Nelly Group AB (NELLY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Nelly Group AB stock SEK 54.46, price SEK 34.00, upside +60.2%, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 4.15 – kr 134.00 · fair‑value band kr 43.04 – kr 69.77 · the kr 34.00 price screens below the kr 54.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Nelly Group AB (publ) operates as a fashion company in Sweden, rest of Nordics, and internationally. The company offers clothes, accessories, beauty products, and sportswear, lingerie and swimwear for women; and clothes, shoes, and accessories for men under the Nelly brand.
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It sells and markets its products through physical store, and online through Nelly.com and NLYman.com. The company was formerly known as Qliro Group AB (publ) and changed its name to Nelly Group AB (publ) in November 2020. Nelly Group AB (publ) was founded in 1936 and is based in Borås, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Nelly Group AB (NELLY) currently trades at kr 34.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 54.46, implying the stock looks roughly 38% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of kr 95.58 per share, and 20 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 34.00 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at kr 5.74, and 4 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 43.04 (bear) to kr 69.77 (bull), the price of kr 34.00 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Nelly Group AB reported revenue of 1.3B SEK in FY2025 versus 1.4B SEK in FY2021, a compound −3.0%/yr. Reported net income was 169M SEK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 1.0B SEK (≈ $103M) Micro · P/E ratio 7.4 · P/S ratio 0.80 · EPS (TTM) kr 4.58 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 9.8% · Return on equity 31.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 75% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 60%, NELLY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 43.04Fair Value kr 54.46Bullkr 69.77
Price kr 34.00 · Upside +60.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 3.93 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −13.1% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−3.3% (2020) → 13.2% (2025)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Apparel Retail · 101 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Above median
Fair Value upside+60.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)31.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets17.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)9.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)13.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.3% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)7.4× · Cheapest 25%
P/B2.51× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)0.80× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)9.1× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nelly Group AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NELLY
Frequently asked questions
Is Nelly Group AB (NELLY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 54.46 versus a price of kr 34.00, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NELLY?
Our model-based fair value for Nelly Group AB is kr 54.46 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 34.00.
What is the quality score of NELLY?
Nelly Group AB has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nelly Group AB (NELLY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 54.46 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 43.04, optimistic scenario kr 69.77. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nelly Group AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 54.46, about +60% upside versus a price of kr 34.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 43.04, optimistic scenario kr 69.77. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nelly Group AB (NELLY)?
Nelly Group AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.3B SEK (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Nelly Group AB pay a dividend?
Nelly Group AB currently shows a dividend yield of 2.34% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Nelly Group AB (NELLY)?
Nelly Group AB has a dividend yield of 2.3%.
What growth is priced into Nelly Group AB (NELLY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nelly Group AB would have to grow free cash flow by +23.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.0 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NELLY use?
Our models discount Nelly Group AB at 14.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.59, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nelly Group AB that is +23.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (14.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nelly Group AB (NELLY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nelly Group AB grew -2.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +23.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nelly Group AB (NELLY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nelly Group AB (+23.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nelly Group AB (NELLY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.94 %: that much free cash flow Nelly Group AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nelly Group AB (NELLY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nelly Group AB it is kr 54.46 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of kr 34.00. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Nelly Group AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, NELLY trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 34.00, fair value kr 54.46, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NELLY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 34.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 54.46). For Nelly Group AB the two are kr 20.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nelly Group AB worth?
The market values Nelly Group AB at about 1.0B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is kr 34.00; our models calculate a fair value of kr 54.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NELLY?
Our models span a range for Nelly Group AB: cautious scenario kr 43.04, base kr 54.46, optimistic kr 69.77 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price kr 34.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NELLY?
Nelly Group AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.4 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 54.46 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 2.5, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 5.5.
What is the PEG ratio of NELLY?
The PEG ratio of Nelly Group AB is 0.58 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nelly Group AB (NELLY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nelly Group AB (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 31.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NELLY from its 52-week high?
Nelly Group AB trades at kr 34.00, about 75% below its 52-week high of kr 134.00 and 16% above the low of kr 29.38 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 54.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nelly Group AB?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A, The TJX Companies, Inc, Fast Retailing Co, Ross Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nelly Group AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price kr 34.00, calculated fair value kr 54.46 (+60%), Quality Score 64/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NELLY calculated?
We run Nelly Group AB through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of kr 54.46 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Nelly Group AB currently trades 38% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nelly Group AB (NELLY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was kr 34.00. Our model-based fair value is kr 54.46, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nelly Group AB right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 43.04). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Nelly Group AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Nelly Group AB (NELLY)?
The market capitalisation of Nelly Group AB is 1.0B SEK (≈ $103M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nelly Group AB (NELLY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nelly Group AB is 0.80 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nelly Group AB (NELLY)?
Earnings per share at Nelly Group AB are kr 4.58 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nelly Group AB (NELLY)?
The dividend yield of Nelly Group AB is 2.3% (payout 17.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nelly Group AB (NELLY)?
The net margin of Nelly Group AB is 9.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nelly Group AB (NELLY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nelly Group AB is 31.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nelly Group AB (NELLY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nelly Group AB is 3.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nelly Group AB (NELLY)?
The operating margin of Nelly Group AB is 13.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nelly Group AB (NELLY)?
Revenue at Nelly Group AB is growing +10.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nelly Group AB (NELLY)?
Earnings per share at Nelly Group AB are growing −26.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nelly Group AB (NELLY) carry?
The net debt of Nelly Group AB is 33.3M SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026