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Northwest Pipe Company (NWPX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Northwest Pipe Company $67.35, price $103, upside -34.4%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Basic Materials · US · ISIN US6677461013

NP Northwest Pipe Company logo Broad data Sep 23, 2026

Northwest Pipe Company

NWPX · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $67.35 · Overvalued (−34%)
✓Quality 67/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +13.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
!Moderate moat 46/100
!Insider activity 42/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$149.94 $23.28 Fair Value $67.35 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $23.28 – $149.94 · fair‑value band $45.93 – $87.56 · the $102.62 price screens above the $67.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

NWPX Infrastructure, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells water-related infrastructure products in the United States and Canada. It operates through two segments, Water Transmission Systems (WTS); and Precast Infrastructure and Engineered Systems (Precast).

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NWPX Infrastructure, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells water-related infrastructure products in the United States and Canada. It operates through two segments, Water Transmission Systems (WTS); and Precast Infrastructure and Engineered Systems (Precast). The WTS segment manufactures large-diameter, high-pressure steel pipeline systems for use in water infrastructure applications, which are primarily related to drinking water systems. Its products are also used for hydroelectric power systems, wastewater systems, seismic resiliency, and other applications. Its products are also used for hydroelectric power systems, wastewater systems, seismic resiliency, and other applications. The Precast segment offers stormwater and wastewater technology products, precast, and reinforced concrete products, including reinforced concrete pipe, manholes, box culverts, vaults and catch basins, pump lift stations, oil water separators, biofiltration units, and other environmental and engineered solutions. It provides its products under the NWPX Geneva and NWPX Park brand names; and manufactures engineered water transmission systems and produces steel casing pipe, bar-wrapped concrete cylinder pipe, and pipeline system joints and fittings under the Northwest Pipe Company brand. In addition, the company provides solution-based products for various markets, including reinforced precast concrete products, lined precast sanitary sewer system structures, water distribution and management equipment including pump lift stations, wastewater pretreatment, and stormwater quality products. Further, it sells water infrastructure products to installation contractors. The company was formerly known as Northwest Pipe Company and changed its name to NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. in June 2025. NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. was incorporated in 1966 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Washington.

Stock analysis

Northwest Pipe Company (NWPX) currently trades at $102.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $67.35, implying the stock looks roughly 52.4% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $69.95 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $102.62 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $22.45, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $45.93 (bear) to $87.56 (bull), the price of $102.62 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Northwest Pipe Company reported revenue of $526M in FY2025 versus $333M in FY2021, a compound +12.1%/yr. Reported net income was $35.4M in FY2025, compounding +32.4%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $1.3B · P/E ratio 24.1 · P/S ratio 1.63 · EPS (TTM) $4.25 · Net margin 6.7% · Return on equity 10.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.6% · Operating margin 9.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 108% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −34%, NWPX screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $45.93 Fair Value $67.35 Bull $87.56
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.11 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $46.76 $67.08 $93.81 81
Growth DCF $47.15 $64.92 $86.93 79
Owner Earnings $34.77 $49.95 $69.93 77
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $46.76 $67.08 $93.81 81
Owner Earnings $34.77 $49.95 $69.93 77
5Y Revenue Exit $45.64 $70.94 $102.77 72
5Y EBITDA Exit $55.99 $90.13 $129.46 75
5Y P/E Exit $48.92 $77.03 $106.05 71
10Y Revenue Exit $44.35 $66.11 $94.46 67
10Y EBITDA Exit $51.58 $78.21 $112.90 68
10Y P/E Exit $47.47 $69.95 $96.72 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $24.99 $74.44 $98.57 65
Lynch FV $15.72 $22.45 $29.19 61
PEG = 1.0 $15.72 $22.45 $29.19 57
EPV $32.51 $37.03 $40.80 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $57.87 $77.16 $96.46 63
P/S Multiple $46.85 $62.47 $78.08 58
P/B Multiple $46.85 $62.47 $78.08 55
EV/EBIT $66.85 $89.36 $111.87 66
EV/EBITDA $70.63 $94.40 $118.17 67
EV/Revenue $47.52 $68.18 $88.83 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $20.48 $27.45 $40.97 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $47.15 $64.92 $86.93 79
Rev-Margin DCF $45.64 $71.24 $100.38 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income $32.92 $35.07 $38.65 71
ROIC Compounder $32.51 $37.03 $40.80 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $47.15 $67.35 $87.56 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 67/100

Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62

Profitability 44
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 62
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 74
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 84
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 49
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 63
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 77
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 89
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.3% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−9% → 10%

