Nathans Famous Inc (NATH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Nathans Famous Inc $79.74, price $94.40, upside -15.5%, quality 75 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $41.94 – $114.06 · fair‑value band $49.41 – $106.91 · the $94.40 price screens above the $79.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Nathan's Famous, Inc., along with its subsidiaries, operates in the foodservice industry both in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Branded Product Program; Product licensing; and Restaurant operations.
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Nathan's Famous, Inc., along with its subsidiaries, operates in the foodservice industry both in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Branded Product Program; Product licensing; and Restaurant operations. The company owns and franchises restaurants under the Nathan's Famous brand name and sells products bearing the Nathan's Famous trademarks through various distribution channels. It also has license agreements for the manufacture, distribution, marketing, and sale of Nathan's Famous branded beef hot dogs, crinkle-cut french fries, and sausages in refrigerated consumer packages, which are resold through retail channels such as supermarkets, grocery stores, mass merchandisers, and club stores. In addition, the company has license agreements to manufacture Nathan's Famous branded hot dog and sausage products in bulk for use in the foodservice industry, supply Nathan's Famous natural casing and skinless hot dogs in bulk for use in the Nathan's Famous restaurant system, manufacture proprietary spices, produce and distribute pickles, and produce and sell french fries and onion rings for retail sale. Further, the company produces and sells miniature bagel dogs, franks-in-a-blanket, mozzarella sticks, corn dog nuggets, other hors d'oeuvres, and bottled mustard through club stores, supermarkets, and other retail food stores. Additionally, it sells Nathan's products directly to foodservice operators or various foodservice distributors and provides Arthur Treacher's branded fish fillets. Nathan's Famous, Inc. was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Jericho, New York.
Stock analysis
Nathans Famous Inc (NATH) currently trades at $94.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $79.74, implying the stock looks roughly 18.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $96.53 per share, and 5 of the 23 models we run sit above the $94.40 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $34.91, and 18 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $49.41 (bear) to $106.91 (bull), the price of $94.40 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Nathans Famous Inc reported revenue of $162M in FY2026 versus $115M in FY2022, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was $20.0M in FY2026, compounding +10.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $389M · P/E ratio 19.5 · P/S ratio 2.40 · EPS (TTM) $4.85 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 12.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 57.5% · Operating margin 22.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −16%, NATH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $49.41Fair Value $79.74Bull $106.91
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.39 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.9% a year
Revenue growth 33 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9% vs 11%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.34% → 19%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.9% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 226 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score75 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−16% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets39% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)12% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)23% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth14% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)19.5× · Pricier than median
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)2.40× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF21.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA12.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.56× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)13· sector 39
FUTURE (revenue growth)70· sector 18
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 21
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)42· sector 70
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nathans Famous Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NATH
Frequently asked questions
Is Nathans Famous Inc (NATH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $79.74 versus a price of $94.40, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NATH?
Our model-based fair value for Nathans Famous Inc is $79.74 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $94.40.
What is the quality score of NATH?
Nathans Famous Inc has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nathans Famous Inc (NATH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $79.74 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $49.41, optimistic scenario $106.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nathans Famous Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $79.74, about −16% upside versus a price of $94.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $49.41, optimistic scenario $106.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nathans Famous Inc (NATH)?
Nathans Famous Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $162M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Nathans Famous Inc pay a dividend?
Nathans Famous Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.12% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nathans Famous Inc (NATH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nathans Famous Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +12.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NATH use?
Our models discount Nathans Famous Inc at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.27, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nathans Famous Inc that is +12.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nathans Famous Inc (NATH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nathans Famous Inc grew +16.4 % a year. The price currently implies +12.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nathans Famous Inc (NATH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nathans Famous Inc (+12.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nathans Famous Inc (NATH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.59 %: that much free cash flow Nathans Famous Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nathans Famous Inc (NATH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nathans Famous Inc it is $79.74 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $94.40. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nathans Famous Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NATH trades above its calculated fair value: price $94.40, fair value $79.74, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NATH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($94.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($79.74). For Nathans Famous Inc the two are $14.66 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nathans Famous Inc worth?
The market values Nathans Famous Inc at about $389M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $94.40; our models calculate a fair value of $79.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NATH?
Our models span a range for Nathans Famous Inc: cautious scenario $49.41, base $79.74, optimistic $106.91 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $94.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NATH?
Nathans Famous Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $79.74 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 12.0.
What is the PEG ratio of NATH?
The PEG ratio of Nathans Famous Inc is 1.56 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nathans Famous Inc (NATH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nathans Famous Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NATH from its 52-week high?
Nathans Famous Inc trades at $94.40, about 15% below its 52-week high of $111.37 and 6% above the low of $89.42 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $79.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nathans Famous Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nathans Famous Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $94.40, calculated fair value $79.74 (−16%), Quality Score 75/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NATH calculated?
We run Nathans Famous Inc through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $79.74, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Nathans Famous Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nathans Famous Inc (NATH)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $94.40. Our model-based fair value is $79.74, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nathans Famous Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 75/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. A fairly wide model range ($49.41 to $106.91) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Nathans Famous Inc (NATH) come from?
Earnings per share at Nathans Famous Inc grew +11.7 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.6 %, EBIT margin −0.9 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Nathans Famous Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Nathans Famous Inc (NATH)?
The market capitalisation of Nathans Famous Inc is $389M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nathans Famous Inc (NATH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nathans Famous Inc is 2.40 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nathans Famous Inc (NATH)?
Earnings per share at Nathans Famous Inc are $4.85 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nathans Famous Inc (NATH)?
The dividend yield of Nathans Famous Inc is 2.1% (payout 41.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nathans Famous Inc (NATH)?
The net margin of Nathans Famous Inc is 12.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nathans Famous Inc (NATH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nathans Famous Inc is 57.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nathans Famous Inc (NATH)?
The operating margin of Nathans Famous Inc is 22.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nathans Famous Inc (NATH)?
Revenue at Nathans Famous Inc is growing +13.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nathans Famous Inc (NATH)?
Earnings per share at Nathans Famous Inc are growing −34.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nathans Famous Inc (NATH) carry?
The net debt of Nathans Famous Inc is $27.7M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 23, 2026