Nemak S. A. B. de C. V (NEMAKA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Nemak S. A. B. de C. V MXN 4.44, price MXN 3.04, upside +46.1%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Nemak, S. A. B. de C. V., together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells aluminum components for e-mobility, structure and chassis, and ICE powertrain applications to the automotive industry in North America, Europe, and internationally.
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Nemak, S. A. B. de C. V., together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells aluminum components for e-mobility, structure and chassis, and ICE powertrain applications to the automotive industry in North America, Europe, and internationally. The company provides ICE powertrain components, such as cylinder heads, engine blocks, oil pans, and transmission cases; and vehicle structures and chassis products, including lift gates, longitudinal members, support brackets, A-pillars, cradles, e-brackets, shock towers, and subframes. It also offers e-mobility components comprising e-motor, and battery housings for hybrid and electric vehicles. The company was formerly known as Tenedora Nemak, S. A. de C. V. and changed its name to Nemak, S. A. B. de C. V. in June 2015. The company was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in García, Mexico.
Stock analysis
Nemak S. A. B. de C. V (NEMAKA) currently trades at 3.04 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4.44 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 31.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 2.55 MXN per share, and 1 of the 13 models we run sit above the 3.04 MXN price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 0.7200 MXN, and 12 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 2.64 MXN (bear) to 8.44 MXN (bull), the price of 3.04 MXN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Nemak S. A. B. de C. V reported revenue of $4.9B in FY2025 versus $185M in FY2021, a compound +127.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$116M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 8.7B MXN (≈ $485M) · P/S ratio 1.77 · EPS (TTM) −0.4800 MXN · Net margin −2.4% · Return on equity −4.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.3% · Operating margin 1.3% · Revenue (TTM) 5.1B MXN.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at 46%, NEMAKA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 2.64 MXNFair Value 4.44 MXNBull 8.44 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+174.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+96.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +35.5% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.0% (2020) → 3.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Mexico: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 681 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+46.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1.9% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−1.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)1.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth15.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.04× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nemak S. A. B. de C. V Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NEMAKA
Frequently asked questions
Is Nemak S. A. B. de C. V (NEMAKA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 4.44 MXN versus a price of 3.04 MXN, about +46% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NEMAKA?
Our model-based fair value for Nemak S. A. B. de C. V is 4.44 MXN (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 3.04 MXN.
What is the quality score of NEMAKA?
Nemak S. A. B. de C. V has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nemak S. A. B. de C. V (NEMAKA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 4.44 MXN (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2.64 MXN, optimistic scenario 8.44 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nemak S. A. B. de C. V stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 4.44 MXN, about +46% upside versus a price of 3.04 MXN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 2.64 MXN, optimistic scenario 8.44 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nemak S. A. B. de C. V (NEMAKA)?
Nemak S. A. B. de C. V reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.1B MXN (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nemak S. A. B. de C. V (NEMAKA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nemak S. A. B. de C. V would have to grow free cash flow by +22.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +96.7 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NEMAKA use?
Our models discount Nemak S. A. B. de C. V at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.20, country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nemak S. A. B. de C. V that is +22.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nemak S. A. B. de C. V (NEMAKA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nemak S. A. B. de C. V grew +96.7 % a year. The price currently implies +22.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nemak S. A. B. de C. V (NEMAKA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nemak S. A. B. de C. V (+22.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nemak S. A. B. de C. V (NEMAKA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.05 %: that much free cash flow Nemak S. A. B. de C. V produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nemak S. A. B. de C. V (NEMAKA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nemak S. A. B. de C. V it is 4.44 MXN per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 3.04 MXN. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nemak S. A. B. de C. V stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, NEMAKA trades below its calculated fair value: price 3.04 MXN, fair value 4.44 MXN, a gap of about +46% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NEMAKA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (3.04 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (4.44 MXN). For Nemak S. A. B. de C. V the two are 1.40 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nemak S. A. B. de C. V worth?
The market values Nemak S. A. B. de C. V at about 8.7B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 3.04 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 4.44 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NEMAKA?
Our models span a range for Nemak S. A. B. de C. V: cautious scenario 2.64 MXN, base 4.44 MXN, optimistic 8.44 MXN per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 3.04 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of NEMAKA?
The PEG ratio of Nemak S. A. B. de C. V is 0.74 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nemak S. A. B. de C. V (NEMAKA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nemak S. A. B. de C. V (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −4.7%, debt of 1.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NEMAKA from its 52-week high?
Nemak S. A. B. de C. V trades at 3.04 MXN, about 30% below its 52-week high of 4.32 MXN and 12% above the low of 2.72 MXN (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 4.44 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nemak S. A. B. de C. V?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nemak S. A. B. de C. V stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 3.04 MXN, calculated fair value 4.44 MXN (+46%), Quality Score 41/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NEMAKA calculated?
We run Nemak S. A. B. de C. V through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 4.44 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Nemak S. A. B. de C. V currently trades 46 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nemak S. A. B. de C. V (NEMAKA)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was 3.04 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 4.44 MXN, about +46% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nemak S. A. B. de C. V right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide (2.64 MXN to 8.44 MXN). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Nemak S. A. B. de C. V (NEMAKA) come from?
Earnings per share at Nemak S. A. B. de C. V grew −2.8 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +28.3 %, EBIT margin −11.0 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −14.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Nemak S. A. B. de C. V
How large is the market capitalisation of Nemak S. A. B. de C. V (NEMAKA)?
The market capitalisation of Nemak S. A. B. de C. V is 8.7B MXN (≈ $485M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nemak S. A. B. de C. V (NEMAKA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nemak S. A. B. de C. V is 1.77 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nemak S. A. B. de C. V (NEMAKA)?
Earnings per share at Nemak S. A. B. de C. V are −0.4800 MXN. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Nemak S. A. B. de C. V (NEMAKA)?
The net margin of Nemak S. A. B. de C. V is −2.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nemak S. A. B. de C. V (NEMAKA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nemak S. A. B. de C. V is −4.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nemak S. A. B. de C. V (NEMAKA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nemak S. A. B. de C. V is 3.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nemak S. A. B. de C. V (NEMAKA)?
The operating margin of Nemak S. A. B. de C. V is 1.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nemak S. A. B. de C. V (NEMAKA)?
Revenue at Nemak S. A. B. de C. V is growing +15.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +175%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nemak S. A. B. de C. V (NEMAKA)?
Earnings per share at Nemak S. A. B. de C. V are growing +372% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nemak S. A. B. de C. V (NEMAKA) carry?
The net debt of Nemak S. A. B. de C. V is 1.3B MXN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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