystate Ltd (MYS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mystate Ltd is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mystate Ltd (MYS)?
The operating margin of Mystate Ltd is 34.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mystate Ltd (MYS)?
Revenue at Mystate Ltd is growing +17.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mystate Ltd (MYS)?
Earnings per share at Mystate Ltd are growing +39.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Mystate Ltd (MYS) generate?
The free cash flow of Mystate Ltd is A$81.5M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Mystate Ltd (MYS) carry?
The net debt of Mystate Ltd is A$3.5B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 43.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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