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Data-driven stock valuation

NIO Inc. (NION) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 29, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of NIO Inc. stock MXN 50.04, price MXN 62.18, upside -19.5%, quality 28 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Consumer Cyclical MX · Based in China

NI NIO Inc. logo Thin data Oct 29, 2026

NIO Inc.

NION · MX
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 20% below what the stock costs today.

Revenue last quarter +69% vs. a year ago.
Expensive Growth (revenue 3y +21.1 %/yr in CNY)
Fair value 50.04 MXN · Overvalued (−19.5%)
Quality 28/100
Loss-making · -4.2% net margin (TTM)
High debt
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/11)
Narrow moat 6/100
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

1,004 MXN 60.85 MXN Fair Value 50.04 MXN Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 60.85 MXN – 1,004 MXN · fair‑value band 37.41 MXN – 74.82 MXN · the 62.18 MXN price screens above the 50.04 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 29, 2026.

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Company profile

NIO Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells smart electric vehicles in China, Europe, and internationally. It offers five and six-seater electric SUVs, as well as smart electric sedans.

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The company also offers power solutions, including Power Home, a home charging solution; Power Swap, a battery-swapping service; Power Charger and Destination Charger; Power Mobile, a mobile charging service through charging vans; Power Map, an application that provides access to a network of public chargers and their real-time information; and One Click for power valet service.

In addition, it provides repair, maintenance, car beauty, and inspection services through its service centers and authorized third-party service centers; vehicle transportation and delivery, pre-delivery inspections, guidance on vehicle features, assistance with vehicle registration, and insurance processing services; insurance, maintenance, repairs, accident rescue, car washing, chauffeur services, and valet parking services; and remote monitoring and real-time diagnostics services, as well as technical, warranty, and auto financing arrangements.

Further, the company is involved in the provision of energy and service packages to its users; design and technology development activities; manufacture of electric powertrains, battery packs, and components; and sales and after-sales management activities.

Additionally, it operates in app NIO Auto Mall where users can select from various accessories and value added services; and online auction platform. The company was formerly known as NextEV Inc. and changed its name to NIO Inc. in July 2017.

NIO Inc. was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

Stock analysis

NIO Inc. (NION) currently trades at 62.18 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 50.04 MXN, 19.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 80/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: 37.41 MXN (bear) to 74.82 MXN (bull), the price of 62.18 MXN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

NIO Inc. reported revenue of 87.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 49.3B CNY in FY2022, a compound +21.1%/yr. Reported net income was −15.6B CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 154B MXN (≈ $8.2B) Mid · P/S ratio 1.35 · EPS (TTM) −4.58 MXN · Net margin −17.8% · Return on equity −45.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −16.8% · Operating margin −1.1% · Revenue (TTM) 114B CNY.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 6 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at −20%, NION screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 37.41 MXN Fair Value 50.04 MXN Bull 74.82 MXN
Price 62.18 MXN · Upside -19.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) 2.36 MXN 3.16 MXN 4.72 MXN 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 2.36 MXN 3.16 MXN 4.72 MXN 54

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 28/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 13
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 97
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 10
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 8
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 76
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 44
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 7
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 1
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+33.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−31.7% (2022) → −16.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

NION screens overvalued: fair value 20% below the price. Compare with Toyota Motor Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 108 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 28 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −18.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −12.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −4.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −1.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 69.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 2.07× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper

P/B 13.00× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 0.47× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 15.1× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)7 · sector 49
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 38
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 50

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Volkswagen AG VOW €68.35 €262.67 +284% vs NION
Mercedes-Benz Group MBG €39.83 €106.12 +166% vs NION
Hyundai Motor Company 005380 290,500 KRW 361,579 KRW +24% vs NION
Ferrari N.V RACE $392.94 $432.23 +10% vs NION
Toyota Motor Corporation TM $196.63 $212.86 +8% vs NION
Ford Motor Company F $11.95 $12.29 +3% vs NION
BYD Company 002594 ¥82.40 ¥77.84 −6% vs NION
General Motors Company GM $80.54 $65.05 −19% vs NION
Honda Motor Co HMC $34.36 $19.84 −42% vs NION
Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911 €46.12 €22.09 −52% vs NION

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NIO Inc. · Fair Value
50.04 MXN −20%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NIO Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NION

Frequently asked questions

Is NIO Inc. (NION) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 50.04 MXN versus a price of 62.18 MXN, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NION?
Our model-based fair value for NIO Inc. is 50.04 MXN (as of Oct 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 62.18 MXN.
What is the quality score of NION?
NIO Inc. has a Quality Score of 28/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NIO Inc. (NION)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 50.04 MXN (as of Oct 29, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario 37.41 MXN, optimistic scenario 74.82 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NIO Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 50.04 MXN, about −20% upside versus a price of 62.18 MXN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 37.41 MXN, optimistic scenario 74.82 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NIO Inc. (NION)?
NIO Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 114B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of NIO Inc. (NION)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NIO Inc. it is 50.04 MXN per share (as of Oct 29, 2026), against a price of 62.18 MXN. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NIO Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 29, 2026, NION trades above its calculated fair value: price 62.18 MXN, fair value 50.04 MXN, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NION?
No. The price is what the market pays today (62.18 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (50.04 MXN). For NIO Inc. the two are 12.14 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NIO Inc. worth?
The market values NIO Inc. at about 154B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Oct 29, 2026). Per share that is 62.18 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 50.04 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NION?
Our models span a range for NIO Inc.: cautious scenario 37.41 MXN, base 50.04 MXN, optimistic 74.82 MXN per share (as of Oct 29, 2026, price 62.18 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of NIO Inc. (NION)?
Balance-sheet figures for NIO Inc. (as of Oct 29, 2026): return on equity −45.3%, debt of 2.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 28/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NION from its 52-week high?
NIO Inc. trades at 62.18 MXN, about 55% below its 52-week high of 137.32 MXN and 2% above the low of 60.85 MXN (as of Oct 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 50.04 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NIO Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Ferrari N.V, General Motors Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NIO Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 29, 2026: price 62.18 MXN, calculated fair value 50.04 MXN (−20%), Quality Score 28/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NION calculated?
We run NIO Inc. through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 50.04 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.1 % above its aggregate fair value. NIO Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NIO Inc. (NION)?
The closing price on Oct 29, 2026 was 62.18 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 50.04 MXN, about −20% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NIO Inc. right now?
Weak quality (28/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (37.41 MXN to 74.82 MXN) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of NIO Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of NIO Inc. (NION)?
The market capitalisation of NIO Inc. is 154B MXN (≈ $8.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NIO Inc. (NION)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NIO Inc. is 1.35 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NIO Inc. (NION)?
Earnings per share at NIO Inc. are −4.58 MXN. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of NIO Inc. (NION)?
The net margin of NIO Inc. is −17.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NIO Inc. (NION)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NIO Inc. is −45.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NIO Inc. (NION)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NIO Inc. is −16.8% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NIO Inc. (NION)?
The operating margin of NIO Inc. is −1.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NIO Inc. (NION)?
Revenue at NIO Inc. is growing +69.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does NIO Inc. (NION) generate?
The free cash flow of NIO Inc. is −3.1B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does NIO Inc. (NION) carry?
The net debt of NIO Inc. is 2.7B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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