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NewRiver REIT plc (NRWRF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of NewRiver REIT plc $1.81, price $1.02, upside +77.5%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
NewRiver REIT plc
NRWRF · USCheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
✓Fair value $1.81 · Strongly undervalued (+77.5%)
!Quality 40/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +11.7 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 24.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓6.6% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Moderate moat 63/100
!The models disagree: range $0.5300 to $3.83
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.4238 – $1.05 · fair‑value band $0.5300 – $3.83 · the $1.02 price screens below the $1.81 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
NewRiver REIT plc (NewRiver) is a leading Real Estate Investment Trust specializing in buying, managing and developing resilient retail assets throughout the UK.
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NewRiver REIT plc (NewRiver) is a leading Real Estate Investment Trust specializing in buying, managing and developing resilient retail assets throughout the UK. Following the completion of its acquisition of Capital & Regional in December 2024, NewRiver has a 0.8 billion pounds UK wide portfolio covering 7.0 million sq ft, comprising 24 community shopping centres and 11 conveniently located retail parks occupied by tenants predominately focused on essential goods and services. In addition, we manage 19 shopping centres and 17 retail parks on behalf of Capital Partners, taking our total Assets Under Management to 2.3 billion pounds. Our objective is to own and manage the most resilient retail portfolio in the UK, focused on retail parks, core shopping centres and regeneration opportunities to deliver long-term attractive recurring income returns and capital growth for our shareholders. NewRiver is listed on the Equity shares (commercial companies) category of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. NewRiver REIT plc was incorporated in 2009 in United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
NewRiver REIT plc (NRWRF) currently trades at $1.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.81, implying the stock looks roughly 43.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $1.72 per share, and 15 of the 16 models we run sit above the $1.02 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.9400, and 1 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $0.5300 (bear) to $3.83 (bull), the price of $1.02 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
NewRiver REIT plc reported revenue of £130M in FY2026 versus £75.0M in FY2022, a compound +14.8%/yr. Reported net income was £31.8M in FY2026, compounding +46.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $605M · P/E ratio 10.2 · P/S ratio 2.49 · EPS (TTM) $0.1000 · Dividend yield 6.6% · Net margin 24.4% · Return on equity 6.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at 77%, NRWRF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.5300
Fair Value $1.81
Bull $3.83
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0168 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$1.09
$1.13
$1.22
76
Growth DCF
$0.3600
$1.48
$3.11
71
FCF DCF
$0.4100
$1.33
$3.52
70
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$0.4100
$1.33
$3.52
70
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.4300
$1.72
$3.61
66
5Y EBITDA Exit
$0.7400
$2.42
$4.71
69
10Y Revenue Exit
$0.3600
$1.57
$3.50
60
10Y EBITDA Exit
$0.6000
$2.06
$4.57
62
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.6700
$1.20
$1.65
68
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.6700
$1.10
$1.28
67
Multiples
P/S Multiple
$1.25
$1.66
$2.08
58
P/B Multiple
$1.25
$1.66
$2.08
55
EV/EBIT
$1.57
$2.42
$3.28
65
EV/EBITDA
$1.02
$1.70
$2.37
65
EV/Revenue
$0.4200
$1.03
$1.63
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.7100
$0.9400
$1.41
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$0.3600
$1.48
$3.11
71
Rev-Margin DCF
$0.4300
$1.67
$3.44
66
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$1.09
$1.13
$1.22
76
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
40/100
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Profitability
36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
59
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
43
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
52
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
95
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
53
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
66
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+44.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.5% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+45.3%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−4.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.18.6% vs −17.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−134% → 39%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−8.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in GBP, UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +21.0% a year for the price and −10.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2027 (sales)−42.6%
Forecast 2028 (sales)+3.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.3%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.1%
Projected 2031 (sales)+2.9%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Retail · 91 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Real Estate sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Real Estate
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Property Group SPG | $200.76 | $114.08 | −43% |
| Realty Income Corporation O | $55.35 | $87.76 | +59% |
| Kimco Realty Corporation KIM | $22.49 | $17.46 | −22% |
| Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE URW | €91.72 | €70.12 | −24% |
| CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT or the Trust) C38U | 2.24 SGD | 1.38 SGD | −38% |
| Regency Centers Corporation REG | $73.23 | $38.95 | −47% |
| Scentre Group SCG | A$3.35 | A$3.49 | +4% |
| Link Real Estate Investment Trust (Link REIT) 0823 | HK$37.02 | HK$38.68 | +4% |
| Federal Realty Investment Trust FRT | $108.29 | $40.55 | −63% |
| Brixmor Property Group BRX | $28.07 | $18.82 | −33% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is NewRiver REIT plc (NRWRF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.81 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $1.02, about +77% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NRWRF?
