Mazda Motor Corporation (MZDAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Mazda Motor Corporation $11.36, price $7.10, upside +60.0%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.52 – $14.65 · fair‑value band $8.53 – $14.20 · the $7.10 price screens below the $11.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Mazda Motor Corporation engages in the manufacture and sale of passenger cars and commercial vehicles in Japan, North America, Europe, and internationally. The company was formerly known as Toyo Kogyo Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Mazda Motor Corporation in May 1984.
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Mazda Motor Corporation engages in the manufacture and sale of passenger cars and commercial vehicles in Japan, North America, Europe, and internationally. The company was formerly known as Toyo Kogyo Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Mazda Motor Corporation in May 1984. Mazda Motor Corporation was incorporated in 1920 and is headquartered in Hiroshima, Japan.
Stock analysis
Mazda Motor Corporation (MZDAF) currently trades at $7.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.36, implying the stock looks roughly 37.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $14.98 per share, and 9 of the 14 models we run sit above the $7.10 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $5.45, and 5 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $8.53 (bear) to $14.20 (bull), the price of $7.10 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Mazda Motor Corporation reported revenue of ¥4.9T in FY2026 versus ¥2.9T in FY2022, a compound +14.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥35.3B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $4.5B · P/E ratio 20.3 · P/S ratio 0.14 · EPS (TTM) $0.3500 · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin 0.7% · Return on equity 1.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 60%, MZDAF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $8.53Fair Value $11.36Bull $14.20
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.37/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.8% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+3.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1.4% vs −13.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 1%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Mazda Motor Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 106 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Below median
Fair Value upside+60.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1.9% · Below median
Return on assets0.8% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0.7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)5.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.28× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mazda Motor Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MZDAF
Frequently asked questions
Is Mazda Motor Corporation (MZDAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.36 versus a price of $7.10, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MZDAF?
Our model-based fair value for Mazda Motor Corporation is $11.36 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.10.
What is the quality score of MZDAF?
Mazda Motor Corporation has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mazda Motor Corporation (MZDAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.36 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.53, optimistic scenario $14.20. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mazda Motor Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.36, about +60% upside versus a price of $7.10 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $8.53, optimistic scenario $14.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mazda Motor Corporation (MZDAF)?
Mazda Motor Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥4.9T (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Mazda Motor Corporation pay a dividend?
Mazda Motor Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.98% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Mazda Motor Corporation (MZDAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mazda Motor Corporation it is $11.36 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $7.10. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mazda Motor Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, MZDAF trades below its calculated fair value: price $7.10, fair value $11.36, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MZDAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.36). For Mazda Motor Corporation the two are $4.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mazda Motor Corporation worth?
The market values Mazda Motor Corporation at about $4.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $7.10; our models calculate a fair value of $11.36 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MZDAF?
Our models span a range for Mazda Motor Corporation: cautious scenario $8.53, base $11.36, optimistic $14.20 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $7.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MZDAF?
Mazda Motor Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.3 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.36 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 0.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mazda Motor Corporation (MZDAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mazda Motor Corporation (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 1.9%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MZDAF from its 52-week high?
Mazda Motor Corporation trades at $7.10, about 19% below its 52-week high of $8.78 and 18% above the low of $6.04 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.36 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mazda Motor Corporation?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, General Motors Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mazda Motor Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $7.10, calculated fair value $11.36 (+60%), Quality Score 41/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MZDAF calculated?
We run Mazda Motor Corporation through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.36, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Mazda Motor Corporation currently trades 60 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mazda Motor Corporation (MZDAF)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $7.10. Our model-based fair value is $11.36, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mazda Motor Corporation right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($8.53). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Where does the earnings growth of Mazda Motor Corporation (MZDAF) come from?
Earnings per share at Mazda Motor Corporation grew −1.5 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.2 %, EBIT margin −6.0 %, tax rate −1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mazda Motor Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Mazda Motor Corporation (MZDAF)?
The market capitalisation of Mazda Motor Corporation is $4.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mazda Motor Corporation (MZDAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mazda Motor Corporation is 0.14 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mazda Motor Corporation (MZDAF)?
Earnings per share at Mazda Motor Corporation are $0.3500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mazda Motor Corporation (MZDAF)?
The dividend yield of Mazda Motor Corporation is 5.0% (payout 101%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mazda Motor Corporation (MZDAF)?
The net margin of Mazda Motor Corporation is 0.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mazda Motor Corporation (MZDAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mazda Motor Corporation is 1.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mazda Motor Corporation (MZDAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mazda Motor Corporation is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mazda Motor Corporation (MZDAF)?
The operating margin of Mazda Motor Corporation is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mazda Motor Corporation (MZDAF)?
Revenue at Mazda Motor Corporation is growing +6.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mazda Motor Corporation (MZDAF)?
Earnings per share at Mazda Motor Corporation are growing +111% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Mazda Motor Corporation (MZDAF) generate?
The free cash flow of Mazda Motor Corporation is −¥89.7B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Mazda Motor Corporation (MZDAF) hold?
Mazda Motor Corporation holds more cash than debt, ¥216B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Sep 27, 2026