Nippon Denko Co (NJ5) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Nippon Denko Co stock €3.71, price €2.32, upside +60.0%, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?Yes
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.31 – €2.91 · fair‑value band €2.53 – €4.89 · the €2.32 price screens below the €3.71 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 27, 2026.
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Nippon Denko Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the ferroalloys, functional materials, incineration ash resource recovery, aqua solutions, and electric power businesses in Japan.
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The company offers ferroalloys products, including high and low carbon ferromanganese, silomanganese, and ferrosilicon; warehousing, port cargo handling, and functional materials, such as zirconium and boron oxide, metal hydride and boron alloys, storage alloys, manganese inorganic chemical products, and cathode materials for lithium-ion batteries.
It also provides eco-melt systems and the utilization of ECOLAROCK, as well as melting and solidification, detoxification treatment/recycling; and aqua solutions comprising wastewater treatment equipment and pure water production systems.
In addition, the company is involved in the electric power business and operates dams and power plants. Nippon Denko Co., Ltd. was founded in 1925 and is based in Chuo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Nippon Denko Co (NJ5) currently trades at €2.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3.71, implying the stock looks roughly 37.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €3.73 per share, and 13 of the 24 models we run sit above the €2.32 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €0.5800, and 11 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €2.53 (bear) to €4.89 (bull), the price of €2.32 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Nippon Denko Co reported revenue of ¥77.3B in FY2025 versus ¥66.0B in FY2021, a compound +4.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥1.4B in FY2025, compounding −34.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €289M Small · EPS (TTM) €−0.0800 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 1.8% · Return on equity −2.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.8% · Operating margin 16.8% · Revenue (TTM) ¥78.0B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at 60%, NJ5 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€2.53Fair Value €3.71Bull€4.89
Price €2.32 · Upside +60.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.9%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−3.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 7%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−11.2%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −13.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 403 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+60.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−2.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)16.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nippon Denko Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NJ5
Frequently asked questions
Is Nippon Denko Co (NJ5) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €3.71 versus a price of €2.32, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NJ5?
Our model-based fair value for Nippon Denko Co is €3.71 (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €2.32.
What is the quality score of NJ5?
Nippon Denko Co has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nippon Denko Co (NJ5)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €3.71 (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €2.53, optimistic scenario €4.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nippon Denko Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €3.71, about +60% upside versus a price of €2.32 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €2.53, optimistic scenario €4.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nippon Denko Co (NJ5)?
Nippon Denko Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥78.0B (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
Does Nippon Denko Co pay a dividend?
Nippon Denko Co currently shows a dividend yield of 2.82% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nippon Denko Co (NJ5)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nippon Denko Co would have to grow free cash flow by -11.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +4.0 % per year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NJ5 use?
Our models discount Nippon Denko Co at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.97, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nippon Denko Co that is -11.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nippon Denko Co (NJ5) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Nippon Denko Co grew +4.0 % a year. The price currently implies -11.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nippon Denko Co (NJ5) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nippon Denko Co (-11.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nippon Denko Co (NJ5)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 19.14 %: that much free cash flow Nippon Denko Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nippon Denko Co (NJ5)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nippon Denko Co it is €3.71 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of €2.32. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nippon Denko Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, NJ5 trades below its calculated fair value: price €2.32, fair value €3.71, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NJ5?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€2.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€3.71). For Nippon Denko Co the two are €1.39 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nippon Denko Co worth?
The market values Nippon Denko Co at about €289M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is €2.32; our models calculate a fair value of €3.71 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NJ5?
Our models span a range for Nippon Denko Co: cautious scenario €2.53, base €3.71, optimistic €4.89 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price €2.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nippon Denko Co (NJ5)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nippon Denko Co (as of Oct 27, 2026): return on equity −2.5%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NJ5 from its 52-week high?
Nippon Denko Co trades at €2.32, about 19% below its 52-week high of €2.86 and 44% above the low of €1.61 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €3.71 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nippon Denko Co?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nippon Denko Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price €2.32, calculated fair value €3.71 (+60%), Quality Score 63/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NJ5 calculated?
We run Nippon Denko Co through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €3.71, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Nippon Denko Co currently trades 38 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nippon Denko Co (NJ5)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was €2.32. Our model-based fair value is €3.71, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nippon Denko Co right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€2.53). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€2.53 to €4.89) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Nippon Denko Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Nippon Denko Co (NJ5)?
The market capitalisation of Nippon Denko Co is €289M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Nippon Denko Co (NJ5)?
Earnings per share at Nippon Denko Co are €−0.0800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nippon Denko Co (NJ5)?
The dividend yield of Nippon Denko Co is 2.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nippon Denko Co (NJ5)?
The net margin of Nippon Denko Co is 1.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nippon Denko Co (NJ5)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nippon Denko Co is −2.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nippon Denko Co (NJ5)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nippon Denko Co is 6.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nippon Denko Co (NJ5)?
The operating margin of Nippon Denko Co is 16.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nippon Denko Co (NJ5)?
Revenue at Nippon Denko Co is growing +3.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nippon Denko Co (NJ5)?
Earnings per share at Nippon Denko Co are growing +23.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nippon Denko Co (NJ5) carry?
The net debt of Nippon Denko Co is ¥4.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Oct 27, 2026