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NIO Inc (NIO) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $12.6B

NI NIO Inc logo NIO Inc NIO · US
Price$5.09
Fair Value$1.04
Upside-79.6%
Quality35/100
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Evidence: Low Range $0.7800 – $1.30

Fair value as of: Jun 24, 2026

From 2 valuation models · updated 9 days ago

Share price −20.3% over the past month.

Price vs Fair Value (12 months)

$8.38 $3.62 Fair Value $1.04 Jul 2025 Jul 2026

12‑month range $3.62 – $8.38 · fair‑value band $0.7800 – $1.30 · the $5.09 price screens above the $1.04 fair value. As of Jun 24, 2026.

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Analysis

NIO Inc (NIO) currently trades at $5.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.04 — implying the stock looks roughly 79.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Over the trailing twelve months, NIO Inc generated revenue of $101B at a net margin of -9.1%. Revenue grew 112.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -84.0%. Net debt stands at $210M. Fundamentals as of Jun 24, 2026

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $101B
Revenue growth (YoY) +112%
Net margin -9.1%
Return on equity -84.0%
Free cash flow −$3.1B FY2025
Operating margin -1.2%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) $-0.5600
Net debt $210M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jun 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

About the company

NIO Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells smart electric vehicles in China, Europe, and internationally. It offers five and six-seater electric SUVs, as well as smart electric sedans. The company also offers power solutions, including Power Home, a home charging solution; Power Swap, a battery-swapping service; Power Charger and Destination Charger; Power Mobile, a mobile charging service through charging vans; Power Map, an application that provides access to a network of public chargers and their real-time information; and One Click for power valet service. In addition, it provides repair, maintenance, car beauty, and inspection services through its service centers and authorized third-party service centers; vehicle transportation and delivery, pre-delivery inspections, guidance on vehicle features, assistance with vehicle registration, and insurance processing services; insurance, maintenance, repairs, accident rescue, car washing, chauffeur services, and valet parking …

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

NIO Inc reported revenue of $85.1B in FY2025 versus $36.1B in FY2021, a compound +23.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$14.6B in FY2025.

Revenue +23.9%/yr
FY21 $36.1B
FY22 $49.3B
FY23 $55.6B
FY24 $65.7B
FY25 $85.1B
Net income
FY21 −$10.6B
FY22 −$14.6B
FY23 −$21.1B
FY24 −$22.7B
FY25 −$14.6B

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Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others) — not an editorial selection, not financial advice.

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Frequently asked questions

Is NIO Inc (NIO) undervalued?
As of Jun 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.04 versus a price of $5.09 — about −80% (overvalued). Model-based estimate, not financial advice.
What is the fair value of NIO?
Our model-based fair value for NIO Inc is $1.04 (as of Jun 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $5.09.
What is the quality score of NIO?
NIO Inc has a Quality Score of 35/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.
What is the revenue of NIO Inc (NIO)?
NIO Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $101B (latest available figure, as of Jun 24, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of NIO?
The net profit margin of NIO Inc is about -9.1%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.