Nexi S.p.A (NEXI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Nexi S.p.A stock €12.26, price €4.50, upside +172.6%, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 12 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €2.56 – €15.97 · fair‑value band €6.36 – €21.02 · the €4.50 price screens below the €12.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Nexi S.p.A. provides electronic money and payment services to banks, small and medium-sized enterprises, large international corporations, institutions, and public administrations in Italy, Nordics and Baltics, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Poland, Southeast Europe, and internationally.
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The company offers payment processing and acceptance services; configuration, activation, and maintenance of Point of Sales terminals; fraud prevention services; and dispute management services, as well as customer support and value-added services.
It also provides various issuing services, such as issue, supply, and management of private and corporate payment cards; payment tracking and the production of monthly statements, data analysis and price-setting support services, customer service, and dispute management, as well as communication and customer development services; installation and management of Automated Teller Machines; clearing services; and digital banking services for the management of current accounts and payments.
In addition, the company offers applications for invoice management and storage, prepaid card reloading, bill payments, and postal payments. The company was founded in 1939 and is based in Milan, Italy.
Stock analysis
Nexi S.p.A (NEXI) currently trades at €4.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €12.26, implying the stock looks roughly 63% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €13.71 per share, and 10 of the 12 models we run sit above the €4.50 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €1.95, and 2 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €6.36 (bear) to €21.02 (bull), the price of €4.50 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Nexi S.p.A reported revenue of €6.3B in FY2025 versus €3.0B in FY2021, a compound +20.0%/yr. Reported net income was −€3.4B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €5.5B Mid · P/S ratio 0.84 · EPS (TTM) €−2.80 · Dividend yield 6.7% · Net margin −53.0% · Return on equity −38.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin 11.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 24 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at 173%, NEXI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€6.36Fair Value €12.26Bull€21.02
Price €4.50 · Upside +172.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
11.4% (2019) → 10.1% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.9%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−8.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.9% a year for the price and −10.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (12 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Nexi generates substantial excess cash while cutting debt and holding an investment grade rating, yet weak profitability, net losses and negative margins provide little evidence of a durable moat.
Main risk: Next-generation providers offering integrated payments and embedded finance could erode Nexi's market share and force lower prices in merchant solutions, particularly in its core Italian market reliant on bank-led distribution.
Bull case: By partnering on agentic commerce standards with Google Cloud and card networks Nexi could integrate AI-driven payments into its infrastructure and defend or expand its position against disruptors.
Bear case: If agile fintechs and digital channels accelerate the shift away from traditional acquiring Nexi might lose significant merchant volumes and face sustained margin pressure in its largest revenue segment.
Nexi continues to generate substantial excess cash while reducing debt and securing an investment grade rating. Revenue growth however remains modest as merchant contract effects linger. Will the push into agentic commerce through new AI agent payment partnerships deliver meaningful reacceleration in merchant solutions or will near term visibility stay constrained?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 345 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside+172.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−16.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−53.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)11.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)6.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.79× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.78× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nexi S.p.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NEXI
Frequently asked questions
Is Nexi S.p.A (NEXI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €12.26 versus a price of €4.50, about +173% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NEXI?
Our model-based fair value for Nexi S.p.A is €12.26 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €4.50.
What is the quality score of NEXI?
Nexi S.p.A has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nexi S.p.A (NEXI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €12.26 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario €6.36, optimistic scenario €21.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nexi S.p.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €12.26, about +173% upside versus a price of €4.50 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €6.36, optimistic scenario €21.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nexi S.p.A (NEXI)?
Nexi S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €6.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Nexi S.p.A pay a dividend?
Nexi S.p.A currently shows a dividend yield of 6.67% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Nexi S.p.A (NEXI) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Nexi S.p.A pays a dividend of €0.3 per share a year, a dividend yield of 6.7%. The last ex-dividend date was May 18, 2026. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.29 times. Our assessment: Cash covered. The dividend is fully funded by free cash flow. The payout ratio on earnings is not available for this company.
What growth is priced into Nexi S.p.A (NEXI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nexi S.p.A would have to grow free cash flow by -2.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +30.5 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NEXI use?
Our models discount Nexi S.p.A at 12.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.08, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nexi S.p.A that is -2.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nexi S.p.A (NEXI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nexi S.p.A grew +30.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -2.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nexi S.p.A (NEXI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nexi S.p.A (-2.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nexi S.p.A (NEXI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.57 %: that much free cash flow Nexi S.p.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nexi S.p.A (NEXI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nexi S.p.A it is €12.26 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of €4.50. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models in 5 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Nexi S.p.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, NEXI trades below its calculated fair value: price €4.50, fair value €12.26, a gap of about +173% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NEXI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€4.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€12.26). For Nexi S.p.A the two are €7.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nexi S.p.A worth?
The market values Nexi S.p.A at about €5.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is €4.50; our models calculate a fair value of €12.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NEXI?
Our models span a range for Nexi S.p.A: cautious scenario €6.36, base €12.26, optimistic €21.02 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price €4.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of NEXI?
The PEG ratio of Nexi S.p.A is 0.13 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nexi S.p.A (NEXI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nexi S.p.A (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −38.6%, debt of 0.79 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NEXI from its 52-week high?
Nexi S.p.A trades at €4.50, about 4% below its 52-week high of €4.67 and 76% above the low of €2.56 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €12.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nexi S.p.A?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nexi S.p.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price €4.50, calculated fair value €12.26 (+173%), Quality Score 46/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NEXI calculated?
We run Nexi S.p.A through 12 models from 5 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €12.26 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Nexi S.p.A currently trades 63% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nexi S.p.A (NEXI)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €4.50. Our model-based fair value is €12.26, about +173% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nexi S.p.A right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (46/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (€6.36). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (€6.36 to €21.02). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Nexi S.p.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Nexi S.p.A (NEXI)?
The market capitalisation of Nexi S.p.A is €5.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nexi S.p.A (NEXI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nexi S.p.A is 0.84 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nexi S.p.A (NEXI)?
Earnings per share at Nexi S.p.A are €−2.80. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nexi S.p.A (NEXI)?
The dividend yield of Nexi S.p.A is 6.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nexi S.p.A (NEXI)?
The net margin of Nexi S.p.A is −53.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nexi S.p.A (NEXI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nexi S.p.A is −38.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nexi S.p.A (NEXI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nexi S.p.A is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nexi S.p.A (NEXI)?
The operating margin of Nexi S.p.A is 11.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nexi S.p.A (NEXI)?
Revenue at Nexi S.p.A is growing +1.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nexi S.p.A (NEXI)?
Earnings per share at Nexi S.p.A are growing +30.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nexi S.p.A (NEXI) carry?
The net debt of Nexi S.p.A is €3.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 8, 2026