Netfonds AG (NF4) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · DE · Market cap €185M
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from €13.47 to €10.16 (−24.6%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +16.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 89% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€12.70). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €27.33 – €92.50 · fair‑value band €7.62 – €12.70 · the €92.50 price screens above the €10.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Netfonds AG (NF4) currently trades at €92.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €10.16, implying the stock looks roughly 89.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Netfonds AG generated revenue of €239M at a net margin of 1.4%. Revenue grew 22.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.0%. Net debt stands at €24.6M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €7.62 (bear case) to €12.70 (bull case); at €92.50, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 129% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -15% fair-value upside, at -89%, NF4 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (€45.82) versus Dividend Discount (€1.71). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 83
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Netfonds AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides advisory services for the financial and insurance sectors in Germany. The company offers traditional asset management for private clients; and portfolio management of investment funds. It also operates a B2B platform in the finance and insurance sectors; and as a B2B2C service provider.
Full company description
Netfonds AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides advisory services for the financial and insurance sectors in Germany. The company offers traditional asset management for private clients; and portfolio management of investment funds. It also operates a B2B platform in the finance and insurance sectors; and as a B2B2C service provider. In addition, the company provides billing model services comprising commission, variable service fees, service fees and commissions, fixed service fees, and fee-based consulting with credit to the client's account; customer loyalty, back office, legal certainty, customer acquisition, research, benefits, and basic knowledge services; finfire, a consultant software; and continuing education services, including online training courses, personal appointments, roadshows and trade fairs, workshops, and partner networks. It serves investment advisors, insurance brokers, banks, and organizations. Netfonds AG was founded in 2000 and is based in Hamburg, Germany.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Netfonds AG reported revenue of €276M in FY2025 versus €204M in FY2021, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was €1.4M in FY2025, compounding −36.2%/yr from FY2021.
NF4 screens 89% overvalued. Compare with ORIX Corporation →
Peer Group
Financial Conglomerates · 55 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Financial Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Financial Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORIX Corporation IX | $40.31 | $35.05 | -13% |
| Bajaj Finserv Ltd BAJAJFINSV | ₹2,065 | ₹682.29 | -67% |
| Yuanta Financial Holding 2885 | 66.70 TWD | 35.75 TWD | -46% |
| China Galaxy Securities Co 601881 | ¥12.94 | ¥18.92 | +46% |
| Guosen Securities Co 002736 | ¥10.34 | ¥17.96 | +74% |
| CNPC Capital Company 000617 | ¥6.80 | ¥5.78 | -15% |
| Aditya Birla Capital Limited ABCAPITAL | ₹399.25 | ₹176.15 | -56% |
| Freedom Holding FRHC | $152.69 | $32.75 | -79% |
| Voya Financial, Inc VOYA | $98.49 | $76.48 | -22% |
| Guangzhou Yuexiu Capital Holdings 000987 | ¥7.77 | ¥9.27 | +19% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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