Nexi S.p.A (NEXI) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · IT · Market cap €4.0B
Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price +16.1% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 124% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (€6.36). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (€6.36 to €12.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €2.56 – €17.00 · fair‑value band €6.36 – €12.66 · the €4.26 price screens below the €9.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
Analysis
Nexi S.p.A (NEXI) currently trades at €4.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €9.51, implying the stock looks roughly 123.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Nexi S.p.A generated revenue of €6.3B at a net margin of -53.8%. Revenue grew 3.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -37.4%. Net debt stands at €3.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €6.36 (bear case) to €12.66 (bull case); at €4.26, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at 124%, NEXI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€14.60) versus Earnings-Based (€3.96). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Nexi S.p.A. provides electronic money and payment services to banks, small and medium-sized enterprises, large international corporations, institutions, and public administrations in Italy, Nordics and Baltics, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Poland, Southeast Europe, and internationally.
Full company description
Nexi S.p.A. provides electronic money and payment services to banks, small and medium-sized enterprises, large international corporations, institutions, and public administrations in Italy, Nordics and Baltics, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Poland, Southeast Europe, and internationally. The company offers payment processing and acceptance services; configuration, activation, and maintenance of Point of Sales terminals; fraud prevention services; and dispute management services, as well as customer support and value-added services. It also provides various issuing services, such as issue, supply, and management of private and corporate payment cards; payment tracking and the production of monthly statements, data analysis and price-setting support services, customer service, and dispute management, as well as communication and customer development services; installation and management of Automated Teller Machines; clearing services; and digital banking services for the management of current accounts and payments. In addition, the company offers applications for invoice management and storage, prepaid card reloading, bill payments, and postal payments. The company was founded in 1939 and is based in Milan, Italy.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Nexi S.p.A reported revenue of €6.3B in FY2025 versus €3.0B in FY2021, a compound +20.0%/yr. Reported net income was −€3.4B in FY2025.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Nexi SpA (NEXXY) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strategic Moves Amid Modest Growth
- Nexi SpA (NEXXY) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Resilient Growth Amidst Challenges
- Nexi SpA (NEXXY) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Growth Amidst Market Challenges
- Assessing Nexi's (BIT:NEXI) Valuation: Is the Market Overlooking Its Potential?
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 368 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $384.00 | $274.17 | -29% |
| Oracle Corporation ORAC | C$9.08 | C$2.94 | -68% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $160.78 | $44.96 | -72% |
| Synopsys, Inc 1SNPS | €354.50 | €93.61 | -74% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$114.53 | A$70.69 | -38% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $79.94 | $44.89 | -44% |
| Range Intelligent Computing Technology Group 300442 | ¥71.60 | ¥34.00 | -53% |
| Oracle Financial Services Software Limited OFSS | ₹11,651 | ₹5,821 | -50% |
| 360 Security Technology Inc 601360 | ¥9.64 | ¥5.05 | -48% |
| One97 Communications Limited PAYTM | ₹1,342 | ₹181.50 | -86% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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