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Mystate Ltd (MYS) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Mystate Ltd A$2.44, price A$4.91, upside -50.3%, quality 21 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · AU · ISIN AU000000MYS0

ML Some data Sep 23, 2026

Mystate Ltd

MYS · AU

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value A$2.44 · Strongly overvalued (−50%)
!Quality 21/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +33.2 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 20.2% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
·4.68% dividend yield
!Trails peers (4/13)
!Moderate moat 61/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$5.09 A$2.53 Fair Value A$2.44 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$2.53 – A$5.09 · fair‑value band A$1.83 – A$3.05 · the A$4.91 price screens above the A$2.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

MyState Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides banking, trustee, equipment finance, and managed fund products and services in Australia. It operates in three segments: MyState Bank, Auswide Bank, and Wealth Management Division.

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MyState Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides banking, trustee, equipment finance, and managed fund products and services in Australia. It operates in three segments: MyState Bank, Auswide Bank, and Wealth Management Division. The company offers savings accounts and fixed term deposits; home loans, personal, overdraft, line of credit, and commercial products; and insurance products. It also provides easing and commercial hire purchase; and wealth management services comprising managed fund investments, and portfolio administration and advisory services. In addition, the company offers banking services, including transactional and internet banking, insurance and other alliances, investments, personal and business lending, and business banking and agribusiness; and trustee services, such as estate planning, estate and trust administration, power of attorney, corporate and custodial trustee. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is based in Hobart, Australia.

Stock analysis

Mystate Ltd (MYS) currently trades at A$4.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$2.44, implying the stock looks roughly 101.2% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of A$3.04 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the A$4.91 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at A$2.71, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: A$1.83 (bear) to A$3.05 (bull), the price of A$4.91 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 21/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Mystate Ltd reported revenue of A$186M in FY2025 versus A$191M in FY2021, a compound −0.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$35.6M in FY2025, compounding −0.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap A$808M (≈ $569M) · P/E ratio 19.6 · P/S ratio 3.75 · EPS (TTM) A$0.2500 · Dividend yield 4.7% · Net margin 19.1% · Return on equity 7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −50%, MYS screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$1.83 Fair Value A$2.44 Bull A$3.05
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0200 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income A$3.10 A$3.04 A$2.67 76
P/E Multiple A$2.03 A$2.71 A$3.39 63
P/B Multiple A$2.66 A$3.55 A$4.43 55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple A$2.03 A$2.71 A$3.39 63
P/B Multiple A$2.66 A$3.55 A$4.43 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$2.16 A$2.89 A$4.32 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income A$3.10 A$3.04 A$2.67 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 21/100

Of which business quality 18 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68

Profitability 26
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 7
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 34
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 83
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 56
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 70
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.2%
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.3%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−3.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−9% vs −4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 34%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

MYS screens 101% overvalued. Compare with DBS Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 22 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −50% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Below median
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 20% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 33% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 60% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 4.42× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 19.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B 0.77× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 2.45× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 57.7× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)31 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)94 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 77.80 SGD 40.48 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968 HK$51.65 HK$64.29 +24%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.73 €4.04 −40%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹738.60 ₹418.52 −43%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €101.30 €105.99 +5%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €83.28 €77.62 −7%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $10.87 $6.75 −38%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,340 ₹636.31 −53%
The PNC Financial Services Group PNC $227.96 $159.52 −30%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.14 SGD 19.80 SGD −38%

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Mystate Ltd · Fair Value
A$2.44 −101%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mystate Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MYS

Frequently asked questions

Is Mystate Ltd (MYS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$2.44 versus a price of A$4.91, about −50% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MYS?
Our model-based fair value for Mystate Ltd is A$2.44 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$4.91.
What is the quality score of MYS?
Mystate Ltd has a Quality Score of 21/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mystate Ltd (MYS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$2.44 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$1.83, optimistic scenario A$3.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mystate Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$2.44, about −50% upside versus a price of A$4.91 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$1.83, optimistic scenario A$3.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mystate Ltd (MYS)?
Mystate Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$233M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Mystate Ltd pay a dividend?
Mystate Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.68% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Mystate Ltd (MYS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mystate Ltd it is A$2.44 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$4.91. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mystate Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MYS trades above its calculated fair value: price A$4.91, fair value A$2.44, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MYS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$4.91); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$2.44). For Mystate Ltd the two are A$2.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mystate Ltd worth?
The market values Mystate Ltd at about A$808M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$4.91; our models calculate a fair value of A$2.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MYS?
Our models span a range for Mystate Ltd: cautious scenario A$1.83, base A$2.44, optimistic A$3.05 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$4.91). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MYS?
Mystate Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$2.44 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 57.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mystate Ltd (MYS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mystate Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 7.7%, debt of 4.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 21/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MYS from its 52-week high?
Mystate Ltd trades at A$4.91, about 4% below its 52-week high of A$5.09 and 23% above the low of A$4.00 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$2.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mystate Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mystate Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$4.91, calculated fair value A$2.44 (−50%), Quality Score 21/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MYS calculated?
We run Mystate Ltd through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$2.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Mystate Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mystate Ltd (MYS)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$4.91. Our model-based fair value is A$2.44, about −50% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mystate Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$3.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (21/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Mystate Ltd (MYS) come from?
Earnings per share at Mystate Ltd grew −3.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.6 %, EBIT margin −8.3 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Mystate Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Mystate Ltd (MYS)?
The market capitalisation of Mystate Ltd is A$808M (≈ $569M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mystate Ltd (MYS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mystate Ltd is 3.75 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mystate Ltd (MYS)?
Earnings per share at Mystate Ltd are A$0.2500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mystate Ltd (MYS)?
The dividend yield of Mystate Ltd is 4.7% (payout 92.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mystate Ltd (MYS)?
The net margin of Mystate Ltd is 19.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mystate Ltd (MYS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mystate Ltd is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mystate Ltd (MYS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mystate Ltd is 0.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mystate Ltd (MYS)?
The operating margin of Mystate Ltd is 33.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mystate Ltd (MYS)?
Revenue at Mystate Ltd is growing +59.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mystate Ltd (MYS)?
Earnings per share at Mystate Ltd are growing +11.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Mystate Ltd (MYS) generate?
The free cash flow of Mystate Ltd is −A$256M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Mystate Ltd (MYS) carry?
The net debt of Mystate Ltd is A$1.7B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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