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.0% a year for the price and +0.7% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+13.6%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+0.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)+0.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+0.7%
Projected 2030 (sales)+0.9%

NWPX screens 52% overvalued. Compare with Nucor Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 415 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −34% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Top 25%
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 19% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.02× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 24.1× · Pricier than median
P/B 3.40× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 2.45× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 28.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 17.7× · Priciest 25%
PEG 2.77× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)96 · sector 3
PAST (return on equity)43 · sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)99 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 51

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nucor Corporation NUE $245.66 $116.05 −53%
Steel Dynamics, Inc STLD $233.99 $127.14 −46%
JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL ₹1,298 ₹1,103 −15%
Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL ₹190.82 ₹147.13 −23%
Reliance, Inc RS $386.95 $211.57 −45%
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 ¥5.73 ¥8.07 +41%
POSCO Holdings PKX $59.05 $68.58 +16%
Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co 600010 ¥2.12 ¥0.5500 −74%
Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL ₹1,175 ₹516.27 −56%
Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME ₹1,891 ₹771.10 −59%

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Northwest Pipe Company · Fair Value
$67.35 −52%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Northwest Pipe Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NWPX

Frequently asked questions

Is Northwest Pipe Company (NWPX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $67.35 versus a price of $102.62, about −34% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NWPX?
Our model-based fair value for Northwest Pipe Company is $67.35 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $102.62.
What is the quality score of NWPX?
Northwest Pipe Company has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Northwest Pipe Company (NWPX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $67.35 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $45.93, optimistic scenario $87.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Northwest Pipe Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $67.35, about −34% upside versus a price of $102.62 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $45.93, optimistic scenario $87.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Northwest Pipe Company (NWPX)?
Northwest Pipe Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $548M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Northwest Pipe Company (NWPX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Northwest Pipe Company would have to grow free cash flow by +15.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NWPX use?
Our models discount Northwest Pipe Company at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.12, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Northwest Pipe Company that is +15.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Northwest Pipe Company (NWPX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Northwest Pipe Company grew +13.0 % a year. The price currently implies +15.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Northwest Pipe Company (NWPX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Northwest Pipe Company (+15.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Northwest Pipe Company (NWPX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.62 %: that much free cash flow Northwest Pipe Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Northwest Pipe Company (NWPX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Northwest Pipe Company it is $67.35 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $102.62. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Northwest Pipe Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NWPX trades above its calculated fair value: price $102.62, fair value $67.35, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NWPX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($102.62); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($67.35). For Northwest Pipe Company the two are $35.27 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Northwest Pipe Company worth?
The market values Northwest Pipe Company at about $1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $102.62; our models calculate a fair value of $67.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NWPX?
Our models span a range for Northwest Pipe Company: cautious scenario $45.93, base $67.35, optimistic $87.56 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $102.62). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NWPX?
Northwest Pipe Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.1 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $67.35 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.8, P/B 3.4, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 17.7.
What is the PEG ratio of NWPX?
The PEG ratio of Northwest Pipe Company is 2.77 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Northwest Pipe Company (NWPX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Northwest Pipe Company (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 10.7%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NWPX from its 52-week high?
Northwest Pipe Company trades at $102.62, about 32% below its 52-week high of $149.94 and 108% above the low of $49.43 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $67.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Northwest Pipe Company?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, Tata Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Northwest Pipe Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $102.62, calculated fair value $67.35 (−34%), Quality Score 67/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NWPX calculated?
We run Northwest Pipe Company through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $67.35, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Northwest Pipe Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Northwest Pipe Company (NWPX)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $102.62. Our model-based fair value is $67.35, about −34% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Northwest Pipe Company right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($87.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($45.93 to $87.56) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Northwest Pipe Company

How large is the market capitalisation of Northwest Pipe Company (NWPX)?
The market capitalisation of Northwest Pipe Company is $1.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Northwest Pipe Company (NWPX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Northwest Pipe Company is 1.63 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Northwest Pipe Company (NWPX)?
Earnings per share at Northwest Pipe Company are $4.25 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Northwest Pipe Company (NWPX)?
The net margin of Northwest Pipe Company is 6.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Northwest Pipe Company (NWPX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Northwest Pipe Company is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Northwest Pipe Company (NWPX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Northwest Pipe Company is 6.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Northwest Pipe Company (NWPX)?
The operating margin of Northwest Pipe Company is 9.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Northwest Pipe Company (NWPX)?
Revenue at Northwest Pipe Company is growing +19.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Northwest Pipe Company (NWPX)?
Earnings per share at Northwest Pipe Company are growing +177% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Northwest Pipe Company (NWPX) carry?
The net debt of Northwest Pipe Company is $101M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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