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Nikon Corp (NINOY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 14, 2026: fair value of Nikon Corp $6.40, price $11.53, upside -44.5%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · US · Based in Japan · ISIN US6541112024

NC Nikon Corp logo Thin data Oct 14, 2026

Nikon Corp

NINOY · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

Our calculation puts a fair price 44% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Quality 44/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +9.7 %/yr in JPY)
1.6% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Fair value $6.40 · Strongly overvalued (−44.5%)
Loss-making · -13.8% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (0/10)
Narrow moat 15/100
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$14.66 $7.12 Fair Value $6.40 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $7.12 – $14.66 · fair‑value band $4.50 – $8.30 · the $11.53 price screens above the $6.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.

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Company profile

Nikon Corporation manufactures and sells optical instruments in Japan, North America, Europe, China, Thailand, and internationally.

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The company operates through Imaging Products Business, Precision Equipment Business, Healthcare Business, Components Business, and Digital Manufacturing Business segments. The Imaging Products Business segment provides digital camera-interchangeable lens type, compact DSC and interchangeable lens.

The Precision Equipment Business segment offers FPD lithography system and semiconductor lithography system.

The Healthcare Business segment provides products and services for the life science solutions field, such as biological microscopes, for the eye care solutions field such as ultra-wide field retinal imaging devices, and for the contract cell development and manufacturing field.

The Components Business segment offers industrial microscopes, measuring instruments, X-ray, CT inspections systems; and optical components, optical parts, and encoders; EUV-related components and space-related solutions; and photomask substrates for FPDs. The Digital Manufacturing Business provides products and services of metal 3D printers.

Nikon Corporation was incorporated in 1917 and is headquartered in Shinagawa, Japan.

Stock analysis

Nikon Corp (NINOY) currently trades at $11.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.40, 44.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $8.29 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the $11.53 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $3.20, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $4.50 (bear) to $8.30 (bull), the price of $11.53 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Nikon Corp reported revenue of ¥718B in FY2026 versus ¥540B in FY2022, a compound +7.4%/yr. Reported net income was −¥91.3B in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap $3.8B · EPS (TTM) $−1.65 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin −12.7% · Return on equity −15.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.5% · Operating margin −0.6% · Revenue (TTM) ¥683B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 29% fair-value upside, at −44%, NINOY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $4.50 Fair Value $6.40 Bull $8.30
Price $11.53 · Upside -44.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Gordon GGM $2.94 $3.20 $3.60 69
DDM Multi-Stage $2.94 $3.69 $4.68 67
EV/EBITDA $6.39 $8.29 $10.19 67
All 4 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $2.94 $3.20 $3.60 69
DDM Multi-Stage $2.94 $3.69 $4.68 67
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $6.39 $8.29 $10.19 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $5.65 $7.58 $11.31 54

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 18
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 19
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 4
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Financial strength 59
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 92
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 63
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 29
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
Near the 52-week high 30
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
New shares 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 34/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.6% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−5.6% (2021) → −1.8% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

NINOY screens overvalued: fair value 44% below the price. Compare with Pop Mart International Group →

Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: The business draws its main strength from industrial precision tools supporting automation in labor-short sectors while its main weak point is sustained net losses together with negative free cash flow and weak cash conversion.
Main risk: Continued dependence on the leisure segment for most of the value would constrain revenue growth if the industrial side cannot offset slower camera demand.
Nikon is rolling out 3D vision tracking software for its robot vision systems this month, letting robots handle workpieces with varying positions and orientations on production lines without extra sensors. This builds on its industrial precision tools for automation in sectors facing labor shortages. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Does the industrial side deliver enough new revenue to offset slower growth in its traditional camera business, or does the leisure segment still drive most of the value?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 172 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −44.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −8.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −13.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −0.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 3.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 1.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.21× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper

PEG 3.11× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 37
FUTURE (revenue growth)19 · sector 29
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)90 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)44 · sector 58

