NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (NSSC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of NAPCO Security Technologies Inc $21.23, price $35.96, upside -41.0%, quality 81 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch NAPCO Security Technologies Inc for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $15.14 – $56.24 · fair‑value band $15.45 – $28.48 · the $35.96 price screens above the $21.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Follow NAPCO Security Technologies in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether NAPCO Security Technologies is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of electronic security systems for commercial, residential, institutional, industrial, and governmental applications in the United States and internationally.
Show more
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of electronic security systems for commercial, residential, institutional, industrial, and governmental applications in the United States and internationally. The company's access control systems include various types of identification readers, control panels, PC-based computers, and electronically activated door-locking devices; intrusion and fire alarm systems, consists of various detectors, a control panel, a digital keypad and signaling equipment; and door locking devices comprise microprocessor-based electronic door locks with push button, card readers and bio-metric operation, door alarms, mechanical door locks, and simple dead bolt locks. Its alarm systems include automatic communicators, cellular communication devices, control panels, combination control panels/digital communicators and digital keypad systems, fire alarm control panels, and area detectors; and video surveillance systems comprise video cameras, control panels, video monitors, or PCs. The company also buys and resells various identification readers, video cameras, PC-based computers, and various peripheral equipment for access control and video surveillance systems; offers school security products; and markets peripheral and related equipment manufactured by other companies. It markets and sells its products to independent distributors, dealers, and installers of security equipment. Napco Security Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Amityville, New York.
Stock analysis
NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (NSSC) currently trades at $35.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.23, implying the stock looks roughly 69.4% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $28.14 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $35.96 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.16, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $15.45 (bear) to $28.48 (bull), the price of $35.96 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 81/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
NAPCO Security Technologies Inc reported revenue of $182M in FY2025 versus $144M in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was $43.4M in FY2025, compounding +22.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.3B · P/E ratio 34.9 · P/S ratio 8.34 · EPS (TTM) $1.03 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 23.9% · Return on equity 21.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −41%, NSSC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $15.45Fair Value $21.23Bull $28.48
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4600 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.91/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.9% a year
Revenue growth 39 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+39.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+37.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.29% vs 25%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 26%
2025 sits 62% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.6% a year for the price and +6.1% for the forecasts.
Compare NAPCO Security Technologies Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Security & Protection Services · 115 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (NSSC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $21.23 versus a price of $35.96, about −41% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NSSC?
Our model-based fair value for NAPCO Security Technologies Inc is $21.23 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $35.96.
What is the quality score of NSSC?
NAPCO Security Technologies Inc has a Quality Score of 81/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (NSSC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $21.23 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.45, optimistic scenario $28.48. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NAPCO Security Technologies Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $21.23, about −41% upside versus a price of $35.96 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $15.45, optimistic scenario $28.48. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (NSSC)?
NAPCO Security Technologies Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $197M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does NAPCO Security Technologies Inc pay a dividend?
NAPCO Security Technologies Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.59% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (NSSC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NAPCO Security Technologies Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +19.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NSSC use?
Our models discount NAPCO Security Technologies Inc at 12.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.44, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NAPCO Security Technologies Inc that is +19.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (NSSC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NAPCO Security Technologies Inc grew +12.4 % a year. The price currently implies +19.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (NSSC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (+19.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (NSSC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.92 %: that much free cash flow NAPCO Security Technologies Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (NSSC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NAPCO Security Technologies Inc it is $21.23 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $35.96. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NAPCO Security Technologies Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NSSC trades above its calculated fair value: price $35.96, fair value $21.23, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NSSC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($35.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($21.23). For NAPCO Security Technologies Inc the two are $14.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NAPCO Security Technologies Inc worth?
The market values NAPCO Security Technologies Inc at about $1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $35.96; our models calculate a fair value of $21.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NSSC?
Our models span a range for NAPCO Security Technologies Inc: cautious scenario $15.45, base $21.23, optimistic $28.48 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $35.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NSSC?
NAPCO Security Technologies Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $21.23 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 16.3, P/B 7.8, P/S 6.7, EV/EBITDA 21.2.
What is the PEG ratio of NSSC?
The PEG ratio of NAPCO Security Technologies Inc is 16.27 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (NSSC)?
Balance-sheet figures for NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 21.7%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 81/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NSSC from its 52-week high?
NAPCO Security Technologies Inc trades at $35.96, about 23% below its 52-week high of $46.87 and 3% above the low of $34.82 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $21.23 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NAPCO Security Technologies Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Verisure plc, Allegion plc, Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co, MSA Safety Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NAPCO Security Technologies Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $35.96, calculated fair value $21.23 (−41%), Quality Score 81/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NSSC calculated?
We run NAPCO Security Technologies Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $21.23, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. NAPCO Security Technologies Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (NSSC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $35.96. Our model-based fair value is $21.23, about −41% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NAPCO Security Technologies Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 81/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($28.48). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range ($15.45 to $28.48) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (NSSC) come from?
Earnings per share at NAPCO Security Technologies Inc grew +27.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.2 %, EBIT margin +15.1 %, tax rate −0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of NAPCO Security Technologies Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (NSSC)?
The market capitalisation of NAPCO Security Technologies Inc is $1.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (NSSC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NAPCO Security Technologies Inc is 8.34 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (NSSC)?
Earnings per share at NAPCO Security Technologies Inc are $1.03 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 34.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (NSSC)?
The dividend yield of NAPCO Security Technologies Inc is 1.6% (payout 55.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (NSSC)?
The net margin of NAPCO Security Technologies Inc is 23.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (NSSC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NAPCO Security Technologies Inc is 21.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (NSSC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NAPCO Security Technologies Inc is 17.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (NSSC)?
The operating margin of NAPCO Security Technologies Inc is 17.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (NSSC)?
Revenue at NAPCO Security Technologies Inc is growing +7.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (NSSC)?
Earnings per share at NAPCO Security Technologies Inc are growing +21.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (NSSC) hold?
NAPCO Security Technologies Inc holds more cash than debt, $77.7M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch NAPCO Security Technologies Inc in the live analysis
One click puts NAPCO Security Technologies Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Broad data
Sep 23, 2026