Our model-based fair value for NewRiver REIT plc is $1.81 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $1.02.
What is the quality score of NRWRF?
NewRiver REIT plc has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NewRiver REIT plc (NRWRF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.81 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.5300, optimistic scenario $3.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NewRiver REIT plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.81, about +77% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $1.02 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.5300, optimistic scenario $3.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NewRiver REIT plc (NRWRF)?
NewRiver REIT plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £131M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does NewRiver REIT plc pay a dividend?
NewRiver REIT plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.57% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into NewRiver REIT plc (NRWRF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NewRiver REIT plc would have to grow free cash flow by +23.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NRWRF use?
Our models discount NewRiver REIT plc at 10.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.63, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NewRiver REIT plc that is +23.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NewRiver REIT plc (NRWRF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NewRiver REIT plc grew +11.7 % a year. The price currently implies +23.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NewRiver REIT plc (NRWRF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NewRiver REIT plc (+23.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NewRiver REIT plc (NRWRF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.30 %: that much free cash flow NewRiver REIT plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NewRiver REIT plc (NRWRF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NewRiver REIT plc it is $1.81 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $1.02. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NewRiver REIT plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NRWRF trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.02, fair value $1.81, a gap of about +77% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NRWRF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.81). For NewRiver REIT plc the two are $0.7900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NewRiver REIT plc worth?
The market values NewRiver REIT plc at about $605M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $1.02; our models calculate a fair value of $1.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NRWRF?
Our models span a range for NewRiver REIT plc: cautious scenario $0.5300, base $1.81, optimistic $3.83 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $1.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NRWRF?
NewRiver REIT plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.81 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 3.5, EV/EBITDA 14.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of NewRiver REIT plc (NRWRF)?
Balance-sheet figures for NewRiver REIT plc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 6.7%, debt of 0.95 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NRWRF from its 52-week high?
NewRiver REIT plc trades at $1.02, about 3% below its 52-week high of $1.05 and 13% above the low of $0.9000 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NewRiver REIT plc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Simon Property Group, Realty Income Corporation, Kimco Realty Corporation, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NewRiver REIT plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $1.02, calculated fair value $1.81 (+77%), Quality Score 40/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NRWRF calculated?
We run NewRiver REIT plc through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. NewRiver REIT plc currently trades 44 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NewRiver REIT plc (NRWRF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $1.02. Our model-based fair value is $1.81, about +77% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NewRiver REIT plc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($0.5300 to $3.83). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of NewRiver REIT plc (NRWRF) come from?
Earnings per share at NewRiver REIT plc grew −15.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −5.9 %, EBIT margin −5.6 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of NewRiver REIT plc
How large is the market capitalisation of NewRiver REIT plc (NRWRF)?
The market capitalisation of NewRiver REIT plc is $605M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NewRiver REIT plc (NRWRF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NewRiver REIT plc is 2.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NewRiver REIT plc (NRWRF)?
Earnings per share at NewRiver REIT plc are $0.1000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NewRiver REIT plc (NRWRF)?
The dividend yield of NewRiver REIT plc is 6.6% (payout 67.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NewRiver REIT plc (NRWRF)?
The net margin of NewRiver REIT plc is 24.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NewRiver REIT plc (NRWRF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NewRiver REIT plc is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NewRiver REIT plc (NRWRF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NewRiver REIT plc is 2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NewRiver REIT plc (NRWRF)?
The operating margin of NewRiver REIT plc is 42.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NewRiver REIT plc (NRWRF)?
Revenue at NewRiver REIT plc is growing +16.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NewRiver REIT plc (NRWRF)?
Earnings per share at NewRiver REIT plc are growing +13.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does NewRiver REIT plc (NRWRF) carry?
The net debt of NewRiver REIT plc is £403M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 20.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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