NTAW Holdings (NTD) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · AU · Market cap A$33.5M
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 10 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price +2.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 168% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (37/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.2921). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- A fairly wide model range (A$0.2921 to A$0.7279) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.1600 – A$1.54 · fair‑value band A$0.2921 – A$0.7279 · the A$0.1900 price screens below the A$0.5100 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
NTAW Holdings (NTD) currently trades at A$0.1900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.5100, implying the stock looks roughly 168.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, NTAW Holdings generated revenue of A$506M at a net margin of -2.1%. Revenue declined 12.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -12.6%. Net debt stands at A$130M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.2921 (bear case) to A$0.7279 (bull case); at A$0.1900, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -44% fair-value upside, at 168%, NTD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 10 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (A$2.51) versus Asset-Based (A$0.3300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
NTAW Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, markets and distributes motor vehicle tires, wheels, tubes, and related products in Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa.
Full company description
NTAW Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, markets and distributes motor vehicle tires, wheels, tubes, and related products in Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa. Its products include truck and bus tires; 4WD, SUV, and light truck tires; agricultural, off-the-road, and construction vehicles tires; 4WD wheels; industrial tires; original equipment tires and wheels; and budget tires. The company was formerly known as National Tyre & Wheel Limited and changed its name to NTAW Holdings Limited in April 2024. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
NTAW Holdings reported revenue of A$538M in FY2025 versus A$462M in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was −A$43.8M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +22.5 pp · buybacks/dilution −4.7 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Auto Parts · 641 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hyundai Mobis Co 012330 | 482,000 KRW | 678,420 KRW | +41% |
| Magna International Inc MGAN | 1,122 MXN | 1,172 MXN | +4% |
| Samvardhana Motherson International Limited MOTHERSON | ₹144.17 | ₹80.63 | -44% |
| Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD | ₹41,110 | ₹14,004 | -66% |
| Bharat Forge Limited BHARATFORG | ₹2,117 | ₹441.74 | -79% |
| Uno Minda Limited UNOMINDA | ₹1,158 | ₹426.57 | -63% |
| Schaeffler India Limited SCHAEFFLER | ₹4,135 | ₹1,412 | -66% |
| Hankook Tire & Technology Co 161390 | 73,600 KRW | 196,479 KRW | +167% |
| MRF Limited MRF | ₹131,025 | ₹125,849 | -4% |
| Sona BLW Precision Forgings Limited SONACOMS | ₹792.00 | ₹207.06 | -74% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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