Nippon Paint Holdings (NPCPF) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $15.6B
Nippon Paint Holdings
NPCPF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price −0.5% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range ($4.29 to $9.26) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.70 – $19.56 · fair‑value band $4.29 – $9.26 · the $6.69 price screens below the $7.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Nippon Paint Holdings (NPCPF) currently trades at $6.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.12, implying the stock looks roughly 6.4% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Nippon Paint Holdings generated revenue of $1.9T at a net margin of 10.5%. Revenue grew 9.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.5%. Net debt stands at $998B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $4.29 (bear case) to $9.26 (bull case); at $6.69, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at 6%, NPCPF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($8.67) versus Economic Profit ($2.97). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Nippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd. engages in the paints and fine chemicals businesses in Japan, Asia, the United States, Europe, and internationally.
Full company description
Nippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd. engages in the paints and fine chemicals businesses in Japan, Asia, the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company offers automotive coatings, including paints for the automotive body, surface treatment, electrodeposition coating, intermediate coating, and finish coating; paints for plastic components, such as bumpers and interior components; decorative paints for construction sites, single-family detached homes, condominiums, office buildings, medical institutions, and schools; industrial coatings that are used for construction and farming machinery, exterior construction materials, office equipment, electric home appliances; and marine coatings, such as antifouling paints. It also provides surface treatment products comprising functional coatings, which demonstrate various functions, such as hydrophilicity and rust prevention, and substrate films; caulking agents to fill gaps between building materials; adhesives to fix flooring and building materials; and fillers used for base coatings. In addition, the company is involved in the investment business; and sale of paints and raw materials. The company was formerly known as Nippon Paint Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Nippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd. in October 2014. Nippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd. was founded in 1879 and is headquartered in Minato, Japan. Nippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Nipsea International Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Nippon Paint Holdings reported revenue of $1.8T in FY2025 versus $998B in FY2021, a compound +15.5%/yr. Reported net income was $180B in FY2025, compounding +27.7%/yr from FY2021.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Nippon Paint has made multiple offers for Akzo Nobel’s decorative paints unit - Bloomberg
- Akzo Nobel spurns €12.5B takeover offer from Nippon Paint, Sherwin-Williams
- Nippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd. Non-GAAP EPS of ¥22.18, revenue of ¥490.2B
Peer Group
Specialty Chemicals · 676 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linde plc LIN | $489.98 | $222.03 | -55% |
| Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 | 181.50 TWD | 255.83 TWD | +41% |
| Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 | ¥70.04 | ¥68.03 | -3% |
| Novozymes A/S NSISB | kr 428.20 | kr 179.66 | -58% |
| Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT | ₹2,689 | ₹668.81 | -75% |
| Solar Industries India Limited SOLARINDS | ₹18,236 | ₹2,793 | -85% |
| Pidilite Industries Limited PIDILITIND | ₹1,560 | ₹351.84 | -77% |
| PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk TPIA | 1,805 IDR | 2,888 IDR | +60% |
| Linde India Limited LINDEINDIA | ₹7,115 | ₹757.93 | -89% |
| Berger Paints India Limited BERGEPAINT | ₹493.70 | ₹164.29 | -67% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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