Nathan's Famous, Inc (NATH) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $416M
Nathan's Famous, Inc
NATH · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price −2.8% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 21% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 75/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- A fairly wide model range ($46.85 to $106.91) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $41.94 – $114.06 · fair‑value band $46.85 – $106.91 · the $98.01 price screens above the $77.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Nathan's Famous, Inc (NATH) currently trades at $98.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $77.17, implying the stock looks roughly 21.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Nathan's Famous, Inc generated revenue of $162M at a net margin of 12.4%. Revenue grew 13.9% year over year. Net debt stands at $27.7M. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 21.0. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $46.85 (bear case) to $106.91 (bull case); at $98.01, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -21%, NATH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($96.53) versus Earnings-Based ($34.91). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Nathan's Famous, Inc., along with its subsidiaries, operates in the foodservice industry both in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Branded Product Program; Product licensing; and Restaurant operations.
Full company description
Nathan's Famous, Inc., along with its subsidiaries, operates in the foodservice industry both in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Branded Product Program; Product licensing; and Restaurant operations. The company owns and franchises restaurants under the Nathan's Famous brand name and sells products bearing the Nathan's Famous trademarks through various distribution channels. It also has license agreements for the manufacture, distribution, marketing, and sale of Nathan's Famous branded beef hot dogs, crinkle-cut french fries, and sausages in refrigerated consumer packages, which are resold through retail channels such as supermarkets, grocery stores, mass merchandisers, and club stores. In addition, the company has license agreements to manufacture Nathan's Famous branded hot dog and sausage products in bulk for use in the foodservice industry, supply Nathan's Famous natural casing and skinless hot dogs in bulk for use in the Nathan's Famous restaurant system, manufacture proprietary spices, produce and distribute pickles, and produce and sell french fries and onion rings for retail sale. Further, the company produces and sells miniature bagel dogs, franks-in-a-blanket, mozzarella sticks, corn dog nuggets, other hors d'oeuvres, and bottled mustard through club stores, supermarkets, and other retail food stores. Additionally, it sells Nathan's products directly to foodservice operators or various foodservice distributors and provides Arthur Treacher's branded fish fillets. Nathan's Famous, Inc. was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Jericho, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Nathan's Famous, Inc reported revenue of $162M in FY2026 versus $115M in FY2022, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was $20.0M in FY2026, compounding +10.2%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +4.7 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.9 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
NATH screens 21% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Peer Group
Restaurants · 227 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $105.49 | $35.83 | -66% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $34.63 | $18.43 | -47% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $163.54 | $59.66 | -64% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.19 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $195.74 | $173.68 | -11% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $43.90 | $55.10 | +26% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $197.03 | $104.89 | -47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $68.36 | $12.80 | -81% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $322.18 | $231.96 | -28% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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