Nagacorp Ltd (NGCRY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Nagacorp Ltd $93.53, price $26.00, upside +259.7%, quality 76 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $19.72 – $97.21 · fair‑value band $60.62 – $128.71 · the $26.00 price screens below the $93.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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NagaCorp Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the management and operation of a hotel and casino complex in the Kingdom of Cambodia. It operates through two segments, Casino Operations; and Hotel and Entertainment Operations.
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NagaCorp Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the management and operation of a hotel and casino complex in the Kingdom of Cambodia. It operates through two segments, Casino Operations; and Hotel and Entertainment Operations. The company owns, manages, and operates NagaWorld, an integrated hotel and entertainment complex that consists of gaming tables, electronic gaming machines, public gaming areas, VIP referral halls, suites and rooms, food and beverage outlets, a live performance venue, event spaces, and a shopping mall. It also engages in the provision of management consulting; management of aircraft; transportation support activities; travel agency services; and employment placement agency services. In addition, it is involved in property development and investment activities; and the operation of a retail business and a football club. Further, the company manages NagaCity Walk project; and engages in culture tourism center activities. NagaCorp Ltd. was founded in 1995 and is based in Phnom Penh, the Kingdom of Cambodia.
Stock analysis
Nagacorp Ltd ADR (NGCRY) currently trades at $26.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $93.53, implying the stock looks roughly 72.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $116.19 per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the $26.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $21.83, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $60.62 (bear) to $128.71 (bull), the price of $26.00 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Nagacorp Ltd ADR reported revenue of $710M in FY2025 versus $214M in FY2021, a compound +35.0%/yr. Reported net income was $310M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.1B · P/E ratio 6.2 · P/S ratio 2.70 · EPS (TTM) $4.21 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 43.7% · Return on equity 13.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 47% fair-value upside, at 260%, NGCRY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $60.62Fair Value $93.53Bull $128.71
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.17 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+34.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.5% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+24.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+22.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.1% vs 0.1%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 71%
2025 sits 183% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−13.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −15.1% a year for the price and +3.5% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Resorts & Casinos · 67 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score76 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13.6% · Above median
Return on assets7.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)46.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)44.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth36.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.3% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
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Is Nagacorp Ltd (NGCRY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $93.53 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $26.00, about +260% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NGCRY?
Our model-based fair value for Nagacorp Ltd ADR is $93.53 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $26.00.
What is the quality score of NGCRY?
Nagacorp Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nagacorp Ltd (NGCRY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $93.53 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $60.62, optimistic scenario $128.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nagacorp Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $93.53, about +260% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $26.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $60.62, optimistic scenario $128.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nagacorp Ltd (NGCRY)?
Nagacorp Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $666M (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Nagacorp Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Nagacorp Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.31% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nagacorp Ltd (NGCRY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nagacorp Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -13.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -4.2 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NGCRY use?
Our models discount Nagacorp Ltd ADR at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.29, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nagacorp Ltd ADR that is -13.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nagacorp Ltd (NGCRY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nagacorp Ltd ADR grew -4.2 % a year. The price currently implies -13.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nagacorp Ltd (NGCRY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nagacorp Ltd ADR (-13.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nagacorp Ltd (NGCRY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.82 %: that much free cash flow Nagacorp Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nagacorp Ltd (NGCRY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nagacorp Ltd ADR it is $93.53 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $26.00. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nagacorp Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, NGCRY trades below its calculated fair value: price $26.00, fair value $93.53, a gap of about +260% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NGCRY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($26.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($93.53). For Nagacorp Ltd ADR the two are $67.53 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nagacorp Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Nagacorp Ltd ADR at about $2.1B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $26.00; our models calculate a fair value of $93.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NGCRY?
Our models span a range for Nagacorp Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $60.62, base $93.53, optimistic $128.71 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $26.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NGCRY?
Nagacorp Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.2 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $93.53 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 3.1, EV/EBITDA 4.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nagacorp Ltd (NGCRY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nagacorp Ltd ADR (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 13.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 76/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NGCRY from its 52-week high?
Nagacorp Ltd ADR trades at $26.00, about 34% below its 52-week high of $39.15 and at the low of $26.00 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $93.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nagacorp Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Las Vegas Sands Corp, Galaxy Entertainment Group, Sands China Ltd, Wynn Resorts, Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nagacorp Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $26.00, calculated fair value $93.53 (+260%), Quality Score 76/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NGCRY calculated?
We run Nagacorp Ltd ADR through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $93.53, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Nagacorp Ltd ADR currently trades 72 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nagacorp Ltd (NGCRY)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $26.00. Our model-based fair value is $93.53, about +260% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nagacorp Ltd ADR right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (76/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($60.62). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($60.62 to $128.71) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Nagacorp Ltd (NGCRY) come from?
Earnings per share at Nagacorp Ltd ADR grew −4.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −4.4 %, EBIT margin +2.9 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Nagacorp Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Nagacorp Ltd (NGCRY)?
The market capitalisation of Nagacorp Ltd ADR is $2.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nagacorp Ltd (NGCRY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nagacorp Ltd ADR is 2.70 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nagacorp Ltd (NGCRY)?
Earnings per share at Nagacorp Ltd ADR are $4.21 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nagacorp Ltd (NGCRY)?
The dividend yield of Nagacorp Ltd ADR is 2.3% (payout 14.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nagacorp Ltd (NGCRY)?
The net margin of Nagacorp Ltd ADR is 43.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nagacorp Ltd (NGCRY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nagacorp Ltd ADR is 13.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nagacorp Ltd (NGCRY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nagacorp Ltd ADR is 6.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nagacorp Ltd (NGCRY)?
The operating margin of Nagacorp Ltd ADR is 44.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nagacorp Ltd (NGCRY)?
Revenue at Nagacorp Ltd ADR is growing +36.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nagacorp Ltd (NGCRY)?
Earnings per share at Nagacorp Ltd ADR are growing +45.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Nagacorp Ltd (NGCRY) hold?
Nagacorp Ltd ADR holds more cash than debt, $188M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Oct 2, 2026