Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord stock $35.12, price $21.04, upside +66.9%, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $20.88 – $29.10 · fair‑value band $25.28 – $55.04 · the $21.04 price screens below the $35.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Nippon Sharyo, Ltd. engages in the railway vehicles, construction machinery, transportation equipment and steel structures, engineering, and other businesses in Japan, the United States, Asia, and internationally.
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The company offers electric trains, diesel railcars, hybrid cars, and passenger cars; and bullet, intercity and express, suburban and commuter, and exported train, as well as metro and subway, AGT, LRV, and monorail.
It also provides pile drivers, full rotary tubing equipment, earth drills, obstacle removal machines; pilling, soil stabilizing, mini piling, earth drilling rigs, as well as casing rotator and crawler crane; and tank trucks, tank trailers, tank containers, storage tanks, large land vehicle carriers, unmanned guided vehicles, and freight cars.
In addition, the company manufactures, sells, and erects new road and railway bridges, as well as machinery and equipment for railway operators, agricultural plants, and paper-related equipment; and provides repairs and maintenance of existing bridges.
The company was incorporated in 1896 and is headquartered in Nagoya, Japan. Nippon Sharyo, Ltd. is a subsidiary of Central Japan Railway Company.
Stock analysis
Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF) currently trades at $21.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $35.12, implying the stock looks roughly 40% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $59.44 per share, and 18 of the 24 models we run sit above the $21.04 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.36, and 6 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $25.28 (bear) to $55.04 (bull), the price of $21.04 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord reported revenue of ¥100.0B in FY2026 versus ¥94.0B in FY2022, a compound +1.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥11.7B in FY2026, compounding +22.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $414M Small · P/E ratio 3.6 · P/S ratio 0.42 · EPS (TTM) $5.84 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 11.7% · Return on equity 17.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 61 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 67%, NPPSF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$25.28Fair Value $35.12Bull$55.04
Price $21.04 · Upside +66.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.57 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.0% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+9.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 12%
2026 sits 117% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 108 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside+66.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)17.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)13.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)12.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.17× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)3.6× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.80× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months)0.65× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)14.7× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NPPSF
Frequently asked questions
Is Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $35.12 versus the last price from Sep 30, 2026 of $21.04, about +67% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NPPSF?
Our model-based fair value for Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord is $35.12 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 30, 2026): $21.04.
What is the quality score of NPPSF?
Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $35.12 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $25.28, optimistic scenario $55.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $35.12, about +67% upside versus the last price from Sep 30, 2026 of $21.04 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $25.28, optimistic scenario $55.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥100B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord pay a dividend?
Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord currently shows a dividend yield of 1.34% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord has a dividend yield of 1.3%. The next ex-dividend date is Mar 30, 2027. A dividend has been paid every year since 2021. The payout ratio is 4.9% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 7.75 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord would have to grow free cash flow by +6.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.1 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NPPSF use?
Our models discount Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.36, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord that is +6.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord grew +0.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +6.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (+6.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.29 %: that much free cash flow Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord it is $35.12 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $21.04. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, NPPSF trades below its calculated fair value: price $21.04, fair value $35.12, a gap of about +67% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NPPSF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($21.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($35.12). For Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord the two are $14.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord worth?
The market values Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord at about $414M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $21.04; our models calculate a fair value of $35.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NPPSF?
Our models span a range for Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord: cautious scenario $25.28, base $35.12, optimistic $55.04 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $21.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NPPSF?
Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.6 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $35.12 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 4.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 17.3%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NPPSF from its 52-week high?
Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord trades at $21.04, about 28% below its 52-week high of $29.10 and 1% above the low of $20.88 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $35.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $21.04, calculated fair value $35.12 (+67%), Quality Score 57/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NPPSF calculated?
We run Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $35.12 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord currently trades 40% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 30, 2026 and stands at $21.04. Our model-based fair value is $35.12, about +67% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($25.28). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($25.28 to $55.04) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord
How large is the market capitalisation of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
The market capitalisation of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord is $414M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord is 0.42 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
Earnings per share at Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord are $5.84 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
The dividend yield of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord is 1.3% (payout 4.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
The net margin of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord is 11.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord is 17.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord is 5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
The operating margin of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord is 12.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
Revenue at Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord is growing +1.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF)?
Earnings per share at Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord are growing +101% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord (NPPSF) carry?
The net debt of Nippon Sharyo Ltd Ord is ¥25.4B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 5.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026