Napco Security Technologies, Inc (NSSC) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $1.3B
Napco Security Technologies, Inc
NSSC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +8.6% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 55% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 82/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($24.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $15.14 – $56.24 · fair‑value band $14.00 – $24.25 · the $41.36 price screens above the $18.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Napco Security Technologies, Inc (NSSC) currently trades at $41.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.46, implying the stock looks roughly 55.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 82/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Napco Security Technologies, Inc generated revenue of $197M at a net margin of 18.7%. Revenue grew 7.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $77.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $14.00 (bear case) to $24.25 (bull case); at $41.36, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at -55%, NSSC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($20.64) versus Asset-Based ($3.16). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 82 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of electronic security systems for commercial, residential, institutional, industrial, and governmental applications in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of electronic security systems for commercial, residential, institutional, industrial, and governmental applications in the United States and internationally. The company's access control systems include various types of identification readers, control panels, PC-based computers, and electronically activated door-locking devices; intrusion and fire alarm systems, consists of various detectors, a control panel, a digital keypad and signaling equipment; and door locking devices comprise microprocessor-based electronic door locks with push button, card readers and bio-metric operation, door alarms, mechanical door locks, and simple dead bolt locks. Its alarm systems include automatic communicators, cellular communication devices, control panels, combination control panels/digital communicators and digital keypad systems, fire alarm control panels, and area detectors; and video surveillance systems comprise video cameras, control panels, video monitors, or PCs. The company also buys and resells various identification readers, video cameras, PC-based computers, and various peripheral equipment for access control and video surveillance systems; offers school security products; and markets peripheral and related equipment manufactured by other companies. It markets and sells its products to independent distributors, dealers, and installers of security equipment. Napco Security Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Amityville, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Napco Security Technologies, Inc reported revenue of $182M in FY2025 versus $144M in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was $43.4M in FY2025, compounding +22.0%/yr from FY2021.
NSSC screens 55% overvalued. Compare with ASSA ABLOY AB →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- 3 Reasons We’re Fans of Napco (NSSC)
- TaskUs, Amentum, Napco, and Tetra Tech Shares Skyrocket, What You Need To Know
- Is Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC) A Good Stock To Buy Now?
Peer Group
Security & Protection Services · 113 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Security & Protection Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASSA ABLOY AB ASSAB | kr 348.40 | kr 269.97 | -23% |
| Verisure plc VSURE | €10.26 | €12.40 | +21% |
| Allegion plc ALLE | $137.24 | $127.80 | -7% |
| Securitas AB SECUB | kr 162.10 | kr 186.34 | +15% |
| Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 | ¥16.57 | ¥23.58 | +42% |
| MSA Safety Incorporated MSA | $169.00 | $118.51 | -30% |
| ADT Inc ADT | $7.06 | $17.10 | +142% |
| The Brink's Company BCO | $104.24 | $101.84 | -2% |
| Brady Corporation BRC | $90.16 | $73.43 | -19% |
| The GEO Group GEO | $29.46 | $32.36 | +10% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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