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Ninebot Limited 689009 ¥37.10 ¥108.20 +192% vs NINOY
Li Ning Company 2331 HK$12.53 HK$29.28 +134% vs NINOY
Planet Fitness, Inc PLNT $47.89 $65.72 +37% vs NINOY
Pop Mart International Group 9992 HK$152.30 HK$206.97 +36% vs NINOY
Mattel, Inc MAT $16.76 $21.66 +29% vs NINOY
Fluidra, S.A FDR €17.68 €19.68 +11% vs NINOY
Hasbro, Inc HAS $92.50 $85.98 −7% vs NINOY
Amer Sports, Inc AS $28.14 $19.30 −31% vs NINOY
Acushnet Holdings GOLF $80.48 $43.08 −46% vs NINOY
Life Time Group LTH $40.37 $15.55 −61% vs NINOY

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Nikon Corp · Fair Value
$6.40 −44%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nikon Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NINOY

Frequently asked questions

Is Nikon Corp (NINOY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.40 versus a price of $11.53, about −44% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NINOY?
Our model-based fair value for Nikon Corp is $6.40 (as of Oct 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.53.
What is the quality score of NINOY?
Nikon Corp has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nikon Corp (NINOY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.40 (as of Oct 14, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.50, optimistic scenario $8.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nikon Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.40, about −44% upside versus a price of $11.53 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.50, optimistic scenario $8.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nikon Corp (NINOY)?
Nikon Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥683B (latest available figure, as of Oct 14, 2026).
Does Nikon Corp pay a dividend?
Nikon Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.55% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 14, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Nikon Corp (NINOY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nikon Corp it is $6.40 per share (as of Oct 14, 2026), against a price of $11.53. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nikon Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 14, 2026, NINOY trades above its calculated fair value: price $11.53, fair value $6.40, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NINOY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.40). For Nikon Corp the two are $5.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nikon Corp worth?
The market values Nikon Corp at about $3.8B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 14, 2026). Per share that is $11.53; our models calculate a fair value of $6.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NINOY?
Our models span a range for Nikon Corp: cautious scenario $4.50, base $6.40, optimistic $8.30 per share (as of Oct 14, 2026, price $11.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of NINOY?
The PEG ratio of Nikon Corp is 3.11 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 14, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nikon Corp (NINOY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nikon Corp (as of Oct 14, 2026): return on equity −15.2%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NINOY from its 52-week high?
Nikon Corp trades at $11.53, about 21% below its 52-week high of $14.66 and 11% above the low of $10.43 (as of Oct 14, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nikon Corp?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Pop Mart International Group, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, Life Time Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nikon Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 14, 2026: price $11.53, calculated fair value $6.40 (−44%), Quality Score 44/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NINOY calculated?
We run Nikon Corp through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.40, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Nikon Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nikon Corp (NINOY)?
The closing price on Oct 14, 2026 was $11.53. Our model-based fair value is $6.40, about −44% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nikon Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.30). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($4.50 to $8.30) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Nikon Corp (NINOY) come from?
Earnings per share at Nikon Corp grew +2.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.1 %, EBIT margin −7.3 %, tax rate +2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +8.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Nikon Corp

How large is the market capitalisation of Nikon Corp (NINOY)?
The market capitalisation of Nikon Corp is $3.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Nikon Corp (NINOY)?
Earnings per share at Nikon Corp are $−1.65. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nikon Corp (NINOY)?
The dividend yield of Nikon Corp is 1.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nikon Corp (NINOY)?
The net margin of Nikon Corp is −12.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nikon Corp (NINOY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nikon Corp is −15.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nikon Corp (NINOY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nikon Corp is 2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nikon Corp (NINOY)?
The operating margin of Nikon Corp is −0.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nikon Corp (NINOY)?
Revenue at Nikon Corp is growing +3.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nikon Corp (NINOY)?
Earnings per share at Nikon Corp are growing −86.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Nikon Corp (NINOY) generate?
The free cash flow of Nikon Corp is −¥43.4B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Nikon Corp (NINOY) carry?
The net debt of Nikon Corp is ¥62.2B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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