Nikon Corp (NINOY) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $4.4B · ISIN US6541112024
Nikon Corp
NINOY · US
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $8.14 to $8.27 (+1.6%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price +1.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and trading another 48% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($10.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.12 – $14.66 · fair‑value band $6.37 – $10.16 · the $12.22 price screens above the $8.27 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Nikon Corp (NINOY) currently trades at $12.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.27, implying the stock looks roughly 32.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Nikon Corp generated revenue of $677B at a net margin of -12.7%. Revenue declined 4.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -14.0%. Net debt stands at $62.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $6.37 (bear case) to $10.16 (bull case); at $12.22, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -1% fair-value upside, at -32%, NINOY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($8.27) versus Asset-Based ($7.55). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (67).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Nikon Corporation manufactures and sells optical instruments in Japan, North America, Europe, China, Thailand, and internationally. The company operates through Imaging Products Business, Precision Equipment Business, Healthcare Business, Components Business, and Digital Manufacturing Business segments.
Full company description
Nikon Corporation manufactures and sells optical instruments in Japan, North America, Europe, China, Thailand, and internationally. The company operates through Imaging Products Business, Precision Equipment Business, Healthcare Business, Components Business, and Digital Manufacturing Business segments. The Imaging Products Business segment provides digital camera-interchangeable lens type, compact DSC and interchangeable lens. The Precision Equipment Business segment offers FPD lithography system and semiconductor lithography system. The Healthcare Business segment provides products and services for the life science solutions field, such as biological microscopes, for the eye care solutions field such as ultra-wide field retinal imaging devices, and for the contract cell development and manufacturing field. The Components Business segment offers industrial microscopes, measuring instruments, X-ray, CT inspections systems; and optical components, optical parts, and encoders; EUV-related components and space-related solutions; and photomask substrates for FPDs. The Digital Manufacturing Business provides products and services of metal 3D printers. Nikon Corporation was incorporated in 1917 and is headquartered in Shinagawa, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Nikon Corp reported revenue of $718B in FY2026 versus $540B in FY2022, a compound +7.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$91.3B in FY2026.
of which total revenue −1.5 % · buybacks/dilution +1.6 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
NINOY screens 48% overvalued. Compare with ANTA Sports Products Limited →
Peer Group
Leisure · 194 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANTA Sports Products Limited 82020 | HK$62.50 | HK$73.57 | +18% |
| Pop Mart International Group 9992 | HK$158.70 | HK$227.30 | +43% |
| Amer Sports, Inc AS | $33.03 | $16.16 | -51% |
| Hasbro, Inc HAS | $96.29 | $81.97 | -15% |
| Life Time Group LTH | $45.40 | $15.61 | -66% |
| Li Ning Company 82331 | HK$11.62 | HK$11.48 | -1% |
| Acushnet Holdings GOLF | $89.10 | $36.89 | -59% |
| Ninebot Limited 689009 | ¥44.94 | ¥39.73 | -12% |
| Mattel, Inc MAT | $15.26 | $18.93 | +24% |
| Planet Fitness, Inc PLNT | $53.33 | $52.62 | -1% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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