Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord $19.35, price $21.04, upside -8.0%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $21.04 – $29.10 · fair‑value band $17.59 – $19.35 · the $21.04 price screens above the $19.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Nippon Sharyo, Ltd. engages in the railway vehicles, construction machinery, transportation equipment and steel structures, engineering, and other businesses in Japan, the United States, Asia, and internationally.
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Nippon Sharyo, Ltd. engages in the railway vehicles, construction machinery, transportation equipment and steel structures, engineering, and other businesses in Japan, the United States, Asia, and internationally. The company offers electric trains, diesel railcars, hybrid cars, and passenger cars; and bullet, intercity and express, suburban and commuter, and exported train, as well as metro and subway, AGT, LRV, and monorail. It also provides pile drivers, full rotary tubing equipment, earth drills, obstacle removal machines; pilling, soil stabilizing, mini piling, earth drilling rigs, as well as casing rotator and crawler crane; and tank trucks, tank trailers, tank containers, storage tanks, large land vehicle carriers, unmanned guided vehicles, and freight cars. In addition, the company manufactures, sells, and erects new road and railway bridges, as well as machinery and equipment for railway operators, agricultural plants, and paper-related equipment; and provides repairs and maintenance of existing bridges. The company was incorporated in 1896 and is headquartered in Nagoya, Japan. Nippon Sharyo, Ltd. is a subsidiary of Central Japan Railway Company.
Stock analysis
Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF) currently trades at $21.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.35, implying the stock looks roughly 8.7% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $50.78 per share, and 10 of the 13 models we run sit above the $21.04 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $14.38, and 3 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $17.59 (bear) to $19.35 (bull), the price of $21.04 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord reported revenue of ¥96.3B in FY2025 versus ¥99.4B in FY2021, a compound −0.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥6.4B in FY2025, compounding −5.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $414M · P/E ratio 4.2 · P/S ratio 0.28 · EPS (TTM) $5.04 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 6.7% · Return on equity 15.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at −8%, NPPSF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $17.59Fair Value $19.35Bull $19.35
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.49/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−2.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 7%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 115 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Return on assets5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)12% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)15% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.49× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NPPSF
Frequently asked questions
Is Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.35 versus the last price from Sep 18, 2026 of $21.04, about −8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NPPSF?
Our model-based fair value for Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord is $19.35 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 18, 2026): $21.04.
What is the quality score of NPPSF?
Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $19.35 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $17.59, optimistic scenario $19.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $19.35, about −8% upside versus the last price from Sep 18, 2026 of $21.04 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $17.59, optimistic scenario $19.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥100.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord pay a dividend?
Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.49% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord it is $19.35 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $21.04. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NPPSF trades above its calculated fair value: price $21.04, fair value $19.35, a gap of about −8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NPPSF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($21.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.35). For Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord the two are $1.69 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord worth?
The market values Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord at about $414M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $21.04; our models calculate a fair value of $19.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NPPSF?
Our models span a range for Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord: cautious scenario $17.59, base $19.35, optimistic $19.35 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $21.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NPPSF?
Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $19.35 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 6.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 15.9%, debt of 0.49 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NPPSF from its 52-week high?
Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord trades at $21.04, about 28% below its 52-week high of $29.10 and at the low of $21.04 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $19.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $21.04, calculated fair value $19.35 (−8%), Quality Score 56/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NPPSF calculated?
We run Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $19.35, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 18, 2026 and stands at $21.04. Our model-based fair value is $19.35, about −8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($19.35). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The models converge in a tight band ($17.59 to $19.35), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Key figures of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord
How large is the market capitalisation of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
The market capitalisation of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord is $414M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord is 0.28 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
Earnings per share at Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord are $5.04 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
The dividend yield of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord is 1.5% (payout 6.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
The net margin of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord is 6.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord is 15.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord is 4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
The operating margin of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord is 15.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
Revenue at Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord is growing +10.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
Earnings per share at Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord are growing +26.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF) generate?
The free cash flow of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord is −¥1.4B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF) carry?
The net debt of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord is ¥31.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026