Nelly Group (NELLY) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · SE · Market cap 1.1B SEK
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from kr 52.10 to kr 52.17 (+0.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −4.0% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 52% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 43.79). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (kr 43.79 to kr 109.42) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 4.15 – kr 134.00 · fair‑value band kr 43.79 – kr 109.42 · the kr 34.40 price screens below the kr 52.17 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Nelly Group (NELLY) currently trades at kr 34.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 52.17, implying the stock looks roughly 51.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Nelly Group generated revenue of 1.3B SEK at a net margin of 12.5%. Revenue declined 1.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 47.3%. Net debt stands at 33.3M SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 43.79 (bear case) to kr 109.42 (bull case); at kr 34.40, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 75% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at 52%, NELLY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (kr 93.06) versus Asset-Based (kr 9.05). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 9
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Nelly Group AB (publ) operates as a fashion company in Sweden, rest of Nordics, and internationally. The company offers clothes, accessories, beauty products, and sportswear, lingerie and swimwear for women; and clothes, shoes, and accessories for men under the Nelly brand.
Full company description
Nelly Group AB (publ) operates as a fashion company in Sweden, rest of Nordics, and internationally. The company offers clothes, accessories, beauty products, and sportswear, lingerie and swimwear for women; and clothes, shoes, and accessories for men under the Nelly brand. It sells and markets its products through physical store, and online through Nelly.com and NLYman.com. The company was formerly known as Qliro Group AB (publ) and changed its name to Nelly Group AB (publ) in November 2020. Nelly Group AB (publ) was founded in 1936 and is based in Borås, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Nelly Group reported revenue of kr 1.3B in FY2025 versus kr 1.4B in FY2021, a compound −3.0%/yr. Reported net income was kr 169M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Apparel Retail · 106 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Apparel Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A 1ITX | €58.44 | €23.29 | -60% |
| The TJX Companies, Inc TJX | $154.46 | $84.95 | -45% |
| Fast Retailing Co 6288 | HK$40.00 | HK$15.37 | -62% |
| Ross Stores, Inc ROST | $233.46 | $118.41 | -49% |
| Burlington Stores, Inc BURL | $327.72 | $147.08 | -55% |
| Trent Limited TRENT | ₹2,903 | ₹709.49 | -76% |
| lululemon athletica inc., LULU | $116.33 | $299.63 | +158% |
| Aritzia Inc ATZ | C$160.05 | C$87.26 | -45% |
| The Gap, Inc GAP | $20.35 | $37.12 | +82% |
| Urban Outfitters, Inc URBN | $72.95 | $92.88 | +27% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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